Could it be any more obvious that with 50 states and 50 sets of rules and laws that the system is setup to milk the profit from the industry while its still viewed as more than a commodity?
If you think about it the price pressure is 2 sided...the supply keeps lowering the price and the rules and laws in place decide how the wealthy will take the profits before they are gone.
Assume the final state of things is cannabis can be shipped across the country like anything else that isnt hazardous. The Cookie Farm keeps their own genetics and sells the cannabis and extracts ONLY. No more access to genetics ala Monsanto.
To get there will take many years and each state has either setup the grift or havent yet found the right formula to convince the rich they can make enough yet. (see Canada thread)
More quality supply = lower prices as we see over and over
So it is only a matter of time before the market sets its own prices (see Washington) and those prices will be so low nobody will think of cannabis as anything special. The motivation to grow killer will fade as it already has (not entirely, but you tell me about all that killer bud IN THE STORES loL yeah right).
Xtsho imo is close to prophetic in realizing Oregon and Washington are the future, and perhaps even less profit and opportunity than that.
The only value I see in the future are proprietary genetics held and sold only as a final product.
So the market I envision is 98% mediocre average like what a cigarette is to tobacco...there will be a premium market but not like now. More like $50 ounces and $75 ounces. I cannot see $200 $300 $400 existing in the future state of the industry. It will pay more than corn, but maybe not when the cost of inputs is considered.
I'd like to think of myself as a prophet.
Seriously though. It's really not that difficult to see where the industry is going. Many get caught in some online echo chamber about how there is always going to be a market for "Top Shelf" cannabis and the only people that can grow it are some online guru's. There may be a market for "Top Shelf" but the price is definitely going to go down regardless of quality. Most people are going to pay $50 for an oz of good weed instead of paying $200 for some "Top Shelf".
Outside of the cannabis forums which is a very small percentage of cannabis users most are going to be completely satisfied with just good weed and will never pay premium prices for something better but not better enough to justify the price.
I've been saying this for a long time. Many don't agree with me and stay hung up on this "Top Shelf" argument. The average consumer just wants to get high. Most people don't have the tolerance levels people on the forums have and don't want some 28% high octane, can't do anything for the rest of the day weed.
I know quite a few people that get their weed from dispensaries and they're all happy as clams with the choices and prices available.
Too many get hung up on the "Top Shelf" argument failing to realize that most consumers out there don't give a damn and are not going to pay double or triple the price when they don't have to.
There is always going to be those that will pay a premium but most are not. It's like buying vegetables at the grocery store. They usually have a small organic section but most are buying the regular produce because it's half the price and the produce in the organic section is old, rotting, and not selling because most people are paying the 0.59¢ a pound for carrots instead of $2.99 for a single bunch of 6 organic carrots with the tops still attached. I've purchased both but now I only purchase the 0.59¢ carrots because the extra cost of the organic just isn't worth it to me. I think most cannabis users are the same.
