War

[DIY-HP-LED]

no he won't...the fucks that came to the capitol took weeks to organize anything, with the help of many republican politicians.
and most of them are in jail, or waiting to go.
the national guard was deliberately held back.
what are they gonna do when none of that is true?
anyone who shows up to protest will do so in the face of armed, organized national guardsmen and capitol police, who are ready for their shit this time.
let em come, take as much video and as many pictures of them as you can while they're there, and put them on a list for the FBI to keep an eye on.
there may be some small riots...but most of his supporters are old, and/or live rurally. they'll have to commute to riots, if they can manage to make it at all. they'll be put down the same day they start shit, tried, convicted, and get to join their leader in prison.

Donald is desperate and stupid, he will try, but won't have any luck and if he did, the DC police won't allow a repeat of J6 and won't fuck with them at all in hand to hand combat but will shoot the fuckers! Donald will go down bitching and screaming and will put his Trumper republicans in congress in as tight a jam with the base as he can manage. If he can, he will burn the GOP to the ground on the way down, he missed his chance with America. He will turn on everybody in the end and blame them all, or try to.

 

[CCGNZ]

As Adm. Yamamoto looked out at the vast Pacific from his flagship of the carrier task force that just struck Pearl Harbor he was sullen and not celebratory as were the other Japanese officers,he remarked that "America's industrial might is awesome". As I sit here today as an American,who is witnessing war clouds gather in the Pacific once again I feel the roles are reversed. Our de-facto opponent (China) are the ones whose industrial might is awesome. Their navy is comprised of all new or almost new surface combatants,they have 6 shipyards(and are building more) of which their largest one outstrips the USA's capacity of all our shipyards combined. Our surface fleet (particularly the Tichonderoga class Aegis cruisers) are long in the tooth,our decision making in procurement(especially in designing LCS boats in place of a actual blue water frigate) has set us back at least a decade.I believe that only the experience of our brave sailors is the only thing stopping Mr. Xi from throwing punches in place of all his flexing. Let's all hope it stays that way because the odds are starting to stack up unfavorably.

 

[CCGNZ]

As Adm. Yamamoto looked out at the vast Pacific from his flagship of the carrier task force that just struck Pearl Harbor he was sullen and not celebratory as were the other Japanese officers,he remarked that "America's industrial might is awesome". As I sit here today as an American,who is witnessing war clouds gather in the Pacific once again I feel the roles are reversed. Our de-facto opponent (China) are the ones whose industrial might is awesome. Their navy is comprised of all new or almost new surface combatants,they have 6 shipyards(and are building more) of which their largest one outstrips the USA's capacity of all our shipyards combined. Our surface fleet (particularly the Tichonderoga class Aegis cruisers) are long in the tooth,our decision making in procurement(especially in designing LCS boats in place of a actual blue water frigate) has set us back at least a decade.I believe that only the experience of our brave sailors is the only thing stopping Mr. Xi from throwing punches in place of all his flexing. Let's all hope it stays that way because the odds are starting to stack up unfavorably.

I neglected to add in the above that EVERY year the Chinese launch the equivalent of the entire French navy in new ships,and France's navy, while not huge,is considered very capable.

 

[injinji]

As Adm. Yamamoto looked out at the vast Pacific from his flagship of the carrier task force that just struck Pearl Harbor he was sullen and not celebratory as were the other Japanese officers,he remarked that "America's industrial might is awesome". As I sit here today as an American,who is witnessing war clouds gather in the Pacific once again I feel the roles are reversed. Our de-facto opponent (China) are the ones whose industrial might is awesome. Their navy is comprised of all new or almost new surface combatants,they have 6 shipyards(and are building more) of which their largest one outstrips the USA's capacity of all our shipyards combined. Our surface fleet (particularly the Tichonderoga class Aegis cruisers) are long in the tooth,our decision making in procurement(especially in designing LCS boats in place of a actual blue water frigate) has set us back at least a decade.I believe that only the experience of our brave sailors is the only thing stopping Mr. Xi from throwing punches in place of all his flexing. Let's all hope it stays that way because the odds are starting to stack up unfavorably.

What scares me more than the numbers is the fact our officers no longer learn how to navigate the old fashioned way. Everyone uses computers now. If the balloon goes up, there is a good chance we take out each others sats.

They also don't spend as long with hands on ship handling. Lots of shipwrecks in the last few years just from over crowded waterways.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

As Adm. Yamamoto looked out at the vast Pacific from his flagship of the carrier task force that just struck Pearl Harbor he was sullen and not celebratory as were the other Japanese officers,he remarked that "America's industrial might is awesome". As I sit here today as an American,who is witnessing war clouds gather in the Pacific once again I feel the roles are reversed. Our de-facto opponent (China) are the ones whose industrial might is awesome. Their navy is comprised of all new or almost new surface combatants,they have 6 shipyards(and are building more) of which their largest one outstrips the USA's capacity of all our shipyards combined. Our surface fleet (particularly the Tichonderoga class Aegis cruisers) are long in the tooth,our decision making in procurement(especially in designing LCS boats in place of a actual blue water frigate) has set us back at least a decade.I believe that only the experience of our brave sailors is the only thing stopping Mr. Xi from throwing punches in place of all his flexing. Let's all hope it stays that way because the odds are starting to stack up unfavorably.

America will not be alone if it confronts China both militarily and most importantly economically and the only way that will happen is if they attack another liberal democracy. Xi won't last forever and they are coming around, but with a bit of "face saving" first, speaking of face, Xi just had his fall off over covid. Then there are China's internal economic problems and recent financial crises. China will turn to the east and central Asia and will be taking advantage of the vacuum there left by the Russians. They have rail lines into there already it has oil, resources and markets with internal lines of communication. There might be a lot going on to the north of them in the coming decade as the Russian empire comes apart and they will want to take advantage of that too.

Almost all their markets are in the west among allied or friendly countries, because it would not jut be Uncle Sam, it would be the allies, only more intense than Ukraine with a better organized coalition. The did pretty good with the global system of trade and finance, it would be hard to grow faster than they did, so why fuck it up and cut off their and the worlds supply of advanced microchips? Defending Taiwan is in the vital national security interests of every industrialized country on earth and will be for nearly a decade. They are a crucial link in the global high tech supply chain, most of the world's advanced microprocessors and other electronics are made there. If China attacked them it would mean war and war with more than America alone, even Vietnam would be on our side FFS!

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

I neglected to add in the above that EVERY year the Chinese launch the equivalent of the entire French navy in new ships,and France's navy, while not huge,is considered very capable.

The purpose of a Navy is to protect trade and America has been protecting Chinese trade, they can be strong in their region, but start acting like assholes and there will be trouble that China does not need. Expanding into Asia using soft economic power would be ok with the west, the British and American model worked quite well for decades and labor in those places is cheap, just own the mines and factories, politicians too.

 

[Roger A. Shrubber]

As Adm. Yamamoto looked out at the vast Pacific from his flagship of the carrier task force that just struck Pearl Harbor he was sullen and not celebratory as were the other Japanese officers,he remarked that "America's industrial might is awesome". As I sit here today as an American,who is witnessing war clouds gather in the Pacific once again I feel the roles are reversed. Our de-facto opponent (China) are the ones whose industrial might is awesome. Their navy is comprised of all new or almost new surface combatants,they have 6 shipyards(and are building more) of which their largest one outstrips the USA's capacity of all our shipyards combined. Our surface fleet (particularly the Tichonderoga class Aegis cruisers) are long in the tooth,our decision making in procurement(especially in designing LCS boats in place of a actual blue water frigate) has set us back at least a decade.I believe that only the experience of our brave sailors is the only thing stopping Mr. Xi from throwing punches in place of all his flexing. Let's all hope it stays that way because the odds are starting to stack up unfavorably.

there's a lot more to it than that...and even with some out dated equipment, our navy and airforce are nothing to fuck with.
but a lot of the real deterrents are political, and social.
they can see what the rest of the world thinks about russia's actions, and they can see what the rest of the world is doing about it.
they're in a period of contraction right now, with entire cities sitting empty, no people to fill them. they don't need real estate, they need economic growth, and war only provides that short term. they're also dealing with covid, after about the worse mismanagement program on the entire planet...i'm expecting them to lose millions before it's over, with their ineffective vaccines and reluctance to accept any outside help at all.
they are conflicted, and the best thing that could happen for them (and coincidentally, for us) is for Xi to die, and for someone more moderate to take over, but he's only 69...not young, but not old enough to drop dead tomorrow... and he doesn't appear to be seriously ill, so don't count on his being replaced anytime soon...
i think younger party members will have a lot different attitudes, once they get a chance to express them without poohbear looking over their shoulders. we just have to stick it out a few more years.

 

[CCGNZ]

America will not be alone if it confronts China both militarily and most importantly economically and the only way that will happen is if they attack another liberal democracy. Xi won't last forever and they are coming around, but with a bit of "face saving" first, speaking of face, Xi just had his fall off over covid. Then there are China's internal economic problems and recent financial crises. Chana will turn to the east and central Asia and will be taking advantage of the vacuum there left by the Russians. They have rail lines into there already it has oil, resources and markets with internal lines of communication. There might be a lot going on to the north of them in the coming decade as the Russian empire comes apart and they will want to take advantage of that too.

Almost all their markets are in the west among allied or friendly countries, because it would not jut be Uncle Sam, it would be the allies, only more intense than Ukraine with a better organized coalition. The did pretty good with the global system of trade and finance, it would be hard to grow faster than they did, so why fuck it up and cut off their and the worlds supply of advanced microchips? Defending Taiwan is in the vital national security interests of every industrialized country on earth and will be for nearly a decade. They are a crucial link in the global high tech supply chain, most of the world's advanced microprocessors and other electronics are made there. If China attacked them it would mean war and war with more than America alone, even Vietnam would be on our side FFS!

You raise intelligent points,as always,but Xi didn't give a shit about his economy for 3 years w/his Covid lockdown,and yeah picking the bones of a weakened Russia surely gets his attention but Taiwan is and always will be the "apple of the CCP's eye" , and I know the US won't be on our own,I've looked at Japan recently and their navy is pretty well equipped. The US also has all our traditional bros.England,France,Canada,Australia,among others but there is no denying that this is a unique challenge,a pumped up dragon looking to avenge more than a century of cowing to the west and bringing back a rogue,stray faction of China back to the fold. I have the feeling Xi is basing his whole legacy upon this issue and I surely hope I'm mistaken.

 

[Roger A. Shrubber]

You raise intelligent points,as always,but Xi didn't give a shit about his economy for 3 years w/his Covid lockdown,and yeah picking the bones of a weakened Russia surely gets his attention but Taiwan is and always will be the "apple of the CCP's eye" , and I know the US won't be on our own,I've looked at Japan recently and their navy is pretty well equipped. The US also has all our traditional bros.England,France,Canada,Australia,among others but there is no denying that this is a unique challenge,a pumped up dragon looking to avenge more than a century of cowing to the west and bringing back a rogue,stray faction of China back to the fold. I have the feeling Xi is basing his whole legacy upon this issue and I surely hope I'm mistaken.

while i don't expect them to act like an American or a European would act, the Chinese have gotten a taste of freedom, a taste of western culture, and they like it.
they just staged massive demonstrations, which is not something that happens often in China, and they were actually effective...they got what they wanted, at least partially. without huge crack downs, without government retribution.
https://www.cfr.org/blog/did-chinas-street-protests-end-harsh-covid-policies
the times, they are a'changin....but who can say for better or worse?

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

You raise intelligent points,as always,but Xi didn't give a shit about his economy for 3 years w/his Covid lockdown,and yeah picking the bones of a weakened Russia surely gets his attention but Taiwan is and always will be the "apple of the CCP's eye" , and I know the US won't be on our own,I've looked at Japan recently and their navy is pretty well equipped. The US also has all our traditional bros.England,France,Canada,Australia,among others but there is no denying that this is a unique challenge,a pumped up dragon looking to avenge more than a century of cowing to the west and bringing back a rogue,stray faction of China back to the fold. I have the feeling Xi is basing his whole legacy upon this issue and I surely hope I'm mistaken.

Everybody is wary of China in southeast Asia and that is where the Asian tiger economies are, those will grow even faster now at China's expense. South Korea and Japan are powerful allies and the Philippines is far more developed these days along with Vietnam and Indonesia, all would be aligned with the west and Europe. A politically unstable Russia could put another adversary at their backs in another decade. China has a place in the global economy and has done well so far, but internal mismanagement and corruption are catching up to them. We elect our leaders with a free press every few years and look at how corrupt many of them are, now imagine if they weren't elected or there weren't a free press. How long before it ends up like Russia or North Korea? A corrupt society from top to bottom where people live in fear and like shit.

 

[CCGNZ]

while i don't expect them to act like an American or a European would act, the Chinese have gotten a taste of freedom, a taste of western culture, and they like it.
they just staged massive demonstrations, which is not something that happens often in China, and they were actually effective...they got what they wanted, at least partially. without huge crack downs, without government retribution.
https://www.cfr.org/blog/did-chinas-street-protests-end-harsh-covid-policies
the times, they are a'changin....but who can say for better or worse?

Yeah,I don't disagree and was surprised by that(pleasantly),I hope yourself and LED are correct on this and we don't come to blows over Taiwan in the Pacific,it'd surely be a catostrophic confrontation with large losses of life and treasure. I'm willing to bet that the ringleaders of those lockdown demonstrations have disappeared already courtesy of the CCP,surely a price was paid for any hint of Mr. Xi getting shown up.

 

[Roger A. Shrubber]

Yeah,I don't disagree and was surprised by that(pleasantly),I hope yourself and LED are correct on this and we don't come to blows over Taiwan in the Pacific,it'd surely be a catostrophic confrontation with large losses of life and treasure. I'm willing to bet that the ringleaders of those lockdown demonstrations have disappeared already courtesy of the CCP,surely a price was paid for any hint of Mr. Xi getting shown up.

They have a unique problem in Taiwan.
They consider it part of their territory, while the natives do not...part of their desire to reattain Taiwan is to re-establish control over territory they consider their own.
part of their desire to reattain Taiwan is to control the production of Chips...which they cannot realistically do.
they could physically take the facilities, but they do not have the expertise to produce a high quality product, or they would already be doing so for their own use. They will need the Willing cooperation of the operaters of those facilities to produce anything more advanced than they can already produce themselves, and they will not get that, and know it.
i recently read that many of those facilities are actually planting destructive devices in their own equipment in case of an invasion...as recommended by our military...https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3089&context=parameters
so they might be able to take the physical facilities, but they don't have the expertise to operate the machinery to produce the best results, and they don't have any supply chain to repair those machines once they need maintenance.
the whole thing seems to be a lose/lose for them.
a bigger international win for them would be to sit down and negotiate with the Taiwanese, and to grant them guaranteed sovereignty, in exchange for favored trade status...
that might stick in America's craw a little, but it would go a long way towards establishing world stability.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

They have a unique problem in Taiwan.
They consider it part of their territory, while the natives do not...part of their desire to reattain Taiwan is to re-establish control over territory they consider their own.
part of their desire to reattain Taiwan is to control the production of Chips...which they cannot realistically do.
they could physically take the facilities, but they do not have the expertise to produce a high quality product, or they would already be doing so for their own use. They will need the Willing cooperation of the operaters of those facilities to produce anything more advanced than they can already produce themselves, and they will not get that, and know it.
i recently read that many of those facilities are actually planting destructive devices in their own equipment in case of an invasion...as recommended by our military...https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3089&context=parameters
so they might be able to take the physical facilities, but they don't have the expertise to operate the machinery to produce the best results, and they don't have any supply chain to repair those machines once they need maintenance.
the whole thing seems to be a lose/lose for them.
a bigger international win for them would be to sit down and negotiate with the Taiwanese, and to grant them guaranteed sovereignty, in exchange for favored trade status...
that might stick in America's craw a little, but it would go a long way towards establishing world stability.

The problem with China now is an imperialist mindset, the same problem with Russia. The UN decided long go that the people living in a place have the sole right of self determination, not a former imperial power. Empires left a political mess of the world, from South America, to Africa, to the middle east, to Asia, most dissolved in the 20th century, but the ones who turned communist hung on a little longer fueled by misguided and discredited ideology or upheld by security forces through ideological change like in China. The future of Taiwan is for them to decide not China and they cleverly maneuvered themselves into a vital position in the global economy. Countries have interests, not friendships is an old saying that is still true, but to a lesser extent, because public opinion counts for much these days too.

 

[CCGNZ]

They have a unique problem in Taiwan.
They consider it part of their territory, while the natives do not...part of their desire to reattain Taiwan is to re-establish control over territory they consider their own.
part of their desire to reattain Taiwan is to control the production of Chips...which they cannot realistically do.
they could physically take the facilities, but they do not have the expertise to produce a high quality product, or they would already be doing so for their own use. They will need the Willing cooperation of the operaters of those facilities to produce anything more advanced than they can already produce themselves, and they will not get that, and know it.
i recently read that many of those facilities are actually planting destructive devices in their own equipment in case of an invasion...as recommended by our military...https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3089&context=parameters
so they might be able to take the physical facilities, but they don't have the expertise to operate the machinery to produce the best results, and they don't have any supply chain to repair those machines once they need maintenance.
the whole thing seems to be a lose/lose for them.
a bigger international win for them would be to sit down and negotiate with the Taiwanese, and to grant them guaranteed sovereignty, in exchange for favored trade status...
that might stick in America's craw a little, but it would go a long way towards establishing world stability.

Granting sovereignty for Taiwan by China,that would be considered a complete surrender by the Chinese and Xi would never show weakness like that IMO. I've given thought to a 5 yr. period of relocating the Taiwanese people(those who reject the CCP) and their industrial base and ceding the island to China upon completion. An immense undertaking surely,w/many variables to consider (where,sovereignty,etc.) , but a full tilt throwdown is also an immense undertaking,just a thought.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Granting sovereignty for Taiwan by China,that would be considered a complete surrender by the Chinese and Xi would never show weakness like that IMO. I've given thought to a 5 yr. period of relocating the Taiwanese people(those who reject the CCP) and their industrial base and ceding the island to China upon completion. An immense undertaking surely,w/many variables to consider (where,sovereignty,etc.) , but a full tilt throwdown is also an immense undertaking,just a thought.

They don't grant shit, it is up to the people living there period, they have no argument. If they tried to take Taiwan it would be war and the country would be destroyed, including the chip making facilities. If China didn't destroy them we would, rather than let them have it and the people who worked there would be working in the west at new fabs being built now. China is heavily dependent on exports and they would not be exporting much or importing much, even with a huge navy, that won't help much with sanctions and anti ship missiles, even those on small disposable drone boats controlled by starlink.

 

[Roger A. Shrubber]

They don't grant shit, it is up to the people living there period, they have no argument. If they tried to take Taiwan it would be war and the country would be destroyed, including the chip making facilities. If China didn't destroy them we would, rather than let them have it and the people who worked there would be working in the west at new fabs being built now. China is heavily dependent on exports and they would not be exporting much or importing much, even with a huge navy, that won't help much with sanctions and anti ship missiles, even those on small disposable drone boats controlled by starlink.

If China decides not to recognize that sovereignty, then granting it to themselves means nothing.
and what you're suggesting is waiting for an aggressive country to destroy an ally, so that they can be relocated to a more secure position, and put to work in a new fabricating facility...in the wake of their home being destroyed and all their lives essentially ruined...and the only alternative would be for us to destroy their homes and livelihoods so that the Chinese can't seize the equipment...what a humanitarian statement....
how do you propose we evacuate those 23.57 million people under war conditions? or do you only propose we take the few thousand key chip fabrication techs, and allow the rest to suffer whatever fate the Chinese deal them?
do you suppose the Chinese will be content with Taiwan, either way? once they're in motion, they might want to reclaim some more territory...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_of_the_People's_Republic_of_China
they seem to have a large shopping list...

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

If China decides not to recognize that sovereignty, then granting it to themselves means nothing.
and what you're suggesting is waiting for an aggressive country to destroy an ally, so that they can be relocated to a more secure position, and put to work in a new fabricating facility...in the wake of their home being destroyed and all their lives essentially ruined...and the only alternative would be for us to destroy their homes and livelihoods so that the Chinese can't seize the equipment...what a humanitarian statement....
how do you propose we evacuate those 23.57 million people under war conditions? or do you only propose we take the few thousand key chip fabrication techs, and allow the rest to suffer whatever fate the Chinese deal them?
do you suppose the Chinese will be content with Taiwan, either way? once they're in motion, they might want to reclaim some more territory...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_of_the_People's_Republic_of_China
they seem to have a large shopping list...

I never advocated any of those things, just spelling out the realities of the situation. If China attacked Taiwan and there was war the chip making facilities would be destroyed and some of the workers would relocate to other places where chip fabs are being built now. The reality is we are building chip fabs in American and the EU in anticipation of trouble and moving China out of the supply chains for strategic things, that is policy.

As far as the UN goes China does not have a say in the fate of Taiwan, the people do, just like in Ukraine. If China does invade Taiwan they will feed a lot of fishes by Taiwanese efforts alone destroying most of them at their points of embarkation. The war would end up like Russia's war with Ukraine and have a lot of unintended domestic consequences. They got a taste of what could happen with covid protests and war would mean mass unemployment, they are a government with no real legitimacy and they know it.

 

[cannabineer]

What scares me more than the numbers is the fact our officers no longer learn how to navigate the old fashioned way. Everyone uses computers now. If the balloon goes up, there is a good chance we take out each others sats.

They also don't spend as long with hands on ship handling. Lots of shipwrecks in the last few years just from over crowded waterways.

A sextant is not a canvas cathouse. No matter what the Marines might say.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

"You only have one week left": Reznikov warns Russians about Putin's plans

Oleksii Reznikov, the Minister of Defence of Ukraine, has warned the Russians that their leadership is preparing for a new "wave" of mobilisation and planning to close the borders within a week. Source: Reznikov's video address Quote: "On the eve of the New Year, I want to address the citizens...

news.yahoo.com