Keynesian Economics

NoDrama

Well-Known Member
The absence of falling real GDP and real wages supports the reported numbers and low inflation - even in the face of significant monetary expansion - as predicted by IS-LM. The evidence supports the official numbers.
Government need only spend as much as it would like to keep GDP positive, in fact there could literally be 100% unemployment and we could still have positive GDP, in theory of course only because such a scenario is IMPOSSIBLE in reality. Now we have come round full circle in the thread and are where we began.

Real wages are less than what they were in the 1970's.
 

mame

Well-Known Member
Real wages have been flat since 09 though, if inflation was higher than reported we'd see a rapid decline in real wages from 09- present. We haven't. That suggests that inflation has indeed been low.
 

Parker

Well-Known Member
Of course, but golds recent rise in price is NOT inflation driven, because inflation has only been 2-3% in recent years and golds rise has been much more. The huge increase in the price of gold the last few years is explained by negative real interest rates.
The dollar has lost its purchasing power by a large amount the last few years. That is why gold has skyrocketed.
 

Parker

Well-Known Member
If the inflation numbers are wrong, than real GDP and real wages MUST have been plummeting in recent years... Can you produce evidence of either? If not, than the inflation numbers are entirely correct (hint: real GDP and wages have not been falling). Also, the independent billion price project produces almost exactly the same number as the official CPI. The numbers aren't cooked. There is no conspiracy to hide inflation.
Wages are falling.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-02/falling-wages-threaten-u-s-rebound-as-consumers-may-retrench-on-spending.html

http://cnhinews.com/node/2423

Why bother with GDP? Dig a ditch using 10 workers, fill it up with 10 more and gdp rises. Nothing is accomplished. The money comes from the people. We spend it more wisely. We dont save and when we spend someone has to service our needs and make the goods we buy. That produces jobs.
 

Parker

Well-Known Member
Hold up. I'm *in* " BigAg , you're quite likely unaware of some of the stuff that goes on to create those same shifts and imbalances and take the profits created thereby. The manipulation is massive and the corporations are HUGE , and they do this at the expense of both the consumer and the small producer , the latter of whom they will absorb and then contract ,effectively turning them into sharecroppers.

These companies often own the various processing facilities too , and they;ve made a practice throughout the industries of shutting out the small acreage grower...example: certain olive processing facilities in Calif that shut out folks with less than ten sometimes less than 20 acres , along with the Sevillano and Manzanilla folks , the latter two going to the new machine picked sort of producing tree........guess who owns most of the acreage with those new trees and quarter million dollar harvesters.

Take a look at what you get for beef on the hoof as a producer , then take a look at what it costs in a supermarket. You know who is getting rich.
I take it you have seen first hand what subsidies do and who gets them. Unless you are involved with the small farms then you more than likely wont come across the subsidies.
 

Parker

Well-Known Member
really?
people buy these things.
You dont because you're a retard. Ive never given my money to people who have scammed others and failed. Government bailed those people out with our money.
The very same ones who government said they were going to help, the lower and middle class had their equity wipped out. And you want them to keep running the economy and fix what they broke? Like I said you're retarded.
 

Parker

Well-Known Member
The depression of 21 wasn't a liquidity trap; Different conditions call for different prescriptions. In the liquidity trap, adequate fiscal expansion can restore full employment. "adequate" is determined by finding the size of the output gap and filling it. Pretty simple stuff. If this were not a liquidity trap, the federal reserve would have already restored full employment, but instead monetary expansion is traction less in terms of restoring full employment - as predicted by the model IS-LM. Only about 1/3rd of the aggregate demand lost since 08 has been restored... So, we can ether wait a half dozen more years for that demand to return to the economy (sacrificing potential output and leaving workers unemployed for no good reason) or we can embark on another round of fiscal expansion in a time of record low interest rates and crumbling infrastructure. Which makes more sense?
None of the bubbles we've recently experienced, dot com and housing, as well as the great Depression as well as the mini depression of 1920-1922 were liquidity traps. No one was hoarding cash. I think lack of money and hoarding are different. I don't get what you are saying. The Fed sets the interest rates so that adds to my confusion on what you are saying. What am I missing on what you are saying?
 

NoDrama

Well-Known Member
None of the bubbles we've recently experienced, dot com and housing, as well as the great Depression as well as the mini depression of 1920-1922 were liquidity traps. No one was hoarding cash. I think lack of money and hoarding are different. I don't get what you are saying. The Fed sets the interest rates so that adds to my confusion on what you are saying. What am I missing on what you are saying?
The Fed doesn't set interest rates, they can only control them so far with the FOMC. At this point there is no policy they can undertake to keep the bond vigilantes from smelling blood, they are spent and have shot their last wad (With a twist).
 

mame

Well-Known Member
Wages are falling.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-02/falling-wages-threaten-u-s-rebound-as-consumers-may-retrench-on-spending.html

http://cnhinews.com/node/2423

Why bother with GDP? Dig a ditch using 10 workers, fill it up with 10 more and gdp rises. Nothing is accomplished. The money comes from the people. We spend it more wisely. We dont save and when we spend someone has to service our needs and make the goods we buy. That produces jobs.
No way bro. The first link is an opinion piece and the second is outdated. The most up to date data(which I've already linked to, from FRED) has real wages at about the same level as in 2009. That isnt a decline.
 

mame

Well-Known Member
None of the bubbles we've recently experienced, dot com and housing, as well as the great Depression as well as the mini depression of 1920-1922 were liquidity traps. No one was hoarding cash. I think lack of money and hoarding are different. I don't get what you are saying. The Fed sets the interest rates so that adds to my confusion on what you are saying. What am I missing on what you are saying?
We are indeed in a liquidity trap.
 

NoDrama

Well-Known Member
No way bro. The first link is an opinion piece and the second is outdated. The most up to date data(which I've already linked to, from FRED) has real wages at about the same level as in 2009. That isnt a decline.
You are right, wages are the same, they just don't buy as much.
 

mame

Well-Known Member
The Fed doesn't set interest rates, they can only control them so far with the FOMC. At this point there is no policy they can undertake to keep the bond vigilantes from smelling blood, they are spent and have shot their last wad (With a twist).
I'm actually in the process of figuring out just how much interest rates have been manipulated... Believe it or not, there are some fundamentals that explain at least a portion of low rates if not a good chunk of it. Ill get back to you when I don't have to post through my phone and we can discuss it a bit at length (and the lady is asking me put my phone down anyway.. Eh).
 

NoDrama

Well-Known Member

I'm actually in the process of figuring out just how much interest rates have been manipulated... Believe it or not, there are some fundamentals that explain at least a portion of low rates if not a good chunk of it. Ill get back to you when I don't have to post through my phone and we can discuss it a bit at length (and the lady is asking me put my phone down anyway.. Eh).
$16 trillion in DIRECT manipulation, lets not forget all the other manipulation that goes on that makes it all possible.
 

sync0s

Well-Known Member
$16 trillion in DIRECT manipulation, lets not forget all the other manipulation that goes on that makes it all possible.
Well, our candidate may be pretty much done, but let's hope he can amass enough delegates to squeeze that full Fed audit out of Mittens.
 

NoDrama

Well-Known Member
Well, our candidate may be pretty much done, but let's hope he can amass enough delegates to squeeze that full Fed audit out of Mittens.
I expected RP to lose this nomination, but that doesn't mean he hasn't awakened a fire in some other person who WILL make the difference.
A full audit of the Fed? Never happen, it would just be another whitewash. I would also like to see a full physical accounting of every ounce of gold in Ft Knox, which I suspect has very little but its been nearly 70 years since the last one and you hear very few people concerned about it.
 

NoDrama

Well-Known Member
I think the fiat system of economic governance is completely wrong. The most important difference between commodity money, such as a proper gold standard, and ‘paper money’, such as our present fiat money system, is the elasticity of the money supply. In the former, money is essentially inelastic, in the latter it is perfectly elastic. Most economists would say that elasticity is a big advantage. It makes fiat money, if managed properly, superior as it allows the Fed to stabilize the economy.

My argument is that this is false, and that the opposite is true. The elasticity of the money supply in a fiat money system, and the constant expansion of the money supply under present arrangements in particular, systematically distorts relative prices, disorients economic actors and destabilizes the economy over time. Imbalances accumulate, which obstruct further growth and which will be countered with accelerated money injections, destabilizing the economy further. Elastic money is unnecessary, suboptimal, unstable, and ultimately unsustainable
and history has shown that every fiat currency ever tried has failed miserably. Even a small 2% per year inflation rate eventually eviscerates the middle class as the heavy burden of taxes and unfunded wars causes market distortions, if you understand how exponents work it becomes quite obvious. The system must make enough money available each year to pay off the cash injection PLUS the interest due from the previous year. This guarantees inflation over the short, medium and long term, an ever widening ocean of constantly devaluing money.
 

Parker

Well-Known Member
The Fed doesn't set interest rates, they can only control them so far with the FOMC. At this point there is no policy they can undertake to keep the bond vigilantes from smelling blood, they are spent and have shot their last wad (With a twist).
They set the rates on what they lend to banks. The discount rate is what I was getting at.
 

Parker

Well-Known Member

I'm actually in the process of figuring out just how much interest rates have been manipulated... Believe it or not, there are some fundamentals that explain at least a portion of low rates if not a good chunk of it. Ill get back to you when I don't have to post through my phone and we can discuss it a bit at length (and the lady is asking me put my phone down anyway.. Eh).
Just look at how low interest rates were set in order to entice the mortgage lenders.
better listen to her -btw I bet shes better looking than anyone here.
 
Top