Trump is going to lose in November
- Thread starter Fogdog
- Start date
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
That will be repealed after Joe interns all the Trumpers and morons who refuse to wear masks. Legislation will make people liable for knowingly infecting another or causing their death, individual responsibility stuff and authoritarianism, the Trumpers should love it, just what they want, a strong leader. Regular Americans just want the nightmare to end and will support responsible public health measures to do so. Many Americans are gonna be surprised at what their federal government can and will do to solve this crises when competently led by someone who cares. I figure Joe will wrestle covid to the ground in under 90 days and rates will be low enough to resume many normal activities. With Donald it's herd immunity with 3 million dead, 3 times as many maimed and an economic collapse, your bank card won't work then, nobody's will.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Repeatedly voting under different names, when he's not a general in ANTIFA! Probably out rioting in one of those anarchy cities.
he's been gone awhile.Repeatedly voting under different names, when he's not a general in ANTIFA! Probably out rioting in one of those anarchy cities.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
I believe he already had covid and if he has the same disposition at home as he does here, I would suspect he's out hunting MAGA hats with a baseball bat, something I would consider if I were an American!
hanimmal
Well-Known Member
https://apnews.com/0e357bf53492c4e54c26e7af5d47ef35
HELENA, Mont. (AP) — The Montana Supreme Court said in an opinion released Wednesday that it rejected a Republican-backed bid to get Montana Green Party candidates on the November ballot because a petition to qualify them was not supported by the Green Party itself.
The high court upheld District Judge James Reynolds’ Aug. 7 ruling that granted the requests of more than 560 people to remove their names from the petition after they learned the Montana Green Party did not support the effort.
The Supreme Court issued an expedited 5-2 ruling on Aug. 19 ahead of Montana’s general election ballot certification, and promised to released a full opinion and analysis at a later date.
The justices in the majority stated that the party seeking to qualify for the ballot must present the petition. Since the petition was neither presented nor supported by the Montana Green Party, the secretary of state should not have accepted it, according to the justices.
“Quite simply an unauthorized political party or entity cannot present a petition to require a different political party to put the different political party’s candidates on the ballot,” Justice Ingrid Gustafson wrote in the court’s majority opinion.
Signature gathering for the petition began early this year. It was later revealed that the Montana Republican Party had bankrolled the $100,000 signature-gathering effort and violated campaign finance laws by not properly reporting the expenditure.
Green Party candidates are believed to draw votes away from Democratic candidates. Montana has tight races for both a U.S. Senate and U.S. House seat.
Reynolds’ ruling left the Green Party without enough signatures to qualify for the ballot. The secretary of state’s office appealed Reynolds’ ruling.
Last month, the U.S. Supreme Court denied a motion filed by Montana Republican Secretary of State Corey Stapleton to halt the order by the state high court.
HELENA, Mont. (AP) — The Montana Supreme Court said in an opinion released Wednesday that it rejected a Republican-backed bid to get Montana Green Party candidates on the November ballot because a petition to qualify them was not supported by the Green Party itself.
The high court upheld District Judge James Reynolds’ Aug. 7 ruling that granted the requests of more than 560 people to remove their names from the petition after they learned the Montana Green Party did not support the effort.
The Supreme Court issued an expedited 5-2 ruling on Aug. 19 ahead of Montana’s general election ballot certification, and promised to released a full opinion and analysis at a later date.
The justices in the majority stated that the party seeking to qualify for the ballot must present the petition. Since the petition was neither presented nor supported by the Montana Green Party, the secretary of state should not have accepted it, according to the justices.
“Quite simply an unauthorized political party or entity cannot present a petition to require a different political party to put the different political party’s candidates on the ballot,” Justice Ingrid Gustafson wrote in the court’s majority opinion.
Signature gathering for the petition began early this year. It was later revealed that the Montana Republican Party had bankrolled the $100,000 signature-gathering effort and violated campaign finance laws by not properly reporting the expenditure.
Green Party candidates are believed to draw votes away from Democratic candidates. Montana has tight races for both a U.S. Senate and U.S. House seat.
Reynolds’ ruling left the Green Party without enough signatures to qualify for the ballot. The secretary of state’s office appealed Reynolds’ ruling.
Last month, the U.S. Supreme Court denied a motion filed by Montana Republican Secretary of State Corey Stapleton to halt the order by the state high court.
SFnone
Well-Known Member
people need to get ready for a fight, sounds like trump has basically admitted he is going to rely on the supreme court to say the election was rigged if he loses, allowing him to stay in indefinitely... probably will apply to the republican senators and possibly the house members too. he's trying his best to make it a dictatorship, and there are far too many who are willing to help him do it. even the voters who think they like him should be very afraid of this.
Fogdog
Well-Known Member
Debate day. First debate. A lot of people actually believe that Biden is going to blow it. Also, no fact checking during the debate so Trump will lie nonstop.
Just posting this as a benchmark for comparison a week from now to see if the debate had any effect whatsoever:
The chart, from 538, above shows how states are currently leaning, blue is for Biden, red is for Trump. Last week, Biden picked up Ohio in the blue column, making Trump's electoral college count even worse.
The polls have been nothing but bad news for Trump and the trend is against him going into the debate.
So, here it is, Trump has to move the needle with some sort of coherent point. Or Biden has to completely shit on himself. We'll see what happens tonight and if it has any affect on public opinion. Not much more than a month to go.
This election cycle is nothing like the last one. But I do invite Trump's supporters to post something about how polls were wrong in 2016, so they are wrong now. Such clear and flawless logic should be preserved for posterity. lulz
Just posting this as a benchmark for comparison a week from now to see if the debate had any effect whatsoever:
The chart, from 538, above shows how states are currently leaning, blue is for Biden, red is for Trump. Last week, Biden picked up Ohio in the blue column, making Trump's electoral college count even worse.
The polls have been nothing but bad news for Trump and the trend is against him going into the debate.
So, here it is, Trump has to move the needle with some sort of coherent point. Or Biden has to completely shit on himself. We'll see what happens tonight and if it has any affect on public opinion. Not much more than a month to go.
This election cycle is nothing like the last one. But I do invite Trump's supporters to post something about how polls were wrong in 2016, so they are wrong now. Such clear and flawless logic should be preserved for posterity. lulz
hanimmal
Well-Known Member
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/01/heres-difference-between-democratic-squeaker-blowout/
President Trump has some chance of winning, and Republicans have some chance of holding on to the Senate. The far more realistic outcome, however, is that Democrats cruise to victory in November. The only question is how big a win they should expect. There are roughly three scenarios.
The first is that “only” Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) and Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) lose their seats. Assuming Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.) loses, that gives Democrats a net pick-up of three seats, creating a 50-50 split in the Senate with the tie-breaking vote going to the vice president. In this scenario — given that the Senate and presidential races will likely be closely linked (both because Republicans have tied themselves so tightly to Trump, and because voters wanting change understand that the Senate must flip) — former vice president Joe Biden would win states where he is eight to 10 points ahead (Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) while the rest of the map remains as it was in 2016. That would give Biden an electoral college victory of 278 votes.
Alternatively, Democratic Senate challengers, in keeping with current polls that show Democrats tied or slightly ahead, are able to extend their wins to another tier of states. In this case, Republican Sens. Steve Daines (Mont.), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Lindsey O. Graham (S.C.) and Dan Sullivan (Alaska) could lose their races. That is a potential net pickup of seven seats (54-46 in Democrats’ favor). Likewise, Biden could pick up wins in North Carolina, Arizona, Florida and one delegate each in Maine and Nebraska. That would bring Biden up to 335 electoral votes.
Then there is the blowout scenario. In addition to all the Republican losses above, a blowout would sweep out a Georgia Senate seat (or two), as well as seats in Texas and Kansas, giving Democrats at least a 57-43 advantage. Biden, meanwhile, picks up states such as Georgia, Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas (as much as 416 electoral votes).
Sign up for The Odds newsletter for election updates from data columnist David Byler
Obviously, there are slews of variations and gradations, but that is essentially the lay of the land for a close win, a solid win and a blowout. What would make the difference in moving the race from close to solid, or solid to blowout?
Well, Trump’s debate performance for one thing. Whether you look at polls or disastrous focus groups (wherein former Trump voters, especially women, in unison decide they have no more patience for him), he didn’t give anyone not already in his camp reason to vote for him and may have lost ground.
Second, the mind-numbing scheme of dissuading Republicans from voting by mail could backfire. On Election Day, Republicans might see the polls, be convinced Trump is out and not bother getting in long lines.
Another factor could be the Supreme Court fight, but not in the way Republicans imagine. Montana and Alaska tend to be heavily pro-choice states, and virtually every state has a large number of people who gained coverage through the Affordable Care Act or benefit from protections for preexisting conditions. The spectacle of Republicans rushing through a nominee who would likely gut Roe v. Wade and the ACA could be the final straw for some voters, but even more likely the impetus to get young women voters to the polls.
Finally, more galling revelations about Trump’s financial chicanery could depress Republicans, prompting them to at least stay home.
Not in the list of potential factors that could affect the election (either for or against Democrats) are changes in the economy or in the covid-19 pandemic. Those factors, I would suggest, are already baked in. You either think Trump has saved us from calamities, or you can see that he made them far worse. A few percentage points in the unemployment rate or, sadly, more casualties from covid-19 are unlikely to move the needle.
Are there factors that could move the race in Trump’s direction? He is running out of those. The first debate is over, and proved to be a disaster. More and more voters are casting ballots every week, so by the time you get, say to the third debate on Oct. 22, a high percentage of ballots will already be cast. In addition, the supposed “October Surprise” report from U.S. Attorney John Durham looking into the handling of the Russia investigation apparently will not be released before the election. And finally, the Republicans have so lowered the bar for Biden that no mere gaffe or string of gaffes is likely to hurt him.
In sum, we are getting to the point where a “close win” is the floor for Democrats but by no means the ceiling — or even the most likely outcome. With each week that passes without a clap of thunder in Trump’s favor, the odds go up for Democrats to improve their prospects.
President Trump has some chance of winning, and Republicans have some chance of holding on to the Senate. The far more realistic outcome, however, is that Democrats cruise to victory in November. The only question is how big a win they should expect. There are roughly three scenarios.
The first is that “only” Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) and Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) lose their seats. Assuming Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.) loses, that gives Democrats a net pick-up of three seats, creating a 50-50 split in the Senate with the tie-breaking vote going to the vice president. In this scenario — given that the Senate and presidential races will likely be closely linked (both because Republicans have tied themselves so tightly to Trump, and because voters wanting change understand that the Senate must flip) — former vice president Joe Biden would win states where he is eight to 10 points ahead (Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) while the rest of the map remains as it was in 2016. That would give Biden an electoral college victory of 278 votes.
Alternatively, Democratic Senate challengers, in keeping with current polls that show Democrats tied or slightly ahead, are able to extend their wins to another tier of states. In this case, Republican Sens. Steve Daines (Mont.), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Lindsey O. Graham (S.C.) and Dan Sullivan (Alaska) could lose their races. That is a potential net pickup of seven seats (54-46 in Democrats’ favor). Likewise, Biden could pick up wins in North Carolina, Arizona, Florida and one delegate each in Maine and Nebraska. That would bring Biden up to 335 electoral votes.
Then there is the blowout scenario. In addition to all the Republican losses above, a blowout would sweep out a Georgia Senate seat (or two), as well as seats in Texas and Kansas, giving Democrats at least a 57-43 advantage. Biden, meanwhile, picks up states such as Georgia, Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas (as much as 416 electoral votes).
Sign up for The Odds newsletter for election updates from data columnist David Byler
Obviously, there are slews of variations and gradations, but that is essentially the lay of the land for a close win, a solid win and a blowout. What would make the difference in moving the race from close to solid, or solid to blowout?
Well, Trump’s debate performance for one thing. Whether you look at polls or disastrous focus groups (wherein former Trump voters, especially women, in unison decide they have no more patience for him), he didn’t give anyone not already in his camp reason to vote for him and may have lost ground.
Second, the mind-numbing scheme of dissuading Republicans from voting by mail could backfire. On Election Day, Republicans might see the polls, be convinced Trump is out and not bother getting in long lines.
Another factor could be the Supreme Court fight, but not in the way Republicans imagine. Montana and Alaska tend to be heavily pro-choice states, and virtually every state has a large number of people who gained coverage through the Affordable Care Act or benefit from protections for preexisting conditions. The spectacle of Republicans rushing through a nominee who would likely gut Roe v. Wade and the ACA could be the final straw for some voters, but even more likely the impetus to get young women voters to the polls.
Finally, more galling revelations about Trump’s financial chicanery could depress Republicans, prompting them to at least stay home.
Not in the list of potential factors that could affect the election (either for or against Democrats) are changes in the economy or in the covid-19 pandemic. Those factors, I would suggest, are already baked in. You either think Trump has saved us from calamities, or you can see that he made them far worse. A few percentage points in the unemployment rate or, sadly, more casualties from covid-19 are unlikely to move the needle.
Are there factors that could move the race in Trump’s direction? He is running out of those. The first debate is over, and proved to be a disaster. More and more voters are casting ballots every week, so by the time you get, say to the third debate on Oct. 22, a high percentage of ballots will already be cast. In addition, the supposed “October Surprise” report from U.S. Attorney John Durham looking into the handling of the Russia investigation apparently will not be released before the election. And finally, the Republicans have so lowered the bar for Biden that no mere gaffe or string of gaffes is likely to hurt him.
In sum, we are getting to the point where a “close win” is the floor for Democrats but by no means the ceiling — or even the most likely outcome. With each week that passes without a clap of thunder in Trump’s favor, the odds go up for Democrats to improve their prospects.
dakilla187
Well-Known Member
Stoners on Politics!
Lemme smoke this blunt and ill give you an opinion!
Lemme smoke this blunt and ill give you an opinion!
Fogdog
Well-Known Member
dakilla187
Well-Known Member
Im almost finished, wth I get my info from rollitup, im informed dammit
MickFoster
Well-Known Member
I voted last week. 
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Biden leads by 10 points as majority of Americans say Trump could have avoided coronavirus
Democrat Joe Biden opened his widest lead in a month in the U.S. presidential race after President Donald Trump tested positive for the coronavirus, and a majority of Americans think Trump could have avoided infection if he had taken the virus more seriously, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll...
Biden leads by 10 points as majority of Americans say Trump could have avoided coronavirus: Reuters/Ipsos poll
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Democrat Joe Biden opened his widest lead in a month in the U.S. presidential race after President Donald Trump tested positive for the coronavirus, and a majority of Americans think Trump could have avoided infection if he had taken the virus more seriously, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Sunday.
The Oct. 2-3 national opinion poll gave little indication of an outpouring of support for the president beyond Trump’s core group of followers, some of whom have gathered outside Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, where the president has been hospitalized.
Trump has repeatedly dismissed the severity of the pandemic as something that would disappear on its own, chiding Biden as recently as last week for wearing a protective mask, even as the coronavirus infected millions of people and forced businesses and schools to close.
Among those adults who are expected to cast ballots in the Nov. 3 election, the poll found that 51% were backing Biden, while 41% said they were voting for Trump. Another 4% were choosing a third-party candidate and another 4% said they were undecided.
Biden’s 10-point edge over Trump is 1 to 2 points higher than leads Biden posted over the past several weeks, though the increase is still within the poll’s precision limits of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
With about a month to go before the election, Biden has maintained an early advantage in securing the national popular vote. But to win the presidency, a candidate must prevail in enough states to win the Electoral College, and state polls show that Trump is nearly as popular as Biden in battleground states.
Trump, 74, was transferred to Walter Reed on Friday, hours after tweeting that he was diagnosed with COVID-19. The announcement set off a dizzying split-screen experience for many: as media alerts lit up cell phones and television chyrons about Trump feeling feverish and needing oxygen, several other Republican leaders who had been in close proximity with the president announced that they, too, had tested positive.
Most Americans continue to be deeply worried about the virus, and the poll found that 65%, including 9 in 10 registered Democrats and 5 in 10 registered Republicans, agreed that “if President Trump had taken coronavirus more seriously, he probably would not have been infected.”
Only 34% said they thought that Trump has been telling them the truth about the coronavirus, while 55% said that he was not and 11% were unsure.
Of those polled, 57% of Americans said they disapproved of Trump’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic overall, up about 3 points from a poll that ran late last week.
Americans also appear to be largely supportive of curtailing the 2020 presidential race to ensure everyone’s safety.
Sixty-seven percent of Americans want to stop in-person campaign rallies and 59% think the presidential debates should be postponed until Trump recovers from the coronavirus.
It is unclear at this point how Trump’s diagnosis will impact the next presidential debate, which is scheduled for Oct. 15. The first vice presidential debate between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Mike Pence is scheduled for Thursday.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online, in English, throughout the United States. It gathered responses from 1,005 U.S. adults, including 596 likely voters.
Only about 61% of voting-age Americans actually voted in the 2016 election.
Fogdog
Well-Known Member
If Trump thought he'd get a mercy fuck from voters because he got sick from Trump virus, he should think again.Biden leads by 10 points as majority of Americans say Trump could have avoided coronavirus
Democrat Joe Biden opened his widest lead in a month in the U.S. presidential race after President Donald Trump tested positive for the coronavirus, and a majority of Americans think Trump could have avoided infection if he had taken the virus more seriously, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll...www.reuters.com
Biden leads by 10 points as majority of Americans say Trump could have avoided coronavirus: Reuters/Ipsos poll
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Democrat Joe Biden opened his widest lead in a month in the U.S. presidential race after President Donald Trump tested positive for the coronavirus, and a majority of Americans think Trump could have avoided infection if he had taken the virus more seriously, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Sunday.
The Oct. 2-3 national opinion poll gave little indication of an outpouring of support for the president beyond Trump’s core group of followers, some of whom have gathered outside Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, where the president has been hospitalized.
Trump has repeatedly dismissed the severity of the pandemic as something that would disappear on its own, chiding Biden as recently as last week for wearing a protective mask, even as the coronavirus infected millions of people and forced businesses and schools to close.
Among those adults who are expected to cast ballots in the Nov. 3 election, the poll found that 51% were backing Biden, while 41% said they were voting for Trump. Another 4% were choosing a third-party candidate and another 4% said they were undecided.
Biden’s 10-point edge over Trump is 1 to 2 points higher than leads Biden posted over the past several weeks, though the increase is still within the poll’s precision limits of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
With about a month to go before the election, Biden has maintained an early advantage in securing the national popular vote. But to win the presidency, a candidate must prevail in enough states to win the Electoral College, and state polls show that Trump is nearly as popular as Biden in battleground states.
Trump, 74, was transferred to Walter Reed on Friday, hours after tweeting that he was diagnosed with COVID-19. The announcement set off a dizzying split-screen experience for many: as media alerts lit up cell phones and television chyrons about Trump feeling feverish and needing oxygen, several other Republican leaders who had been in close proximity with the president announced that they, too, had tested positive.
Most Americans continue to be deeply worried about the virus, and the poll found that 65%, including 9 in 10 registered Democrats and 5 in 10 registered Republicans, agreed that “if President Trump had taken coronavirus more seriously, he probably would not have been infected.”
Only 34% said they thought that Trump has been telling them the truth about the coronavirus, while 55% said that he was not and 11% were unsure.
Of those polled, 57% of Americans said they disapproved of Trump’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic overall, up about 3 points from a poll that ran late last week.
Americans also appear to be largely supportive of curtailing the 2020 presidential race to ensure everyone’s safety.
Sixty-seven percent of Americans want to stop in-person campaign rallies and 59% think the presidential debates should be postponed until Trump recovers from the coronavirus.
It is unclear at this point how Trump’s diagnosis will impact the next presidential debate, which is scheduled for Oct. 15. The first vice presidential debate between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Mike Pence is scheduled for Thursday.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online, in English, throughout the United States. It gathered responses from 1,005 U.S. adults, including 596 likely voters.
Only about 61% of voting-age Americans actually voted in the 2016 election.
MickFoster
Well-Known Member
I'm so fucking exhausted........I can't wait until this shit is over and I don't ever have to hear or see or talk about the piece of shit again.