The renewable energy changes and policy

DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
big bud man 413 said:
That sucks.
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Like smoking, when the number of ICE vehicles drop below a certain point, the government won't give a shit about taxing gasoline, Gas stations will be harder to find, they are the weak link in the petroleum value chain with the least profit and many depend on volume sales.

In ten years if you wanna take your pampered 60s muscle car out for a weekend cruise you might have to buy a couple of 5-gallon cans of gas from the local supplier to do it.
 
cannabineer

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
DIY-HP-LED said:
Like smoking, when the number of ICE vehicles drop below a certain point, the government won't give a shit about taxing gasoline, Gas stations will be harder to find, they are the weak link in the petroleum value chain with the least profit and many depend on volume sales.

In ten thirty years if you wanna take your pampered 60s muscle car out for a weekend cruise you might have to buy a couple of 5-gallon cans of gas from the local supplier to do it.
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fify
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
cannabineer said:
fify
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Depends on where you live, some urban stations will close before rural ones, but margins are thin and they depend on volume to stay in business, if volume drops because half of the cars in their particular area are EVs like on the way from the burbs to the city for instance, then they are screwed. They are the weakest link in the supply chain, the big boys make all the real bucks, but they are where the rubber meets the road.
 
cannabineer

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
DIY-HP-LED said:
Depends on where you live, some urban stations will close before rural ones, but margins are thin and they depend on volume to stay in business, if volume drops because half of the cars in their particular area are EVs like on the way from the burbs to the city for instance, then they are screwed. They are the weakest link in the supply chain, the big boys make all the real bucks, but they are where the rubber meets the road.
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I still think your ten years are wildly off the mark.

Before it can happen, 100% of heavy trucking needs to be carbon-zero, coast to coast.

That’s the real hurdle, not passenger vehicles. And it will take a long time, for one of your go-to reasons: market forces.
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
cannabineer said:
I still think your ten years are wildly off the mark.

Before it can happen, 100% of heavy trucking needs to be carbon-zero, coast to coast.

That’s the real hurdle, not passenger vehicles. And it will take a long time, for one of your go-to reasons: market forces.
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I'm just saying if the price of EVs drop as I expect over the next 3 years, then in a decade there will be a lot more of them on the road and fewer ICE cars. In some regions there will be more EVs than in others and gas stations might also be only at truck stops, as diesel would be the last to go in road transportation. More EVs equal less gas stations because if they only sell gas as many urban locations do, their volumes will drop below sustainable levels.
 
cannabineer

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
DIY-HP-LED said:
I'm just saying if the price of EVs drop as I expect over the next 3 years, then in a decade there will be a lot more of them on the road and fewer ICE cars. In some regions there will be more EVs than in others and gas stations might also be only at truck stops, as diesel would be the last to go in road transportation. More EVs equal less gas stations because if they only sell gas as many urban locations do, their volumes will drop below sustainable levels.
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I half-accept that. Right now there are four gas stations in my little town and a dozen in the neighboring (in desert distance terms) hamlet of Mojave, primarily because it is near a highway intersection in a fairly blank part of the map.

Cities will see heavy attrition of fuel stations first. They tend to have hundreds, and city commuters are the best fit to current EVs. So in ten years, I expect our metro areas to have perhaps 80% EVs and a corresponding charger infrastructure. Part of that will be favorable tax structures for EV-only operators as government gets behind the push to cut emissions.

But my subjective call is that it won’t be 99% EVs, and rather less than 80% in exurban and rural areas for at least until 2040, barring aggressive legislation with no Republican obstruction.

Running the numbers of my example above, hydrocarbon fuel either has to be pushed past $12/gallon, or power has to become reliably much cheaper, to make ordinary people and not today’s early adopters go EV.

Two things that will really help the EV cause are batteries that last longer (and you’ve shared some tantalizing prospects with us) and motors that either last a full order of magnitude longer than the current 80kmi, or are an order of magnitude cheaper to swap out than the current ones (the record-holding Tesla with 1.2 million miles is on its 15th motor) (check these numbers!)


All these factors need to converge to make EVs the value proposition.
 
V

VaSmile

Well-Known Member
DIY-HP-LED said:
I'm just saying if the price of EVs drop as I expect over the next 3 years, then in a decade there will be a lot more of them on the road and fewer ICE cars. In some regions there will be more EVs than in others and gas stations might also be only at truck stops, as diesel would be the last to go in road transportation. More EVs equal less gas stations because if they only sell gas as many urban locations do, their volumes will drop below sustainable levels.
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Gas at retail level is sold at little to no profit. I'm rather interested in what the downstream effects of what a gas/diesel free community will have on places like convenient stores will be. I have a hard time believing that places like 7/11 and wawa will be able to compete with smokeshops/groceries/restaurants when they no longer carry a strategic product.
 
cannabineer

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
VaSmile said:
Gas at retail level is sold at little to no profit. I'm rather interested in what the downstream effects of what a gas/diesel free community will have on places like convenient stores will be. I have a hard time believing that places like 7/11 and wawa will be able to compete with smokeshops/groceries/restaurants when they no longer carry a strategic product.
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Your post appears to contain the answer. Situate the convenience store in a grass station.
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
VaSmile said:
Gas at retail level is sold at little to no profit. I'm rather interested in what the downstream effects of what a gas/diesel free community will have on places like convenient stores will be. I have a hard time believing that places like 7/11 and wawa will be able to compete with smokeshops/groceries/restaurants when they no longer carry a strategic product.
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A lot depends on if home charging overnight becomes popular, in Norway most people top up at home for cheap and they have the highest EV adoption rate. Increasing people will have roof top solar and home batteries, if they don't have net metering with battery prices dropping. If you can top up at night from home and have the setup, then transportation and all energy costs can be free. When was the last time you were able to compete for gasoline or electricity with oil companies or utilities? Now you can and in the future, it will be even more feasible and might raise your standard of living and give you personal energy security. Things are gonna happen faster over the next 5 years I figure.
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member

EV Myths You Thought Were Facts

Electric vehicles are taking the world by storm, sparking conversations and controversies alike. Are they the green champions of the road or hidden culprits of environmental harm? Can they truly replace the roar of petrol engines without missing a beat? And is our infrastructure ready to support this electric revolution, or will it buckle under the pressure?

In this video, we're plugging into the heart of these debates.
We'll explore what happens when innovation meets the open road, and whether the journey towards electric mobility is as smooth as the ride in an EV itself. Join me as we navigate through the electric landscape, separating fact from fiction with solid evidence and expert insights. It's time to discover the real story behind electric vehicles. Let's roll out!
 
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