Lockdowns work.

[abandonconflict]

theres a huge problem with the test they're using

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) - Rapid test

Coronaviruses are enveloped, single-strand RNA viruses known to cause respiratory illness in humans.

www.oxfordbiosystems.com

out of the 128 known negative samples they had 12 false positives

sampling 200 residents you would to expect 20 false positives from that test....

and the range of false postives could easily be a bit high



i dont see your point...

Not my point, it's an excerpt from the article.

Also, the Chelsea 200 test had a couple things going for it that made it a better sample than the Stanford test, but I agree it's far from Ironclad. Doesn't make it useless.

 

[hanimmal]

When you ask if lockdowns "work," does that mean that they defeat the virus? No, they just delay transmission. Eventually, everyone gets the virus. Some may experience it as mild, some may die. The lockdown advantage is that the healthcare system is not swamped, and we buy some time to work on effective treatments. However, if the lockdown begins to destroy the economy, another set of costs increase. Economic hardship can destroy people as well as disease. Just look at Appalachia, the Rust Belt, and the opioid crisis. If the lockdown creates another Great Depression, is the cure worse than the disease? Everything has its cost, and you're damned if you do, and damned if you don't.

Yeah and by having everyone go back to work and start passing this virus around the workplace hammering people, that is also not good for the economy.

Unfortunately we don't have enough information yet to know if it is safe thanks to Dear Leader not wanting any verifiably accurate science being discussed in his (mostly) one man vaudeville routine he uses to stir up hate and fear in his cult.

Not my point, it's an excerpt from the article.

Also, the Chelsea 200 test had a couple things going for it that made it a better sample than the Stanford test, but I agree it's far from Ironclad. Doesn't make it useless.

True it could be used by that manufacturer to test that their next batch of test kits are functioning better.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

theres a huge problem with the test they're using

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) - Rapid test

Coronaviruses are enveloped, single-strand RNA viruses known to cause respiratory illness in humans.

www.oxfordbiosystems.com

out of the 128 known negative samples they had 12 false positives

sampling 200 residents you would to expect 20 false positives from that test....

and the range of false postives could easily be a bit high



i dont see your point...

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

U.S. Confronts New Testing Dilemma: How to Figure Out Who Already Had Covid-19
Studies show widely varying reads on how many people have been infected
By
Kristen V Brown
April 20, 2020, 3:38 PM ADT Updated on April 20, 2020, 6:14 PM ADT

 

[abandonconflict]

True it could be used by that manufacturer to test that their next batch of test kits are functioning better.

The FDA approved it for use in research. The doctors were very likely acutely aware of the accuracy rating of the test kits. Even if they didn't account for the margin of error, which I doubt an MD would ever do that, but even if they did, it's still a random group of anonymous people and a high percentage with antibodies.

As more and more of these types of findings come in, off hand rejection will be less and less a viable argument.

 

[hanimmal]

The FDA approved it for use in research. The doctors were very likely acutely aware of the accuracy rating of the test kits. Even if they didn't account for the margin of error, which I doubt an MD would ever do that, but even if they did, it's still a random group of anonymous people and a high percentage with antibodies.

As more and more of these types of findings come in, off hand rejection will be less and less a viable argument.

Everything is a cluster fuck with testing right now, I am not sure why you are defending it so much.

You can't have a meaningful margin of error if your shit is all messed up and you were inputting incorrect data.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

theres a huge problem with the test they're using

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) - Rapid test

Coronaviruses are enveloped, single-strand RNA viruses known to cause respiratory illness in humans.

www.oxfordbiosystems.com

out of the 128 known negative samples they had 12 false positives

sampling 200 residents you would to expect 20 false positives from that test....

and the range of false postives could easily be a bit high



i dont see your point...

There are also issues with testing in a known hotspot and selection bias with the participants, all these factor are cause for concern, I haven't seen this work published anywhere, even on a preprint server, just in the news

 

[abandonconflict]

Everything is a cluster fuck with testing right now

This was a very random group of anonymous people. It has some value. It's also consistent with other studies, one of which is an in depth epidemiological study out of Germany that was peer-reviewed. I get that you are highly aware of which threads you want to bump and when and that it's more important than the content of your comment, but it's just bad optics when you use this tactic while also dismissing research out of hand.

It wasn't at all a clusterfuck. Nor was the Stanford study for that matter, though neither were peer-reviewed. They're consistent with a lot of research that is coming out that is conducted by relevant experts. You either get your info from them or you don't.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

The FDA approved it for use in research. The doctors were very likely acutely aware of the accuracy rating of the test kits. Even if they didn't account for the margin of error, which I doubt an MD would ever do that, but even if they did, it's still a random group of anonymous people and a high percentage with antibodies.

As more and more of these types of findings come in, off hand rejection will be less and less a viable argument.

With the political pressure being put on the FDA and CDC by Trump and both agencies run by his appointees, the information quality, test and drug approvals are suspect, they might be about as good as China's was, the government response is worse and the American government is lying far more than China ever did, Trump is the American government BTW, he runs the administration and the checks and balances have been broken. They are under pressure to rapidly approve serological tests that other western countries won't.

 

[abandonconflict]

With the political pressure being put on the FDA and CDC by Trump and both agencies run by his appointees, the information quality, test and drug approvals are suspect, they might be about as good as China's was, the government response is worse and the American government is lying far more than China ever did, Trump is the American government BTW, he runs the administration and the checks and balances have been broken. They are under pressure to rapidly approve serological tests that other western countries won't.

Kind of a sloppy circle of disqualification you have there...

Impugned study by doctors in Chelsea contradicts bad findings by the CDC...

 

[hanimmal]

This was a very random group of anonymous people. It has some value. It's also consistent with other studies, one of which is an in depth epidemiological study out of Germany that was peer-reviewed. I get that you are highly aware of which threads you want to bump and when and that it's more important than the content of your comment, but it's just bad optics when you use this tactic while also dismissing research out of hand.

It wasn't at all a clusterfuck. Nor was the Stanford study for that matter, though neither were peer-reviewed. They're consistent with a lot of research that is coming out that is conducted by relevant experts. You either get your info from them or you don't.

Have they gotten repeatable results yet?

I dont, I get my information on this from my wife thankfully. Unfortunately we still are flying blind with (is it still?) less than 1% of the population tested.

Edits: I could just post these next time? I do try to stay hyperaware of what thread I am posting in and why.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

This was a very random group of anonymous people. It has some value. It's also consistent with other studies, one of which is an in depth epidemiological study out of Germany that was peer-reviewed. I get that you are highly aware of which threads you want to bump and when and that it's more important than the content of your comment, but it's just bad optics when you use this tactic while also dismissing research out of hand.

It wasn't at all a clusterfuck. Nor was the Stanford study for that matter, though neither were peer-reviewed. They're consistent with a lot of research that is coming out that is conducted by relevant experts. You either get your info from them or you don't.

Based on a newspaper article, we know nothing about the selection process, I heard they advertised for volunteers, the work hasn't even showed up on a preprint server. There is limited knowledge of the study's testing quality and potential biais.

 

[Budley Doright]

Sympathy like for that guy who really needs attention and wants the troll thread to stay high on the list.

Thank you. Speaking of seeking attention, why so many threads? I’m glad to see you are making an effort to be amicable though lol.

 

[abandonconflict]

Based on a newspaper article, we know nothing about the selection process, I heard they advertised for volunteers, the work hasn't even showed up on a preprint server. There is limited knowledge of the study's testing quality and potential biais.

So you didn't read it...

I even included an excerpt and the other guy thought it was my point and then I told him it was an excerpt.

 

[abandonconflict]

Thank you. Speaking of seeking attention, why so many threads? I’m glad to see you are making an effort to be amicable though lol.

I am?

 

[abandonconflict]

Unfortunately we still are flying blind with (is it still?) less than 1% of the population tested.

So you demand nothing less than lab generated test results in order to make a conclusion regarding infection rates, but you'll except a lockdown that is causing food shortages because a politician said so?

PS:

The German study is peer reviewed.

Information for the Media - Georg-August-Universität Göttingen

Website of the Georg-August-University Göttingen

www.uni-goettingen.de

Insufficient and delayed testing may explain why some European countries, such as Italy and Spain, are experiencing much higher casualty numbers (relative to reported confirmed cases) than Germany, which has detected an estimated 15.6% of infections compared to only 3.5% in Italy or 1.7% in Spain. Detection rates are even lower in the United States (1.6%) and the United Kingdom (1.2%) – two countries that have received widespread criticism from public health experts for their delayed response to the pandemic.
In sharp contrast to this, South Korea appears to have discovered almost half of all its SARS-CoV-2 infections. The authors estimate that on 31 March 2020, Germany had 460,000 infections. Based on the same method, they calculate that the United States had more than ten million, Spain more than five million, Italy around three million and the United Kingdom around two million infections. On the same day the Johns Hopkins University reported that globally there were less than 900,000 confirmed cases, meaning that the vast majority of infections were undetected.

 

[hanimmal]

So you demand nothing less than lab generated test results in order to make a conclusion regarding infection rates, but you'll except a lockdown that is causing food shortages because a politician said so?

PS:

The German study is peer reviewed.

Information for the Media - Georg-August-Universität Göttingen

Website of the Georg-August-University Göttingen

www.uni-goettingen.de

I don't demand anything. I am just trying to not be stupid and get my wife sick because I got cabin fever and ran out of lighters.

I will be something by voting for an administration that will let their scientists lead and have the capability of feeding the people trying to fix the disaster instead of using it as a re-election campaign.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Kind of a sloppy circle of disqualification you have there...

Impugned study by doctors in Chelsea contradicts bad findings by the CDC...

The fact that the FDA recently approved a Canadian serological test that Health Canada would not say as a lot. Trump is the head of the administration and he has corrupted everything and almost everybody he has come into contact with. I was referring to the FDA approved tests part, it means little these days. The research shows selection bias too, but since it is only a news story at this point, we can't have a real good critical look at it, the researchers are fine, the study, perhaps not so much. One thing is for sure though, we can't use it to generalise, it was done in a hot spot and the selection was biased.

Compared the American response, China looks pretty good, Trump does all the lying, but he is the head of the government, so the government lies, to the world and its own citizens. The American response has been a tragicomedy of malicious dereliction of duty and gross incompetence MAGA.

I hate it like fucking sin too, I'm a friend and ally of America and understand the situation, my heart breaks as I watch the disaster unfold. Trump is a shame that every American will carry, not just the idiots who support him, it's just the way these things work.

 

[abandonconflict]

The fact that the FDA recently approved a Canadian serological test that Health Canada would not say as a lot. Trump is the head of the administration and he has corrupted everything and almost everybody he has come into contact with. I was referring to the FDA approved tests part, it means little these days. The research shows selection bias too, but since it is only a news story at this point, we can't have a real good critical look at it, the researchers are fine, the study, perhaps not so much. One thing is for sure though, we can't use it to generalise, it was done in a hot spot and the selection was biased.

Compared the American response, China looks pretty good, Trump does all the lying, but he is the head of the government, so the government lies, to the world and its own citizens. The American response has been a tragicomedy of malicious dereliction of duty and gross incompetence MAGA.

I hate it like fucking sin too, I'm a friend and ally of America and understand the situation, my heart breaks as I watch the disaster unfold. Trump is a shame that every American will carry, not just the idiots who support him, it's just the way these things work.

So you're saying that the lockdowns aren't working?

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

So you didn't read it...

I even included an excerpt and the other guy thought it was my point and then I told him it was an excerpt.

It's a newspaper article, and the information presented was incomplete, it cannot be used to bolister an argument until we see at least the preprint. You want to hold the discussion to reasonable standards of evidence, or so I thought.

 

[Budley Doright]

A new scientific report stresses: Only the most severe distancing measures can prevent hundreds of thousands of deaths
A sobering new report from the COVID-19 Response Team at the Imperial College of London underscores the need to keep social distancing measures in place for a long period.

It outlines two scenarios for combating the spread of the outbreak. One is mitigation, which focuses on “slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread.” Another is suppression, “which aims to reverse epidemic growth.”


In their analysis, isolation of confirmed cases and quarantine of older adults without social distancing would still result in hundreds of thousands of deaths, and an “eight-fold higher peak demand on critical care beds over and above the available surge capacity in both [Great Britain] and the US.”

Fucking politicians ..... think they know everything.