The base has been poisoned to death.
Let's talk about some off Republican primary polling....
This is that thing I was talking about - the slow growth of deepening disgust at these people and the things they’ve done & tried to do. People have wondered why there wasn’t more outrage upfront, but consider: a tsunami is born when an earth movement of sufficient moment imposes an irresistible change, and the first visible sign is water receding.
Here, the movement event is Jan6, and the water in this case, are the inherently NOT dishonest, decent, self-respecting people who actually make an effort, old-GOP-affiliated voters, withdrawing & saying nothing as things unfold (still) & their understanding of the SCOPE of what’s happened grows increasingly uncomfortable.
Now we’re starting to see how far out the water has withdrawn…even though we won’t be able to see the wave of reaction for quite awhile. But there WILL be a wave. And it will be big.
Thing about conservatives who weren’t trained to be crazy, their moral compasses are okay - they’ll pitch in with the community when there’s a disaster of any kind, they generally try not to be assholes or cruel. Their self-respect hinges on that part of themselves. One thing I’ve said, over and over is that these decent, honest, people don’t like being lied to. They don’t like being deliberately deceived by people they think they know & believe they can trust. Violations of trust, confidence, hospitality ARE HUGE.
I’ve found it universally true that people who have their trust in another betrayed by that other sometimes turn on them; from my experience of the conservative life, actual holders of traditional values take lying, deceiving, betrayal real effing seriously.
IMO THAT is the wave that we will see: people who do indeed love their country, their homes & communities; people who see ever more clearly to their horror how they’ve been used against the nation; people who’ve been forced to accept - by the preponderance of the evidence - that this has happened because THEY trusted the wrong people, THEY believed the lies, THEY made the commitments that brought this shame, this disgrace, these crises upon them and their families.
And when it reaches land, that land will be scoured clean to atone for their failure as citizens to STAY AWAKE to the lies & cross-purposes around them. Not ENTIRELY their fault - they were deliberately deceived by highly-paid professional manipulators of public opinion who weaponized the best parts of themselves against them. For GENERATIONS.
I never thought I’d say something this dramatic, but we may see the complete destruction of the Republican Party in 2024, resulting from their complete abandonment by all but the GOOP still stranded in denial at that point. This could conceivably start w/ the failure of GOOP to seat a single senator, as well as the failure of their plans for a new administration.
‘24 has been called tough for the Dems because they have 20 seats exposed this year, but consider the mood - and then consider that backlash against the overthrow could throw seats into the D column…conceivably ALL 10 of them. Rinse & repeat for ‘26, 30 more senate seats come available. If I extrapolate conservatively from post-Watergate performance, there’s every reason to assume the party will not recover in time to save (all) their vulnerable seats in ‘26…the outcome of which will almost certainly be a veto-proof D majority.
The wave effect will be ongoing. Some will make it their life’s work to reverse the damage done, to make those responsible pay, to “ conserve better”. There are larger aspects, though.
There may be the first national conversation about who we are and what we’re okay with, and what we just won’t have - as a people, as a nation, as swirls of human culture, hope, & aspiration. THE FIRST since the founding.
Maybe the most far-reaching changes are likely to come from what I’ll call Catholic Schoolgirl Syndrome. Dunno where you’re from, but when I was in high school, Catholic girls were *notorious* for what they would get up to. I’ve been assured by a number of women who were Catholic school girls that they’re not just true, they’re barely the beginning.
So - what happens if the suddenly semi-woke who’ve been rethinking their life choices a lot since they were reminded the dog *can* bite, decide it’s time to say yes to everything once the things that held them together inside for so long start to dissolve?
I think they might just go wild. Do ALL the things they were told were wrong by the people who lied to them about so much for so long. Date boys? Date girls! Stop worrying? Learn something new! Try something only [boys/girls/poor people/rich people/this culture/that culture] do? Meet people who are different from you as if they were people!