"In January 2001, CBO’s baseline projections showed a cumulative surplus of $5.6 trillion for
the 2002–2011 period. The actual results have differed from those projections because of
subsequent policy changes, economic developments that differed from CBO’s forecast, and
other factors. As a result, the federal government ran deficits from 2002 through 2011. The
cumulative deficit over the 10-year period amounted to $6.1 trillion—a swing of $11.7 trillion
from the January 2001 projections." -Congressional Budget Office
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/41463
"In June 2012, the Congressional Budget Office summarized the cause of change between its January 2001 estimate of a $5.6 trillion cumulative surplus between 2002 and 2011 and the actual $6.1 trillion cumulative deficit that occurred, an unfavorable "turnaround" or debt increase of $11.7 trillion. Tax cuts and slower-than-expected growth reduced revenues by $6.1 trillion and spending was $5.6 trillion higher. Of this total, the CBO attributes 72% to legislated tax cuts and spending increases and 27% to economic and technical factors. Of the latter, 56% occurred from 2009 to 2011.
The difference between the projected and actual debt in 2011, the budget office said, could be attributed largely to:
$3.5 trillion – Economic changes (including lower than expected tax revenues and higher safety net spending due to recession)
$1.6 trillion – Bush Tax Cuts (EGTRRA and JGTRRA), primarily tax cuts but also some smaller spending increases
$1.5 trillion – Increased non-defense discretionary spending
$1.4 trillion – Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq
$1.4 trillion – Incremental interest due to higher debt balances
$0.9 trillion – Obama stimulus and tax cuts (ARRA and Tax Act of 2010)
The U.S. budget situation has deteriorated significantly since 2001, when the CBO forecast average annual surpluses of approximately $850 billion from 2009–2012. The average deficit forecast in each of those years as of June 2009 was approximately $1,215 billion. The New York Times analyzed this roughly $2 trillion "swing", separating the causes into four major categories along with their share:
Recessions or the business cycle (37%);
Policies enacted by President Bush (33%);
Policies enacted by President Bush and supported or extended by President Obama (20%); and
New policies from President Obama (10%)."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_public_debt#2001_vs._2011
The stimulus was $600 billion, the spending gap was $2.9 trillion. You haven't done the math.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Recovery_and_Reinvestment_Act_of_2009