NPR interviewed four residents of Wuhan who contracted the virus, recovered — but then had a retest that turned positive. What does that mean for China's recovery from COVID-19?
www.npr.org
What that report said: "
the nucleic acid tests used in China were accurate at identifying positive cases of the coronavirus only 30%-50% of the time."
Now, "new" cases of apparent re-infection in China. What can we believe about test result data from China? For myself, I have no idea whether or not to put credence into their testing. What I'll do is note this but not react to any of it because I don't know if it's true or not.
Listed for reference,
Test results matrix: Four possible outcomes:
True Positive: Person is infected with the virus and test says they have it
False positive: Person is not infected with the virus and test says they have it
True Negative: Person is not infected with the virus and test says the do not have it
False Negative: Person is infected with the virus and test says they do not have it
When a new test is under development, the prospective test must meet their own test requirements for accuracy. China's early testing (and maybe still) gave 30-50% false results. Basically, it fails to meet expectations for accuracy. So, we can't really put much weight on test results coming from China right now. Does not mean we can dismiss those results. Just, don't put a lot of weight on them when making decisions and look to other ways if one must make a decision now.
What I don't understand is why we aren't getting much insight or feedback from South Korea's experiences? They kicked ass and are going to come out stronger because of it. Hopefully, more information from Korea will become available soon. China's proclivity for controlling information and possibly releasing false information as red herrings (who is to say?) is troubling.
Whether or not a country observes good scientific protocols is important. Italy, US and China have all botched testing in one way or another. More people are going to die because of this. If you don't like to pay for education and good science, then get ready for the higher costs of ignorance.