No, drilling would not be happening now. Those lands that are already leased almost definitely have oil. But the oil companies have no great need to pump it. Why? Because our refineries are running at 95+ percent capacity already. Pump umpteen billion barrels a second and it doesn't matter if you don't have the refineries to do anything with it. Which they don't, because instead of reinvesting their substantial profits, they are giving those profits to their shareholders. Which makes the shareholders all warm and gooey inside, I'm sure, but doesn't do a thing for us at the pump. Translation: with record profits now and for the foreseeable future, what incentive do the oil companies have to invest in more refineries? That's right, none.
This absolutely means that opening up our beaches will mean nothing. They might drill up our beaches because the oil there is easier to get to, but without more refineries, there still won't be more oil. In other words, instead of drilling the oil a couple of hundred miles away, they'll move their platforms closer to shore where it's easier for them. There will be the same amount of oil though (the amount the refineries can handle), but our beaches will be fucked instead of some area a couple of hundred miles off the coast. Awesome plan. I'm betting that it's someone seriously pro-big business that proposed this. Or someone who doesn't understand how things work. Or both.
Perhaps it is because our refineries are already doing all they can that the oil companies never asked to drill off our shores. Maybe they understand the situation. Lack of raw crude isn't the entirety of our problem. Lack of refining capacity is what's actually killing us at the moment. But later there *will* be a shortage of raw crude, which is why they don't want to spend billions on more refineries: because later on, when raw crude *is* scarce, they won't need all that refining capacity. It's more profitable for them to just keep the current refining capacity, make oodles of money, and just wait for the supply of raw crude to drop down to match today's refining capacity. That makes for happy oil companies and happy shareholders and sad suckers at the pump. But that's capitalism for ya.