The renewable energy changes and policy

A Canadian conservative think tank, old type conservative for our American friends, the genuine article.

Tesla's American LFP battery plant will produce game changing new battery

VaSmile said:

My power rate is between $0.091-0.15/kwh battery holds 66kwh= $8-11 full charge 210ish miles
Gas is 2.80 210÷30mpg 7gallons x2.8= $19.6
Gas will only go up in terms of long term average while power rates will go down with the expansion of solar.
My house is not suitable for panels but my rents already got them up

Click to expand...

Update now that I've had some real drive time on my 2021 bolt. My peek power rate is $0.22/kwh( I try to avoid charging at peek times) and I'm hitting on average 4.4 miles/kwh
5 cents per mile at max Gas is back over $3/gal so equal to a ICE car with 60mpg. Heated seats and steering wheel are enough to keep me comfortable most days but if I turn on the heat my efficiency suffers. The extremely cold days noticeably slowed my charge times and efficiency but those are few in central VA. my goal is to hit 6m/kwh in the spring and fall months(will update)
Charging on a 110v outlet is slow af (45-60hrs for a full charge from near dead) but over night gets me about 15kwh which is enough for me to get to and from work with stops at kids daycare and school along the way. My first paycheck(finally go back to work monday)will go to installing a 240v outlet near my driveway materials will run me about $200(got electrician friends that will help on the cheap with install) which should drop my my full charge time to 8-12hrs.
I took a shift at my old job delivering pizza tonight and got home with my gauge reading I had 35miles range to spare so range anxiety is not 100% out the window but most people don't put 90+miles on the car a day, and there has been massive improvement since the 21 models. Overall I am happy with my choice to go electric. Would recommend to most people with the exceptions being 1. If you drive more then 60ish miles a day 2. Do not have the ability to regularly charge at home. 3 if your in an exceptionally cold climate.

VaSmile said:

Update now that I've had some real drive time on my 2021 bolt. My peek power rate is $0.22/kwh( I try to avoid charging at peek times) and I'm hitting on average 4.4 miles/kwh
5 cents per mile at max Gas is back over $3/gal so equal to a ICE car with 60mpg. Heated seats and steering wheel are enough to keep me comfortable most days but if I turn on the heat my efficiency suffers. The extremely cold days noticeably slowed my charge times and efficiency but those are few in central VA. my goal is to hit 6m/kwh in the spring and fall months(will update)
Charging on a 110v outlet is slow af (45-60hrs for a full charge from near dead) but over night gets me about 15kwh which is enough for me to get to and from work with stops at kids daycare and school along the way. My first paycheck(finally go back to work monday)will go to installing a 240v outlet near my driveway materials will run me about $200(got electrician friends that will help on the cheap with install) which should drop my my full charge time to 8-12hrs.
I took a shift at my old job delivering pizza tonight and got home with my gauge reading I had 35miles range to spare so range anxiety is not 100% out the window but most people don't put 90+miles on the car a day, and there has been massive improvement since the 21 models. Overall I am happy with my choice to go electric. Would recommend to most people with the exceptions being 1. If you drive more then 60ish miles a day 2. Do not have the ability to regularly charge at home. 3 if your in an exceptionally cold climate.

Click to expand...

Those Chinese LFP batteries will be down to $56/kWh by June CATL announced and they are building factories to make those cells in America and selling turnkey battery factories to Tesla, Ford and probably others. They are reported to charge well at -30F and BTW price parity for an ICE engine is about $80USD. Expect EVs to get much cheaper in a couple of years or less and expect government subsidies to disappear as market forces take over.

VaSmile said:

Update now that I've had some real drive time on my 2021 bolt. My peek power rate is $0.22/kwh( I try to avoid charging at peek times) and I'm hitting on average 4.4 miles/kwh
5 cents per mile at max Gas is back over $3/gal so equal to a ICE car with 60mpg. Heated seats and steering wheel are enough to keep me comfortable most days but if I turn on the heat my efficiency suffers. The extremely cold days noticeably slowed my charge times and efficiency but those are few in central VA. my goal is to hit 6m/kwh in the spring and fall months(will update)
Charging on a 110v outlet is slow af (45-60hrs for a full charge from near dead) but over night gets me about 15kwh which is enough for me to get to and from work with stops at kids daycare and school along the way. My first paycheck(finally go back to work monday)will go to installing a 240v outlet near my driveway materials will run me about $200(got electrician friends that will help on the cheap with install) which should drop my my full charge time to 8-12hrs.
I took a shift at my old job delivering pizza tonight and got home with my gauge reading I had 35miles range to spare so range anxiety is not 100% out the window but most people don't put 90+miles on the car a day, and there has been massive improvement since the 21 models. Overall I am happy with my choice to go electric. Would recommend to most people with the exceptions being 1. If you drive more then 60ish miles a day 2. Do not have the ability to regularly charge at home. 3 if your in an exceptionally cold climate.

Click to expand...

Some of those new compact cars are getting 10 to 12 km/kWh, but a bigger heavier pack will decrease your efficiency. I'm surprised the miles per kW was so low even in winter for such a small car.

DIY-HP-LED said:

Some of those new compact cars are getting 10 to 12 km/kWh, but a bigger heavier pack will decrease your efficiency. I'm surprised the miles per kW was so low even in winter for such a small car.

Click to expand...

You do a lot of research and the tech is moving fast, this is a 2021 and one of the cheapest EVs in the US market. I have never been able to afford "new" cars. I bought the one 100% on the strength of my credit score no money down while I did not have a job. I got a few CDs coming new over the next few months and expect to be be getting a good bit of overtime in the summer so I'll be paying this down and upgrading in 3ish years. I get 9m/kwh in heavy traffic because I leave lots of space and just coast

VaSmile said:

You do a lot of research and the tech is moving fast, this is a 2021 and one of the cheapest EVs in the US market. I have never been able to afford "new" cars. I bought the one 100% on the strength of my credit score no money down while I did not have a job. I got a few CDs coming new over the next few months and expect to be be getting a good bit of overtime in the summer so I'll be paying this down and upgrading in 3ish years. I get 9m/kwh in heavy traffic because I leave lots of space and just coast

Click to expand...

It is wise to wait, there appear to be a lot of small car options coming and by then prices should be lower than ICE cars. China is putting the heat on everybody from car makers to battery makers and they are gonna get in one way or another! One reason why Russia's prospects are so bleak with China, is they want global market access for EVs, batteries, solar and other shit they make.

I read and watch the reviews before making any purchase and might be ready for an EV myself around then, but I don't drive much, and recently got a new car in a bit of a crunch about a year ago after some drunk went through a stop sign and near Tee boned me.

Don't expect the dirt in your backyard to power your house, but surprisingly useful and powerful, dirt powered sensors and even computers! What next, farm fields might be full of them one day.

This is from 11 months ago, but in the light of those announced LFP battery price drops, this takes on more significance, since CATL appear to be wanting to duplicate the production of their winning super cheap EV batteries. Will the price be the same or close in America for identical technology in a couple of years?

If so EVs will be much cheaper than ICE cars and it should be the end of subsidies for batteries from the government, market forces will have taken over. It will force other battery makers to lower prices or force them out of business, BYD is another big Chinese player with their own LFP battery. A price war is expected and after that an inevitable shakeout of the also rans as battery startups and others go out of business or convert. Tesla is converting, they just need the new equipment and training, others will get turkey battery factories from CATL. It gives America full control of the supply chain and ownership and is a transfer of technology, like they transferred it from America. If there is any future trouble with China, their assets are here in your hands, and it gives American companies a way to keep up and eventually exceed them with better technology.

In many ways the rivalry with China is good for America and offers a challenge with their glove figuratively stinging Uncle Sam's face. With this sputnik moment America can either choose to go to the moon or go to Hell, up or down, which will it be?


Ford teams up with Chinese automakers to build $3.5 billion EV battery plant in Michigan

DIY-HP-LED said:

This is from 11 months ago, but in the light of those announced LFP battery price drops, this takes on more significance, since CATL appear to be wanting to duplicate the production of their winning super cheap EV batteries. Will the price be the same or close in America for identical technology in a couple of years?

If so EVs will be much cheaper than ICE cars and it should be the end of subsidies for batteries from the government, market forces will have taken over. It will force other battery makers to lower prices or force them out of business, BYD is another big Chinese player with their own LFP battery. A price war is expected and after that an inevitable shakeout of the also rans as battery startups and others go out of business or convert. Tesla is converting, they just need the new equipment and training, others will get turkey battery factories from CATL. It gives America full control of the supply chain and ownership and is a transfer of technology, like they transferred it from America. If there is any future trouble with China, their assets are here in your hands, and it gives American companies a way to keep up and eventually exceed them with better technology.

In many ways the rivalry with China is good for America and offers a challenge with their glove figuratively stinging Uncle Sam's face. With this sputnik moment America can either choose to go to the moon or go to Hell, up or down, which will it be?

Ford teams up with Chinese automakers to build $3.5 billion EV battery plant in Michigan

Click to expand...

At the same time, Ford is slashing Lightning production and laying off workers. Apparently they are losing $36k per EV sold.

BEVs are still evolving toward practicality imo. The shocking price and frequency of motor and batt pack replacements of Treasla vehicles spikes ownership cost even in places where juice is cheap.


Speaking of Skum Scooters,


I’m gonna run my Fit gasser as long as I can. It’s the value proposition for a renter in SoCal where a kWh costs avg 40¢ and the home solar subsidies have been gutted.

cannabineer said:

At the same time, Ford is slashing Lightning production and laying off workers. Apparently they are losing $36k per EV sold.

BEVs are still evolving toward practicality imo. The shocking price and frequency of motor and batt pack replacements of Treasla vehicles spikes ownership cost even in places where juice is cheap.

Ford cuts F-150 Lightning electric ute production as EV demand softens

www.newshub.co.nz

Speaking of Skum Scooters,

Tesla recalling almost all its EVs in US for software fix

Tesla is recalling almost all of its electric vehicles in the U.S. for a software fix as it faces heightened scrutiny from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). The elec…

thehill.com

I’m gonna run my Fit gasser as long as I can. It’s the value proposition for a renter in SoCal where a kWh costs avg 40¢ and the home solar subsidies have been gutted.

Click to expand...

These events are no surprise, especially with Elon involved in some of them. The tech is not ready and unsuited to behemoths that are used to pick up a bottle of milk at the corner convenience store and require several tons of steel to do it.

It's the trends, not the teething problems that ya gotta watch. The key enabling technologies and their prices, which is why I think that coming battery price crash in distant China might be important. Once battery prices fall below $80 then EVs become cheaper than a comparable ICE vehicle and those factories that make those kinds of cells are being built in America by CATL now, for American companies. Guess who objects?

The feds pay a subsidy of $35/kWh for batteries made in America now, think they will be around if these guys start selling batteries for $60/kWh and in China they drop to $50/kWh. You won't likely see a federally subsidized battery in and EV for $25/kWh USD.

DIY-HP-LED said:

These events are no surprise, especially with Elon involved in some of them. The tech is not ready and unsuited to behemoths that are used to pick up a bottle of milk at the corner convenience store and require several tons of steel to do it.

It's the trends, not the teething problems that ya gotta watch. The key enabling technologies and their prices, which is why I think that coming battery price crash in distant China might be important. Once battery prices fall below $80 then EVs become cheaper than a comparable ICE vehicle and those factories that make those kinds of cells are being built in America by CATL now, for American companies. Guess who objects?

The feds pay a subsidy of $35/kWh for batteries made in America now, think they will be around if these guys start selling batteries for $60/kWh and in China they drop to $50/kWh. You won't likely see a federally subsidized battery in and EV for $25/kWh USD.

Click to expand...

I’m still looking for a home battery below $250/kWh.

I’m finding stuff at about $1000/kWh.

cannabineer said:

I’m still looking for a home battery below $250/kWh.

Click to expand...

Wait awhile and live with getting screwed in CA on net metering if you had solar panels. Those battery factories that are springing up will have an impact, international prices for such technologies tend to level off quickly between regions, one way or another. Home battery prices will fall with EV battery prices since both use identical LFP cells. If cheap EVs hit the roads of America in a few years they won't be worth repairing in many cases, but the long life LFP battery might be worth something and could find a second life with a kit as a home battery, a big one too.

DIY-HP-LED said:

Wait awhile and live with getting screwed in CA on net metering if you had solar panels. Those battery factories that are springing up will have an impact, international prices for such technologies tend to level off quickly between regions, one way or another. Home battery prices will fall with EV battery prices since both use identical LFP cells. If cheap EVs hit the roads of America in a few years they won't be worth repairing in many cases, but the long life LFP battery might be worth something and could find a second life with a kit as a home battery, a big one too.

Click to expand...

Show me an existing product that comes somewhere near your numbers.

cannabineer said:

Show me an existing product that comes somewhere near your numbers.

Click to expand...

The whole point is they are not my numbers, they are CATL's numbers for June, or so they say.

I'm looking at the implications for that, since those same factories are being built by CATL for American companies, producing the same cells with a North American supply chain and they are due to come online in a couple of years with serious production rates.

What does this do to domestic battery wannabes that depend on that 35/kWh federal battery subsidy?
The feds are not gonna be giving subsidies of $35 on $60/kWh, that would make the price $25/kWh!

DIY-HP-LED said:

The whole point is they are not my numbers, they are CATL's numbers for June, or so they say.

I'm looking at the implications for that, since those same factories are being built by CATL for American companies, producing the same cells with a North American supply chain and they are due to come online in a couple of years with serious production rates.

What does this do to domestic battery wannabes that depend on that 35/kWh federal battery subsidy?
The feds are not gonna be giving subsidies of $35 on $60/kWh, that would make the price $25/kWh!

Click to expand...

Still, what’s the cheapest home battery you can find, and what’s the multiple compared to prices quoted by a producer at its railhead (with wholesalers certain to mark the factory price up)?

Find me your best right-now pick in a home battery at retail.

It ain't all roses in America either! Maybe those battery rebates will still be around if they have those cheapo LFP batteries to make EVs irresistible on price.


Ford electric car sales crash 50% in January after Ford reduce production

Nor in Europe

These things are the size of warehouses and can store a week's worth of baseload power, but they do not respond well to fluctuating demand, but super capacitors and other batteries can take care of that. A great place to dump extra renewables energy for night or cloudy weeks.


Iron-Air Technology: A Sustainable Energy Storage Solution

• Iron-air batteries are emerging as a pivotal innovation in energy storage, capable of significantly enhancing renewable energy integration and grid stability.
• Form Energy's investment in a $760 million manufacturing facility underscores the economic promise and industry confidence in iron-air battery technology.
• The use of abundant iron and a low environmental footprint positions iron-air batteries as a viable alternative to traditional energy storage methods, promoting energy independence and sustainability.

In a move as bold as it is brilliant, Form Energy recently announced plans for a whopping $760 million manufacturing facility. Who knew rust could prove so lucrative? This significant investment underscores the growing confidence in the viability of iron-air batteries, which many see as a game-changer in the energy storage industry. It also highlights the potential of these batteries to revolutionize how we store and use energy, particularly in the context of renewable energy integration and grid stability.

A “New Kid” on the Battery Block
Why exactly are iron-air batteries causing such a stir? Apart from making scientists and environmentalists giddy with excitement, these batteries use one of the most common elements on Earth – iron. it’s the same element used in everything from skyscrapers to frying pans. Now, it could power our future. Iron’s ubiquity is a key factor in the appeal of iron-air batteries. Indeed, its availability and low cost make it an attractive alternative to more costly materials like lithium and cobalt. Despite their scarcity, both of these elements see widespread use in traditional lithium-ion batteries.

Furthermore, iron has a significantly lower environmental footprint, which is crucial in our ongoing efforts to reduce the impact of technology on the planet. In that way, the shift toward iron-air batteries represents a more sustainable approach to energy storage – one that leverages abundant and eco-friendly materials. This not only benefits the environment but also reduces dependency on rare and often geopolitically sensitive materials, contributing to a battery market that can foster greater energy independence and security....

When it comes to renewables and EVs more than economic factors are at play, geopolitical ones are big factors too. All countries want energy independence and security, particularly those that spend a lot of money on imported petroleum for electricity generation and light transportation, agriculture too with electric tractors and solar going a long way to electrify the farms of the nation. The closer to the equator they are the more sense it makes, the less storage they need and the lower the costs. The cheaper batteries get, the more feasible renewables become and wind and solar are the cheapest forms of power generation but are variable and that is where grid scale batteries of several kinds can help from iron air to several flow types. Regular lithium and sodium-based batteries will be used too, both for the grid and home energy storage and make renewables generate 100% of the power needs of most countries, they will probably still keep some gas turbine generators to charge batteries, just in case.

Solar, batteries and EVs are now intertwined with national and economic security and will be more so in the future. There have been several studies and reports that show we can do it with renewables in most places and come close in the rest. Heat pumps take care of heating and cooling while EVs will provide the cars and farm tractors among other things. Very little imported oil and gasoline for most places maybe 90% less for some countries and eventually most. For most national governments it is a very attractive proposition energy security and insulation from volatile swings in price caused by wars and other bullshit. Saving billions in annual costs just to keep the lights on and the cars and trucks on the road, money that can be spent on other things, like paying off the new grid. Cheap Chinese EVs will have a big impact on small countries, though India wants in on the battery and EV business too and has 100% tariffs on imported cars. They will be buying those $5,000 EVs and snapping them up in developing countries that are going renewables, even with micro independent grids.

It's not just the rich and middle countries that this technology will impact the most, one or two solar panels on the roof and a small home battery can do a lot for people in poor villages, as can a community microgrid as aid projects that are sustainable for the people using the technology. Just a small system can provide lights at night, TV and internet and power for cooking during the day, maybe even a small fridge. It's not much but it's how lives start to be improved and over years they will have more power and better house and more of the things we enjoy or take for granted and live better because of it with many more options. To make a more sustainable world we will need to make it a richer world for those who have the least. In 10 years, some billionaire with a heart might buy a lot of such small systems for not too much cash and start passing them out, as will aid agencies. A few super cheap solar panels and a small cheap home battery with power sockets might be a pretty low cost, high value aid item in a decade or less. We send enough computers to Africa every year as scrap for everybody on the continent to have one, but new tablets will be dirt cheap too, if mass produced for schools, in lieu of textbooks and able to do video for remote learning etc.