I thought this might be an interesting read for some of you..............
A presidential election prediction model developed by two University of Colorado professors points to a big win for GOP presidential contender Mitt Romney in November.
The model, the only of its kind to use more than one state-level economic indicator, has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1980.
It predicts Romney winning the electoral college by a 320-218 margin and winning 52.9 percent of the popular vote when only the two major parties candidates are considered, the Associated Press reported Thursday.
Romney, it concluded, will win every state currently considered by pollsters to be a swing state, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina.
The model even predicts Romney will win Minnesota and Maines Second Congressional District, the electoral votes of which most pollsters consider to be safe for President Obama. Nevada and Iowa are the only swing states it assigns to Obama.
Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble, explained Kenneth Bickers, a political science professor at the University of Colorado-Boulder who developed the prediction model with Michael Berry of University of Colorado-Denver.
The apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding the White House disappears, Berry noted, when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent. The incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states.
A presidential election prediction model developed by two University of Colorado professors points to a big win for GOP presidential contender Mitt Romney in November.
The model, the only of its kind to use more than one state-level economic indicator, has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1980.
It predicts Romney winning the electoral college by a 320-218 margin and winning 52.9 percent of the popular vote when only the two major parties candidates are considered, the Associated Press reported Thursday.
Romney, it concluded, will win every state currently considered by pollsters to be a swing state, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina.
The model even predicts Romney will win Minnesota and Maines Second Congressional District, the electoral votes of which most pollsters consider to be safe for President Obama. Nevada and Iowa are the only swing states it assigns to Obama.
Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble, explained Kenneth Bickers, a political science professor at the University of Colorado-Boulder who developed the prediction model with Michael Berry of University of Colorado-Denver.
The apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding the White House disappears, Berry noted, when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent. The incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states.
