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An oil company's share value is dictated first and foremost not by the price of oil but by how much oil that company reports having in reserve. A company can't admit its reserves are now in decline or it risks seeing its share price drop relative to other companies who report more abundant reserves. In a May 2008 article entitled "Why Exxon Still Denies Peak Oil", financial analyst Jim Kingsdale explains this in more depth:
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The production sharing agreements between the major oil companies and various countries where they produce oil mean that as the price of oil rises, the share of production going to the major oil company declines. Thus, in accordance with their contracts, the oil company’s production shows a decrease even though its revenues increase.
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Oil companies don’t like this because Wall Street analysts, in their wisdom, become discouraged by declining production. It causes the analysts to downgrade the stocks, which causes the stock prices to fall. Executives get a lot of their compensation (often most of their compensation) via stock options that are issued every year and sold every year by the executives when the stock price rises. So falling production levels caused by higher oil prices causes the executives’ compensation to fall. Ouch. That’s real money.
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Executives, especially Exxon executives, have thought for some time that they could keep oil prices under control by pretending that Peak Oil is a left-wing myth. Or that it won’t happen until we’re all dead. Most executives (other than Exxon’s) have stopped that foolishness by now.
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Yesterday, Exxon reported a "plunge" in oil production - in the words of The Financial Times. Revenues and cash flow, mind you, were pretty damn good. But the stock was downgraded by analysts because their oil production declined and the stock price was down by more than $3. Q.E.D." [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
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Big Oil companies are thus motivated to over - not under - report how much oil they have in reserve. This fact, unfortunately, is lost on several commentators such as film-maker Alex Jones, talk-show host George Noory, and minister Lindsay Williams who insist "Peak Oil is a scam by the oil companies to artificially raise prices." [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
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If these individuals' claims that "peak oil is just oil company propaganda to promote artificial scarcity" were true, then oil companies such as Exxon would not still be denying Peak Oil.
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Companies such as Exxon have denied Peak Oil because they wanted to convey an atmosphere of abundance as this is conducive both to getting the public to keep on buying and to attracting investors. If people knew the truth, they would likely begin drastically curtailing their consumption of oil, which would drive the price down. Investors would likely take action similar to those taken by famed Texas multi-billionaire Richard Rainwater who pulled $500 million out of the financial markets after learning about Peak Oil. [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
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Other consumers and investors are unlikely to take similarly drastic actions so long as they perceive the current price spikes as just "more of the same old-same old" and are confident about the future. [/FONT]