Covid-19
- Thread starter curious2garden
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tyler.durden
Well-Known Member
Thanks, Pablo. I don't know what my medical expenses are - through my manipulation of the system (i.e. very little reported income due to my black market lifestyle) I receive medicaid, so I don't pay for anything. I was hospitalized shortly during my first bout of covid, but I haven't even been to see a doctor for this second bout. I wonder if there is a way for me to see what my medical costs are in my situation?
It is also possible you were infected by a new strain. But have some cross-immune tolerance from your initial infection.Well, it's official. I contracted covid-19 for the second time (test came back positive)About 3 months in between the first and second time. I became a little lax after recuperating the first time, mistakenly convinced that I was immune for at least a year. I've been playing a LOT of gigs, and usually the attendees are not diligently following the recommended guidelines. The good news is that the symptoms are less severe this time around - the body aches are about as bad, but the lethargy is not as pronounced, very few chest pains, and I only had one episode of labored breathing (the only symptom that frightens me) lasting about an hour. I've had the symptoms for about 5 days and they are fading quickly. I attribute this to some remnants of antibodies from the first round. This doesn't bode well for a vaccine in my mind, quarterly boosters may be needed to supplement the initial shot. My current fear is that this virus may be here to stay, mutating and lingering like the common cold. That would mean there may indeed be a 'New Normal', that includes social distancing and PPE from here on in. Sure hope I'm wrong about that. Stay careful out there, and keep your guard up...
One of the problems with such a large reservoir of virus is that viruses mutate. Therefore we could have many different strains now. Some of which are genetically different enough we can catch the disease but close enough we have some T Cell reactivity.
We all need to wear respirators for a long time. We may not be able to control this with a vaccine until we have it almost out in vivo. I'm glad it's not as bad this time.
Ahhh it was the cost illness, thanks.
tyler.durden
Well-Known Member
Those are my thoughts, exactly. It's nice to read some expert verification, though. Thanks, Annie. We're very fortunate to have you as a resource!
Thank you Tyler that is very kind and realize I'm talking out my ass. I have as much of a ticket to this as Scott Atlas who has us all on the path to destruction via herd immunity and you have now experienced why herd immunity is likely impossible. This isn't chicken pox.
pabloesqobar
Well-Known Member
If we're referring to the same recent article . . . it's an opinion. It's not peer reviewed and therefore, not data. (According to 2 friends on this site who have insisted on peer review above all else. Until now.)
You're right, I do tout peer review to a tiresome degree since it is a valuable process.
This is economics and a case study. In medical science we don't usually peer review case studies, those are more editorial boards, and I'm not sure about economics and their review procedures.
However how they reached that valuation is explained here:
The Forgotten Numbers: A Closer Look at COVID-19 Non-Fatal Valuations
Our research estimates Covid-19 non-fatal economic losses in the U.S. using detailed data on cumulative cases and hospitalizations from January 22, 2020 to July
papers.ssrn.com
Essentially it's a research paper on cost/benefit analysis.
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doublejj
Well-Known Member
The death rate in the US from Covid-19 among African Americans and Latinos is rising sharply, exacerbating the already staggering racial divide in the impact of the pandemic which has particularly devastated communities of color.
www.theguardian.com
Covid-19 death rate among African Americans and Latinos rising sharply
Revealed: new figures show that both total number of deaths and per-capita death rates have increased dramatically
www.theguardian.com
pabloesqobar
Well-Known Member
It's economics by non-epidemiologists for starters. Their opinion of a default cost of $11k for an asymptomatic infection, $33k for non-hospitalized with symptoms, $512k for hospitalization for any reason with an infection, $1.1 million if in the ICU for any reason with an infection and $2.9 million if in the ICU on a ventilator requires peer review.You're right, I do tout peer review to a tiresome degree since it is a valuable process.
This is economics and a case study. In medical science we don't peer review case studies and I'm not sure about economics and their review procedures.
However how they reached that valuation is explained here:
The Forgotten Numbers: A Closer Look at COVID-19 Non-Fatal Valuations
Our research estimates Covid-19 non-fatal economic losses in the U.S. using detailed data on cumulative cases and hospitalizations from January 22, 2020 to Julypapers.ssrn.com
Essentially it's a research paper on cost/benefit analysis.
Another limitation is that the "study" is based on statistical methods instead of tracking and surveying rally participants. Given the state of contact tracing in the U.S , it's impossible to say how many cases were actually tied to the rally.
The report acknowledges that it is "preliminary work circulated to encourage discussion" and their estimate may be high.
But without peer review, it's crap.
doublejj
Well-Known Member
A Priest, An Editor And A Mariachi Player Talk Life In The Rio Grande Amid COVID-19
Their work and lives have been upended in this region devastated by the coronavirus, and where poverty and preexisting conditions like diabetes, hypertension and obesity are prevalent.
www.npr.org
"We don't know what's going to happen. And it's unfortunate because we're seeing a lot of death," he says. "I mean, I'm just flabbergasted with a small-town newspaper as we have here in McAllen with 70 to 80 death notices a day."
"You know, there's no place to play right now except the cemeteries," says Hector Guerra, the 63-year-old leader. "We're playing a lot of funerals. We're standing six feet away from each other. We're using our face masks. It's just gotten very, very sad and very serious."
"We played the funeral of a 40-year-old lady last week," he says. "Her husband came up to me and told me, 'Thank you so much. Do you remember that you played at our wedding 20 years ago?' and I was freaking out. I was so sorry."
It's an attempt to quantify the cost of a super spreader event using known statistical and economic methods. Everything is speculative until it's analyzed retrospectively. By then it's too late to change, and we may need to change course prior to knowing exactly how much this can cost us.
Although this is not yet peer reviewed, it does not render the data and the conclusions based thereon completely worthless. However I agree it shouldn't be uncritically swallowed. But possibly we should heed the lesson that there are real costs associated with this pandemic, and although we might not know the precise cost, the estimate alone might make us take heed and change course.
pabloesqobar
Well-Known Member
Absent peer review and verifiable contact tracing, it's complete speculation for anyone to conclude this is even a "super spreader" event.
They described using anonymous cellphone data. The same type of data the CDC epidemiologists use. So I'm good with that. Data doesn't have to be identifiable to be valuable especially when they have effective correlates. Anyway when it's finally peer reviewed and when this mess is over we'll know what was right and wrong.
Good discussion, you always bring up things I never questioned or saw. Thank you for giving me another way of looking at this even if we don't agree on it.
Singlemalt
Well-Known Member
Another way to compare it: Auto makers not declaring a recall because retrofit/repair costs will be prohibitively expensive and more so than potential lawsuits
DarkWeb
Well-Known Member
Where did you see that?
Singlemalt
Well-Known Member
No where, I was required to take qualitative and quantitative analysis. Bean counters are paid big bucks to consider all costs real, potential and imagined. In Biochem we consider energy and components; not a far jump to straight business and economics
pabloesqobar
Well-Known Member
Until now, you have never let anyone slide by with that explanation. It's a stark contrast. For reasons not entirely clear you have hitched your wagon to an academic report that has reached unsubstantiated conclusions without peer review. This is unusual for you is all.
You are absolutely right it is. This is my first pandemic.
Singlemalt
Well-Known Member
and the gov't bean counters are now extremely worried; this is going to be very very spendy