- JANUARY 19, 2010, 11:35 P.M. ET
Independent Voters Abandon Democrats
To Win Back Vital Bloc, Party Plans to Retool Midterm-Election Message to Focus on Economy and Play Down Health Care
By
PETER WALLSTEN
WASHINGTONDemocrats' loss in Tuesday's race for a Massachusetts Senate seat is a stark illustration of how support from independent voters has collapsed, a phenomenon that's prompting party leaders to revamp their playbook for this year's midterm elections.
Independent voterstypically centrist, white and working-classbacked President Barack Obama and the Democrats in 2008. But Massachusetts is now the third Obama-won state in the past three months where independents have swung decisively Republican.
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Associated Press Justin Bailey waits for Democrat Martha Coakley, to arrive Tuesday at a campaign stop in Springfield, Mass.
Polls in the days leading up to the vote suggested the lead for Republican Scott Brown came about largely because of his advantage among independents over Democrat Martha Coakley.
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows that Mr. Obama's job-approval rating among independents nationwide is 41%. That's an 11-point drop from his performance on Election Day in 2008, when he won 52% of independents, and a near-20-point decline among that group from the heights of his popularity soon after taking office.
"The independents are the fulcrum of the American electorate," said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducted the Journal survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. "Simply put, for the Democrats and Barack Obama, the arrows have been pointing down."
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Associated Press Scott Brown, supporter of Matt Paturzo, in Wrentham, Mass.
With Ms. Coakley's loss, a debate erupted late Tuesday among Democratic leaders and activists over how to win back independents. Liberal groups, such as union officials, demanded the party stick to its guns on core issues such as health care.
But party leaders called for shifting to a populist message talking about the economy and bashing Wall Street. Democrats plan to blame Republicans for the economy and align GOP candidates with their unpopular national leadership.
"The message needs to be on jobs, fiscal responsibility, and reminding people that if you turn back the clock, you're going to get the same policies that got us into this mess in the first place," said Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D., Md.), chairman of the Democrats' House campaign committee. "You can talk about health care in that context, but clearly not leading with health care."
Democratic strategists worry the numbers paint a gloomy picture in states with competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races this year, especially those where independent voters hold sway, including Colorado, Wisconsin, Florida and Ohio. Those states weigh heavy on the White House because they will be battlegrounds for Mr. Obama's re-election campaign.
Massachusetts could be problematic again in November when Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick is up for re-election amid dropping approval ratings. Unexpected blue-state contests could erupt for Sen. Barbara Boxer (D., Calif.) and Gov. Martin O'Malley of Maryland.
Republicans in November won the Virginia and New Jersey governorships by winning independents by two-to-one margins. In those states and Massachusetts, polls showed that independents were anxious about the economy and the rising jobless rate, with health care a less important issue.
Associated Press Residents in Seekonk, Mass., cast their votes in a special election to fill Sen. Ted's Kennedy senate seat on Tuesday.
Celinda Lake, Ms. Coakley's pollster, said angry voters want someone to blame for lousy economic conditions and political infighting in Washington. "Unless we ascribe blame to someone, they're going to blame us."
The Journal poll shows independent voters aren't enamored of the GOP either, and could be lured back to the Democrats again if the economy improves. Only about one-fourth of independents feel positively toward either party, according to the survey.
In Massachusetts, Ms. Coakley's eleventh-hour efforts to adopt the populist strategyshe attacked Mr. Brown for his opposition to the Obama administration's new bank taxdidn't seem to work. Republican strategists say that the line fails to address voters' worries about joblessness and government spending.
See a timeline of the Massachusetts Senate race.
"The voters don't want a boogeyman; they want less spending," said Nick Ayers, director of the Republican Governors Association.
Ms. Coakley's supporters credited Mr. Brown with successfully tapping into anxiety over employment and government spending.
"There are a lot of people who've lost their jobs, even some laid-off Teamsters, and they're frustrated," said Steve Sullivan, government-affairs liaison for Teamsters Local 25 in Boston.