Budley Doright
Well-Known Member
Not in the house
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Lockdowns work.
- Thread starter rkymtnman
- Start date
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Dr.Amber Trichome
Well-Known Member
I bet it’s nice!Not in the house
Budley Doright
Well-Known Member
Use to be, now that it’s legal and I’m old. I am all outdoors now and just a tad over the limit
. I may plug the lab in again someday, great hobby!
Dr.Amber Trichome
Well-Known Member
What’s the lab? I bet it’s incredible!Use to be, now that it’s legal and I’m old. I am all outdoors now and just a tad over the limit
Budley Doright
Well-Known Member
LOL hydroponic with chilled water. My hobby is control process.......I like controls
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DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Growing 4 in the backyard this summer Dudley, gonna use 10 gallon fabric bags, I got 4 X GG#xWW clones rooted and growing out now. I plan on inducing flowering around the middle of july with a tarp over the greenhouse frame, 7 PM to 7 AM for a month should do the trick. Gonna drop a bag off to the young fellow at the local RONA and get some black and white they use to cover lumber bundle shipments, they toss it all the time.Use to be, now that it’s legal and I’m old. I am all outdoors now and just a tad over the limit
Budley Doright
Well-Known Member
Good plan.
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
Speaking of good plans:
Lockdowns are not good plans.
These curves have exactly the same trajectory.
Lockdowns are not good plans.
These curves have exactly the same trajectory.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Except Italy and Spain have cases in the 100 thousands range per day and Sweden has cases in the 10 thousand range. Population density and a high rate of infection are big factors in flattening the curve, also Sweden has social distancing rules, they are de facto social isolating, just with less restrictive measures and a lot of voluntary action. A much better comparison for someone seeking the truth of the matter would be with similar nordic nations like Norway, Denmark and Finland and compare deaths, since Sweden has the worst testing program of them all.
Sweden 150 deaths/ 1m
Norway 30 death/ 1m
Denmark 60 deaths/ 1m (highest pop density)
Finland 17 death /1m*
* There is some evidence that Sauna bathing might be a contributing factor here, pop 5 mil/2 mil saunas.
Looks like its throw grandma under the bus, I doubt the chef epidemiologist will have a career there soon. He's gonna look like shit at the inquest, experimenting on a nation like this is not just unethical, its a crime against humanity. I wouldn't point to Sweden as an example of success, but of one of looming disaster.
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Anger in Sweden as elderly pay price for coronavirus strategy
Staff with no masks or sanitiser fear for residents as hundreds die in care homes
www.theguardian.com
Anger in Sweden as elderly pay price for coronavirus strategy
Staff with no masks or sanitiser fear for residents as hundreds die in care homes
It was just a few days after the ban on visits to his mother’s nursing home in the Swedish city of Uppsala, on 3 April, that Magnus Bondesson started to get worried.
“They [the home] opened up for Skype calls and that’s when I saw two employees. I didn’t see any masks and they didn’t have gloves on,” says Bondesson, a start-up founder and app developer.
“When I called again a few days later I questioned the person helping out, asking why they didn’t use face masks, and he said they were just following the guidelines.”
That same week there were numerous reports in Sweden’s national news media about just how badly the country’s nursing homes were starting to be hit by the coronavirus, with hundreds of cases confirmed at homes in Stockholm, the worst affected region, and infections in homes across the country.
Since then pressure has mounted on the government to explain how, despite a stated aim of protecting the elderly from the risks of Covid-19, a third of fatalities have been people living in care homes.
Last week, as figures released by the Public Health Agency of Sweden indicated that 1,333 people had now died of coronavirus, the country’s normally unflappable state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell admitted that the situation in care homes was worrying.
“This is our big problem area,” said Tegnell, the brains behind the government’s relatively light-touch strategy, which has seen it ask, rather than order, people to avoid non-essential travel, work from home and stay indoors if they are over 70 or are feeling ill.
The same day prime minister Stefan Löfven said that the country faced a “serious situation” in its old people’s homes, announced efforts to step up protections, and ordered the country’s health inspectorate to investigate.
Lena Einhorn, a virologist who has been one of the leading domestic critics of Sweden’s coronavirus policy, told the Observer that the government and the health agency were still resisting the most obvious explanations.
“They have to admit that it’s a huge failure, since they have said the whole time that their main aim has been to protect the elderly,” she said. “But what is really strange is that they still do not acknowledge the likely route. They say it’s very unfortunate, that they are investigating, and that it’s a matter of the training personnel, but they will not acknowledge that presymptomatic or asymptomatic spread is a factor.”
more...
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
Italy and Spain have lockdowns too. Lockdowns don't work.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Compare apples with apples and oranges with oranges, when you do, Sweden does not look too good. I posted the news, because it was so relevant to the conversation on NPI's. Desperation by the population in the USA are forcing the NPIs to end or go Swedish, the republicans want it that way, a $1200 one time payment won't cut it.
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
Your premise is completely flawed, actually supports my argument. Sweden flattened its curve with a tiny fraction of the number of cases. Even accounting for it's population density and total population, it's still way lower per capita and most of Sweden's citizens live in the cities. Spain has been under lockdown since March 14.
You cited some bullshit news article that doesn't change that at all. That's the whole reason they use logarithmic graphs and "flatten the curve" rhetoric. It is supposed to flatten off just due to the fact the vertical rise on the graph means less at higher numbers. You suck at this.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Not really, other nordic countries are the way to compare responses, Sweden has a low testing rate, so comparing cases creates a false narrative with flawed statistical data. Also Sweden is doing a lot of voluntary social distancing, but there numbers are still growing rapidly nonetheless. Comparing per capita mortality rates is the best measure, because of the asymptomatic nature of the contagion in many, it multiplies the RO=3.
BTW Your theoretical model involves the deaths of millions, there's more to this than plots on a logarithmic scale, as the elderly in Sweden are finding out.
I'm patient, the data will become much better in the next few weeks, at the expense of many tens of thousands, as the American infection rate and death toll skyrocket to exponential levels. Cherry pick New York if you want, but the policy saved their asses, for now.
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
Then their death rate is a vast overestimate.
weed-whacker
Well-Known Member
Oh man U so dumb
First paragraph corect, I'm aware of how it spreads that's why we need to stay the fuck home aka lock down til we get a vaccine
And yeah lockdown doesn't stop a virus spreading, it doesn't stop the ppl who were already infected infected Thier household
It slows the spread
And it works and it's not even a debate mate
Are U a flat earther by any chance?
Actually don't even respond I'm getting dumber just talking to U
Putting U on my ignore list now
Budley Doright
Well-Known Member
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
Then it should be easy to find proof.
I posted four examples to counter the notion that lockdowns flatten logarithmic curves. The doubling time in the US is currently 6 days, which is faster than the WHO estimate of the R0 suggests it would be without a lockdown. At the current rate, the entire United States will be infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus in less than two months and that's assuming that the confirmed cases are the total number. A recent study suggest the actual number of cases to be 50-85 times that number. So less than two months until the whole country is infected at this rate. Two months of lockdowns will cause a global famine in addition to the pandemic.
Nobody is saying that you have to go outside. Governments around the world, including European governments are opening back up, despite rising numbers of new cases per day. Not because they support Donald Fucking Gump. They're opening their economies back up because there is no other option. The lockdown strategy failed. You are still welcome to stay home.
Budley Doright
Well-Known Member
Has anyone called the Netherlands and let them know they are a nordic country? 
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Death rates are the most reliable statistic, when the medical system is not overwhelmed and where people care for and check in on the sick. In Italy, New York and Spain the healthcare system and even social support networks were overwhelmed. Bodies smell real bad though and are often accounted for after a week because the neighbors complain.
I keep saying a one size fits all solution does not work, social isolation does to the extent you can pull it off. There is little point in many poor countries doing lockdowns. There was very little margin for error in response to this pandemic and the US and UK fucked up bigly on that response, they might not be able to fight their way back to a reasonable starting place, they might have already reached a tipping point. Not so in my country, we don't have to throw moma under the bus yet.
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
No they're a terrible stat for several reasons.
First off, they're the goal, not the guage. The whole point of the "flatten the curve" strategy was to reduce the death rate by keeping the curve below the apex. That means number of NEW CASES PER DAY has to be below the threashold of what a healthcare system can handle. That threshhold can be augmented by increasing healthcare capacity. The apex going above the threshhold means a higher death rate.
Secondly, People are dropping like flies and they're being labeled probable covid cases. Literally no respectable scientist is measuring the curve based on death rates and saying that's the standard. Almost every country has had to go back and revise the number of dead.
Thirdly, it's wild on a graph. You might be able to go with deaths per week and see an intelligible trend, but not per day. It's up and down.
The most reliable stat is and always has been cases per day and that's why testing is essential.