Is being black going to help Obama as much this time?

Illegal Smile

Illegal Smile

Well-Known Member
The media just had a collective orgasm over the "historic black president" storyline. I remember even before he won (stole) the nomination, Dem Operative Susan Oestriche wrote a column basically chortling that Obama was immune because anyone who questioned or criticized him would be branded racist. And that's exactly what happened. McCain was afraid to go after him, preferring to lose gracefully.

But now it's different. Black president? Been there, done that. No big historic media focus anymore. Obama is a big ho-hum. He has completely lost the center who swept him into office in a pop-culture event. Now he has to run on his record, something he never even had before.

Well, we've proven we don't discriminate against blacks by electing a black president. Maybe we should prove we don't discriminate against Mormons next?
 
deprave

deprave

New Member
I think that we should prove that we discriminate against morons next and not elect someone who spends their spare time watching football.
 
U

ultraviolet pirate

Well-Known Member
the republicans need to rethink their strategy, maybe convince eric cantor to come out the closet and run... and i think obamas blackness has faded a bit, or maybe we are just coming to our senses and realizing that voting for him just because he is black is as dumb as voting for another person simply because they may be white.
 
beardo

beardo

Well-Known Member
No it wont, they won't be turning out to support him this time like they did last time.
 
Illegal Smile

Illegal Smile

Well-Known Member
beardo said:
No it wont, they won't be turning out to support him this time like they did last time.
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I don't know who you mean by "they." If you mean blacks, sure they will, in the 93-95% range. Overall turnout of blacks might be lower though. The problem is, in 08 Obama had a perfect storm of factors:

1. historic black president
2. ability to campaign against Bush
3. an electric excitement ready to proclaim him the messiah

But now, he has none of those. And because it, he will lose the huge chunk in the middle. That's who got him elected - voters who would not ordinarily vote democrat, and it carried him in states non-traditional for democrats. Polls verify that his followers have dropped from 60% to 40%. All the republican has to do is win back the traaditional republican states of NC, VA, OH, IN, FL and a few others, and it's over unless Obama manages to pick up a state he didn't win last time. But what state would that be?

Very, very difficult electoral path for Obama, and he knows it. That's why he should have dropped out and let Hillary have a chance.
 
mame

mame

Well-Known Member
Illegal Smile said:
I don't know who you mean by "they." If you mean blacks, sure they will, in the 93-95% range. Overall turnout of blacks might be lower though. The problem is, in 08 Obama had a perfect storm of factors:

1. historic black president
2. ability to campaign against Bush
3. an electric excitement ready to proclaim him the messiah

But now, he has none of those. And because it, he will lose the huge chunk in the middle. That's who got him elected - voters who would not ordinarily vote democrat, and it carried him in states non-traditional for democrats. Polls verify that his followers have dropped from 60% to 40%. All the republican has to do is win back the traaditional republican states of NC, VA, OH, IN, FL and a few others, and it's over unless Obama manages to pick up a state he didn't win last time. But what state would that be?

Very, very difficult electoral path for Obama, and he knows it. That's why he should have dropped out and let Hillary have a chance.
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Obama can lose several states that he carried in 08 and still win. I was looking at the 08 results a bit ago... he carried 365 electoral votes. His poll numbers are actually trending UP lately, with some putting him in the high 40's again. Assuming he wins the states that are solidly blue - ones that both he and Kerry won in the last two presidential elections (basically the west coast, rust belt and northeast states) - and he's short like 27? 28? Electoral votes. The Obama campaign believes there are a few ways to get those needed votes, with winning Florida(29 electoral votes) being the easiest way but not the only way. Throw in the fact that incumbant presidents almost always win and the fact that no one likes Mitt Romney and it looks to me like the Obama campaign is in very good position.

Also, the enthusiasm gap is closing; That's bad news for the Republicans... Especially considering that's the main reason Republicans won in the 2010 midterms. Consider this: in 2010, 25% of total votes came from old people, who generally vote R... That doesn't happen in presidential elections.
 
Illegal Smile

Illegal Smile

Well-Known Member
mame said:
Obama can lose several states that he carried in 08 and still win. I was looking at the 08 results a bit ago... he carried 365 electoral votes. His poll numbers are actually trending UP lately, with some putting him in the high 40's again. Assuming he wins the states that are solidly blue - ones that both he and Kerry won in the last two presidential elections (basically the west coast, rust belt and northeast states) - and he's short like 27? 28? Electoral votes. The Obama campaign believes there are a few ways to get those needed votes, with winning Florida(29 electoral votes) being the easiest way but not the only way. Throw in the fact that incumbant presidents almost always win and the fact that no one likes Mitt Romney and it looks to me like the Obama campaign is in very good position.

Also, the enthusiasm gap is closing; That's bad news for the Republicans... Especially considering that's the main reason Republicans won in the 2010 midterms. Consider this: in 2010, 25% of total votes came from old people, who generally vote R... That doesn't happen in presidential elections.
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I didn't say it wasn't possible. But if this were a football game, he'd be a 14 point underdog.
 
Pat the stoner

Pat the stoner

New Member
The whole illusion that we choose the pres is just that . Electoral votes decide who gets it . For whatever reason Obama did not do the job the American people needed him to . Neither has Congress . Black , white , latino or whoever . Seems like his blackness played a part in getting elected but now that is not going to be as big a deal for him 2nd time . Ron Paul is my choice - but it doesnt seem he is even electable . There is too much media bologny that goes on surrounding these candidates when what we really need is intelligemnt honest persons that will do these jobs effectively .
 
mame

mame

Well-Known Member
Illegal Smile said:
I didn't say it wasn't possible. But if this were a football game, he'd be a 14 point underdog.
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I think your bias is showing; He's in a virtual tie in polls with both Romney and Paul. I hope you aren't the gambling type, because the inability to leave emotion and bias out of your bets can cost you a lot of money.

If we're comparing this to a football game, the spread is probably less than a field goal at this point.
 
desert dude

desert dude

Well-Known Member
Much as I dislike him, I think Obama is the odds on favorite to win. If the choice is between Obama and Romney, well meh, I don't see much difference they both suck.
 
Illegal Smile

Illegal Smile

Well-Known Member
mame said:
I think your bias is showing; He's in a virtual tie in polls with both Romney and Paul. I hope you aren't the gambling type, because the inability to leave emotion and bias out of your bets can cost you a lot of money.

If we're comparing this to a football game, the spread is probably less than a field goal at this point.
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Ron Paul will soon be endorsing Romney. Not all his support will go to Romney but most of it will. Obama is slightly behind either in the polls and that's with the republican vote still split. I just saw a new poll here in Ohio - now 55% percent say Obama does not deserve another term.
 
londonfog

londonfog

Well-Known Member
Illegal Smile said:
Ron Paul will soon be endorsing Romney. Not all his support will go to Romney but most of it will. Obama is slightly behind either in the polls and that's with the republican vote still split. I just saw a new poll here in Ohio - now 55% percent say Obama does not deserve another term.
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If Ron Paul endorses Mitt..then Ron stands for nothing that he talks about... especially the Fed. Reserve
 
Illegal Smile

Illegal Smile

Well-Known Member
massah said:
When did Bush try to run for a 3rd term?
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I don't even know what to say to that. Most riu posters seem to lack a basic understanding of political science. A candidate is always able to run against an outgoing admin that was unpopular. Bush ran against Clinton and Obama ran against Bush. But Bush couldn't run against Clinton in 04 because it was 4 years old news. Same with Bush now. Obama still tries to run against Bush (because he doesn't have much else), but people don't want to hear that anymore.
 
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