ttystikk
Well-Known Member
I'll give you the benefit of personal experience, with one caveat; how will global warming affect those high altitude steering currents going forward?
Good Morning/Weather Report Suite
- Thread starter Larry {the} Gardener
- Start date
sandhill larry
Well-Known Member
That was my point. We don't know if it will change it or not. If it does, everything goes out the window.
Hurricanes go in a 20-30 year cycle. Most waterfront expansion has happened when it was in the calm cycle.
sandhill larry
Well-Known Member
When I was a teenager we went back and forth to Longmont Co to see Sister a lot. Once we were in Kansas at a campground, and I was talking to the local kids. I said something about the wind storm, and they looked at me like I was crazy. They said, "it's always like this here."
ttystikk
Well-Known Member
I remember that 2004, the year I lived there, was a peak year.
Fun coincidence: Bill Gray used to enjoy something of the status of a demigod in SoFla, as the scientist who made the yearly hurricane forecast. His office was right here at the Colorado State University Atmospheric Science Center, literally right up the road from my house. Years ago, I even delivered computer equipment there.
ttystikk
Well-Known Member
They were just happy they didn't live in Wyoming.
If you make it back this way, look me up.
ttystikk
Well-Known Member
Even if these steering currents don't change much, I'd still expect the hurricanes themselves to be noticeably more powerful and possibly more numerous. My guess would be an average of .5-1 category stronger, on average. This is in line with my own personal suspicion that we'll see a couple of degrees of additional warmth observed in sea surface temperatures due to global warming from now on compared to decades past. That's a big deal in terms of available energy for storms to form, organize and grow.
Similarly, I'm expecting to see more tornadoes in my neck of the woods for similar reasons of additional available heat. Weld County, CO is just east of here and while it isn't customarily thought of as part of Tornado Alley, the fact remains that it holds the record for most tornadoes recorded in any county, worldwide.
Global warming is already being felt here as a general movement of climate bands to the north such that the climate familiar to the northern New Mexicans of my childhood is now experienced here in northern Colorado, and I'm betting it's bringing Tornado Alley with it.
full of purple
Well-Known Member
Guess I'm to early it's still dark outside..
sandhill larry
Well-Known Member
Will do. My niece and her family are in one of the Denver suburbs. But I have a hell of a time getting anywhere. Sister is retiring at the end of the year, and she will be going out a few times a year to see the kids. I might could slip in a speed trip one of these days.
sandhill larry
Well-Known Member
It was mostly dark out when I went into the bush at 0530 this morning. Foggy too.
sandhill larry
Well-Known Member
Good afternoon. We had a couple of passing showers this afternoon. One of them pretty hard. It just didn't stay around long enough. At 1640 it's mostly cloudy, 83F with 72% humidity. The forecast calls for a high of 85F with 60% chance of rain today, and a low of 70F tonight.
Only saw 3 or 4 huckleberry bushes that looked like this when I was out gardening this morning. I guess the late frost got them.
Only saw 3 or 4 huckleberry bushes that looked like this when I was out gardening this morning. I guess the late frost got them.
sandhill larry
Well-Known Member
I'm afraid you are right. Ocean temp is the driver for the big storms.
Another thing that could be a problem is the salt content of the oceans going down due to ice melt. Cold dense salt water sinking is a major part of the Gulf Stream. The Gulf Stream keeps Europe warmer than it has a right to be.
The seed companies are having to change their "plant by" maps to reflect the new temp zones. Everything is moving north. The scary part of this is bug and bird timing. Forever when bugs hatched off in the Spring, birds would be coming along to eat them. Now in some cases the bugs are hatching out two to three weeks before the birds get there. Enough time to do lots of damage. I'm sure the birds will catch up, but not sure how long it will take.
ttystikk
Well-Known Member
Since I posted that, I heard a story on NPR about how parts of the Gulf and South Atlantic off the Eastern seaboard have been measured as much 9 degrees warmer than usual! That's just frightening in terms of ocean ecosystems, weather, sea level rise and the implications of ice melting in Greenland. One presumes that if the North is warming like this, so goes the southern ocean around Antarctica. Coupled with the knowledge that huge ice shelves hold back immense glaciers there, it seems like a big change in sea level is coming sooner rather than later.
ttystikk
Well-Known Member
Atlantic hurricane forecast calls for more storms than average;
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSKBN18L27S
And wouldn't you know it, one factor cited is warmer sea surface temperatures.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSKBN18L27S
And wouldn't you know it, one factor cited is warmer sea surface temperatures.
sandhill larry
Well-Known Member
I heard that on NPR this week. It made me think of our conversation here.
sandhill larry
Well-Known Member
It was very cool here this morning. 55F at 0600. It did warm up though. At 1730 it's 85F with 49% humidity. Forecast high of 88F with 10% chance of rain today, and a low of 60F tonight.
We got about an inch of rain over 2-3 days. Not enough to do much.
We got about an inch of rain over 2-3 days. Not enough to do much.
sandhill larry
Well-Known Member
Not sure what question you are answering. Or what you are asking me about.
ttystikk
Well-Known Member
An inch is great, actually! An inch makes the prairie bloom around here lol
ttystikk
Well-Known Member
I was responding to someone else and they deleted their post.