Lockdowns work.

Fogdog said:

People really ought to listen to the experts. As one expert, Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases says, lockdowns work. Also, states that are opening up right now without an adequate testing and response plan in place are just plain reckless.

Fauci warns states rushing to reopen: ‘You’re making a really significant risk’
May 1, 2020 at 8:34 am Updated May 1, 2020 at 9:01 am

if governors rush to reopen when they aren’t ready, Fauci cautioned that the move would likely only set back the progress their states have made.

“There’s no doubt in my mind that when you pull back mitigation, you’re going to start seeing cases crop up here and there,” he said. “If you’re not able to handle them, you’re going to see another peak, a spike, and then you almost have to turn the clock back to go back to mitigation.”

Fauci warns states rushing to reopen: ‘You’re making a really significant risk’

The U.S. has counted more than 1 million cases of covid-19 and nearly 63,000 deaths. Social distancing remains the most effective way to stem the spread of the virus.

www.seattletimes.com

California listed the most clear set of guidelines. Trump might have listed some too but he's already sunsetted his.

The most basic guideline is, as Fauci said way back in late March:

“You can do it, but you absolutely must have in place the capability of going there, testing, testing in an efficient way — not take a test, come back five days later and find out if you're infected.”

“That's the connection," he explained. "I want to make sure, not just tests out there, but are the tests able to be implemented.”


In other words, real testing, real time with real processes in place to respond to outbreaks. Otherwise, the money we've invested in saving lives and the economy will be wasted.

Click to expand...

Rapid testing machines like these that can deliver results in less than an hour and the latest version gives results in less than a half an hour, on the spot. There are American manufacturers of similar equipment, and this is what Dr Fauci wants among other things.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Health Canada approves portable COVID-19 test kit
By Cassandra Szklarski | News, Politics | April 14th 2020
#311 of 471 articles from the Special Report:Coronavirus in Canada

Spartan Bioscience Inc. CEO Paul Lem holds one of his company's COVID-19 portable, rapid testing devices in a handout photo. Health Canada has approved the use of the device for testing for COVID-19. Handot photo by Spartan Bioscience Inc.

Rapid COVID-19 testing devices are on the way to remote and Indigenous communities where access and timely results have been hindered by distance and limited resources, officials said Monday after a new test kit was approved over the weekend.
Canada's chief public health officer, Dr. Theresa Tam, said the hand-held DNA analyzer from Ottawa's Spartan Bioscience will offer rapid test results for health services in rural and remote areas that otherwise must send their samples to laboratories in larger centres.
Dubbed the Spartan Cube and about the size of a coffee cup, results can be had in less than an hour and do not require the specialized expertise and equipment of a large lab.
more...

make sure i get this right for mr. miyagi:
We have literally shut down the economy over something as deadly as the flu

CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season.

lets' see: 60000 deaths in the first quarter of 2020, 34200 in an entire year.

influenza=covid 19. uh huh.

So the current plan in America is no national plan and domestic air travel will be cheaper than ever between red states and blue states...

320 million Americans
224 million is 70% herd immunity and the death rate slows significantly, but does not stop.
1,120,000 dead, if 1 in 200 dead @mortality rate of .5% (the most reliable info I can find)

One way or another America appears to be headed for herd immunity, even though the vast majority of the people don't want it and are going MOO very loudly on the way to the GOP slaughterhouse. People voluntarily self isolating and practicing personal distancing will help keep the numbers down, but with the federal response, Trump, no national recovery plan and with no testing worth a damn, It does not look good at all. Citizens are being sacrificed on the altar of the DOW and as long as the numbers are OK he can continue the con.

I hope treatments can knock the "numbers" down a bit, or it will be one Helluva summer and fall in America.

Here is where the real problems America faces resides, a real president would have acted early and grabbed the bull by the nuts, but Donald is handling him by the horns. It's all about dealing with Donald, the pandemic would be manageable with even minimal leadership and competence. But hey, 40%+ approve of his handling of the crises so far...
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
States Reopen Despite Falling Short Of Standards Set By Coronavirus Task Force | Deadline | MSNBC

Many states begin to reopen after some of the president’s top experts have warned not to until there is a 14 day period of decline in cases. Aired on 5/1/2020

“The best argument against Democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.”
Often attributed to Winston Churchill, a guy who knew how to lead and inspire.

DIY-HP-LED said:

So the current plan in America is no national plan and domestic air travel will be cheaper than ever between red states and blue states...

320 million Americans
224 million is 70% herd immunity and the death rate slows significantly, but does not stop.
1,120,000 dead, if 1 in 200 dead @mortality rate of .5% (the most reliable info I can find)

One way or another America appears to be headed for herd immunity, even though the vast majority of the people don't want it and are going MOO very loudly on the way to the GOP slaughterhouse. People voluntarily self isolating and practicing personal distancing will help keep the numbers down, but with the federal response, Trump, no national recovery plan and with no testing worth a damn, It does not look good at all. Citizens are being sacrificed on the altar of the DOW and as long as the numbers are OK he can continue the con.

I hope treatments can knock the "numbers" down a bit, or it will be one Helluva summer and fall in America.

Click to expand...

All of your numbers are off mainly because your stats lack attribution. You need to cite something.
The infection fatality rate won't be the same everywhere. The only peer reviewed IFR I have seen is the Gangelt study where a city in Germany has an IFR of .37%. Herd immunity begins at 50%.

Making predictions of how many will die is always wrong. Flat out, it is never correct. Even your number for the US population is way off. If you want to make a prediction despite this I will give you a hint, you need to base this off of age death rates. This is a disease that, by and large, kills the old and the fat. In fact, it's becoming clear that it's more of a coronary disease than a pulmonary. The number of people who are likely to die of this disease are dying, when they're dead, the death rate will diminish.

abandonconflict said:

All of your numbers are off mainly because your stats lack attribution. You need to cite something.
The infection fatality rate won't be the same everywhere. The only peer reviewed IFR I have seen is the Gangelt study where a city in Germany has an IFR of .37%. Herd immunity begins at 50%.

Click to expand...

The cruise ship study published in nature I posted before established the mortality rate at .5% and was a mix of younger crew and older mostly senior passengers. Germany had very low mortality rates most likely due to better medical treatment and favorable demographics. In the USA there are high numbers of vulnerable populations and if the medical system is overwhelmed mortality rates could be much higher that .5%.

As for herd immunity it has been established at 70% for this disease, the effects might start at 50% though, I posted a story on it a few hours ago, it had a link to the study.


New report says coronavirus pandemic could last for two years – and may not subside until 70% of the population has immunity
An estimated 70% of the human population may need to be immune to halt the pandemic, researchers say.
www.cbsnews.com

New report says coronavirus pandemic could last for two years – and may not subside until 70% of the population has immunity

As coronavirus restrictions around the world are being lifted, a new report warns the pandemic that has already killed more than 230,000 people likely won't be contained for two years. The modeling study from the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota also says that about 70% of people need to be immune in order to bring the virus to a halt.


For the study, experts looked at eight major influenza pandemics dating back to the 1700s, as well as data about the new coronavirus, to help forecast how COVID-19 may spread over the coming months and years. Out of the eight past flu pandemics, scientists said seven had a second substantial peak about six months after the first one. Additionally, some had "smaller waves of cases over the course of 2 years" after the initial outbreak.

A key factor in their prediction for the current pandemic revolves around herd immunity, which refers to the community-wide resistance to the spread of a contagious disease that results when a high percentage of people are immune to it, either through vaccination or prior exposure.

"The length of the pandemic will likely be 18 to 24 months, as herd immunity gradually develops in the human population," the report says. "Given the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2" — the virus that causes COVID-19 — "60% to 70% of the population may need to be immune to reach a critical threshold of herd immunity to halt the pandemic."

It will take time to reach that point, since data from blood tests show only a small fraction of the overall population has been infected so far, and a possible vaccine is still months if not a year or more away. It is not yet clear whether people who've recovered from the infection will be immune or how long such protection would last.

The report lays out several possible scenarios, including one in which a larger wave of illnesses may happen in the fall or winter of 2020 and then subsequent smaller waves in 2021. The researchers say this model — similar to the pattern seen in the devastating 1918 Spanish flu pandemic — would "require the reinstitution of mitigation measures in the fall in an attempt to drive down spread of infection and prevent healthcare systems from being overwhelmed."

Two other scenarios in the report involve either recurring peaks and valleys of outbreaks, or smaller waves of illness over the next two years.
more...

DIY-HP-LED said:

The cruise ship study published in nature I posted before established the mortality rate at .5%

Click to expand...

No. That is not how it works.

That is just for the cruise ship. It varies by region and demographic. That will not be the median global infection fatality rate. That number is unknown. You can't simply create a model by mixing and mathcing numbers from different studies. You can take a model from one study and apply it to another population, but you have to make it clear that it's a projection and show your work. Otherwise you're just posting sensational crap.

DIY-HP-LED said:

As for herd immunity it has been established at 70% for this disease, the effects might start at 50% though

Click to expand...

You seem to be under the impression that the virus will call it's forces into a ceasefire when the one person gets infected who puts the number over a certain percentage. it doesn't work that way. The virus simply begins transmitting more slowly because there are fewer uninfected hosts. It has not been established at what point the R0 is less than 1.

You're taking numbers from different studies to make your own model and say how many will die. You will be 100% wrong.

Fogdog said:

People really ought to listen to the experts. As one expert, Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases says, lockdowns work. Also, states that are opening up right now without an adequate testing and response plan in place are just plain reckless.

Fauci warns states rushing to reopen: ‘You’re making a really significant risk’
May 1, 2020 at 8:34 am Updated May 1, 2020 at 9:01 am

if governors rush to reopen when they aren’t ready, Fauci cautioned that the move would likely only set back the progress their states have made.

“There’s no doubt in my mind that when you pull back mitigation, you’re going to start seeing cases crop up here and there,” he said. “If you’re not able to handle them, you’re going to see another peak, a spike, and then you almost have to turn the clock back to go back to mitigation.”

Fauci warns states rushing to reopen: ‘You’re making a really significant risk’

The U.S. has counted more than 1 million cases of covid-19 and nearly 63,000 deaths. Social distancing remains the most effective way to stem the spread of the virus.

www.seattletimes.com

California listed the most clear set of guidelines. Trump might have listed some too but he's already sunsetted his.

The most basic guideline is, as Fauci said way back in late March:

“You can do it, but you absolutely must have in place the capability of going there, testing, testing in an efficient way — not take a test, come back five days later and find out if you're infected.”

“That's the connection," he explained. "I want to make sure, not just tests out there, but are the tests able to be implemented.”


In other words, real testing, real time with real processes in place to respond to outbreaks. Otherwise, the money we've invested in saving lives and the economy will be wasted.

Click to expand...

They're going to all be open long before there's a vaccine or herd immunity. I suggest all boomers isolate themselves so as not to die while the able continue having a society.

Budley Doright said:
That’s what I’m pissed about. I’ve done my part and isolated in good faith only to have imbeciles out and about making my effort a waste of fucking time. Yes lockdowns work if an actual fucking lockdown.

Click to expand...

Budley Doright said:
And if tested positive do we get to put a bullet between their eyes if they step outside their door?

Click to expand...

Bump this too lol

Bill Gates says US system produces 'bogus' testing numbers

abandonconflict said:

Bump this too lol

Click to expand...

Thank you for your concern. You give me a warm and fuzzy feeling showing so much interest in my well being.

DIY-HP-LED said:

Rapid testing machines like these that can deliver results in less than an hour and the latest version gives results in less than a half an hour, on the spot. There are American manufacturers of similar equipment, and this is what Dr Fauci wants among other things.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Health Canada approves portable COVID-19 test kit

Rapid COVID-19 testing devices are on the way to remote and Indigenous communities where access and timely results have been hindered by distance and limited resources, officials said on Monday, April 13, 2020, after a new test kit was approved over the weekend.

www.nationalobserver.com

Health Canada approves portable COVID-19 test kit
By Cassandra Szklarski | News, Politics | April 14th 2020
#311 of 471 articles from the Special Report:Coronavirus in Canada

Spartan Bioscience Inc. CEO Paul Lem holds one of his company's COVID-19 portable, rapid testing devices in a handout photo. Health Canada has approved the use of the device for testing for COVID-19. Handot photo by Spartan Bioscience Inc.

Rapid COVID-19 testing devices are on the way to remote and Indigenous communities where access and timely results have been hindered by distance and limited resources, officials said Monday after a new test kit was approved over the weekend.
Canada's chief public health officer, Dr. Theresa Tam, said the hand-held DNA analyzer from Ottawa's Spartan Bioscience will offer rapid test results for health services in rural and remote areas that otherwise must send their samples to laboratories in larger centres.
Dubbed the Spartan Cube and about the size of a coffee cup, results can be had in less than an hour and do not require the specialized expertise and equipment of a large lab.
more...

Click to expand...

Amazing, just imagine what the what future holds in small in home medical devices like this.

DIY-HP-LED said:

The cruise ship study published in nature I posted before established the mortality rate at .5% and was a mix of younger crew and older mostly senior passengers. Germany had very low mortality rates most likely due to better medical treatment and favorable demographics. In the USA there are high numbers of vulnerable populations and if the medical system is overwhelmed mortality rates could be much higher that .5%.

Click to expand...

tbh the german numbers give me a headache.

first of all, we had a national debate here why our clinical system was shattered by Corona (basically the outsourcing of state property to the free market caused the lack of catastrophy-backups due to capitalistic reasons.

Nevertheless, we effectively prevent the people from dying and I don't think the demographic change is responsible for this. Because, US, Ger, France, Italy, Spain have rather the same structure - if you say compare to Central Africa it look totally different.

So what is it? Ventilators? Staff? Rooms...?

Justin-case said:

Amazing, just imagine what the what future holds in small in home medical devices like this.

Click to expand...

More for remote locations, small towns, businesses, schools and governments, higher capacity machines are used in labs. This device can test while you wait, in a half hour, then you can isolate and contact trace. Along with serological testing and effective treatments we can reopen our economy here fairly quickly in an orderly way while monitoring things closely. The efficacy of the treatment options and how much they can whittle down the mortality rate and hospital resource requirements will determine the extent and speed of the economic recovery, here at least.

Kassiopeija said:

tbh the german numbers give me a headache.

first of all, we had a national debate here why our clinical system was shattered by Corona (basically the outsourcing of state property to the free market caused the lack of catastrophy-backups due to capitalistic reasons.

Nevertheless, we effectively prevent the people from dying and I don't think the demographic change is responsible for this. Because, US, Ger, France, Italy, Spain have rather the same structure - if you say compare to Central Africa it look totally different.

So what is it? Ventilators? Staff? Rooms...?

Click to expand...

Somebody did something right, most likely a high standard of nursing care, whatever they did they achieved a very low mortality rate compared to others. No doubt this will be the subject of studies where people take a deep look into this for lessons.