War

[printer]

russia has about 140 million people, but they're about 65% female. Not that women can't or won't fight, but so far, the russians seem to avoid drafting women.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/08/14/why-the-former-ussr-has-far-fewer-men-than-women/#:~:text=The gender ratio in Russia,Soviet nations are similarly low.
that's roughly 50 million men.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1005416/population-russia-gender-age-group/
if you ad the columns from age 15 all the way through age 65, for men, you get 35.4 million.
That certainly seems like a sufficient number, but you have to take into account that some are the children of influential parents, some have handicaps that prevent them from serving, some will just refuse to go, some will be involved in critical industries, ...but even taking all of that into account, they should still have 25 million men of serving age.
The problems seems to be finding them adequate gear to fight with, taking the time to give them training of any kind, and the unsuitability of the command structure of the russian army.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1006655/ukraine-population-by-age-group/
it looks like Ukraine has about 20-25 million adults of fighting age, but as they will have roughly the same percentage that can't/won't fight, and a percentage of their women who can't fight, call that 16-18 million, but 16-18 million that have good gear, decent training, in a better command structure, with no shortage of weapons, no real shortage of ammunition, more modern, better maintained weapons, better medical care, and usually better intell.
They're also defending their homes, on territory many of them are familiar with.
I can't see the russians being able to sustain their assaults for long before they'll have to start rounding up men in the streets and forcing them to fight at spear point, as bullets will be too scarce to waste on deserters...It's all good for the russians to say they support putin on camera, but will they support him with a rusty rifle and a handful of ammunition, wearing worn out shit that smells like mold, and doesn't keep them warm, knowing that they're going to die whether they advance or retreat?

I calculated about 55% women, saw the number you had, decided to look around some. The world bank says woman are about 54.6%.

 

[Fogdog]

i hope so, but russia is willing to kill millions to achieve their goal, probably enough to cause their birth rate to drop to an unsustainable level...they will literally murder themselves into extinction...

Not the Russian people, though. The decision to invade and to continue after all hope of achieving the reasons given for the invasion are entirely Putin's. The people have had no part in this decision.

 

[BudmanTX]

Not what you want going on in your lap

Well?

 

[BudmanTX]

What a lovely fireworks show Putin provided for Valentine's day.

I honestly loved it too...nice kaboom

 

[OldMedUser]

I calculated about 55% women, saw the number you had, decided to look around some. The world bank says woman are about 54.6%.

Yeah but that percentage is creeping upwards fast.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Now the problem is a traffic jam of equipment and weapons! Sounds like they are gearing up for D day!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1625703350028189697

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

UK ministry of defense says 97% of Russia's army is in Ukraine! Talk about a last desperate roll of the dice during mud season. With just 3% left in Russia, who will train the recruits and defend the country? If they are trapped and destroyed in Ukraine, they won't have an army left and will just hide behind their nukes.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-64634760

Summary

1. UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace says that 97% of the Russian army is now estimated to be in Ukraine
2. They are suffering "First World War levels of attrition", he tells the BBC, but rules out sending fighter jets to Ukrainian forces anytime soon.

A meeting of Nato defence ministers is under way in Brussels for a second day, with Western allies discussing how they can bolster Ukraine's defences against Russian forces.

Russia's failing strategy: Speaking to the BBC before heading into the Nato talks, British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said Russia had not been able to "punch through" Ukraine's defences, and that 97% of its army was estimated to be in Ukraine

 

[CCGNZ]

i'm so fucking sick of hearing about russia's antique nuclear arsenal. sink those ships, every damn one of them, before they have a chance to do a damn thing.

Not to be contrarian,but Russia has a more modern ICBM fleet than the US does, Minuteman 111 is to be replaced eventually by Sentinel,the US has tried to de-emphasize Nukes w/precision conventional weapons.But the rest of the world seems to be upping their game probably because they lack the technology and figure the big stick is their best bet for deterrence,it's prob. time for US to declare a no first use policy.

 

[CCGNZ]

Since we don’t have reliable casualty counts, it’s tough to call. All else being equal, Russian command could take five casualties for every two by the Ukrainians, and still drive them to exhaustion. It’s a strategy that has worked for Russia in living memory.

Who'd have thought on Feb. 23 that this would be a Stalingrad 2.0 in light of the Iraq war 30+ yrs. ago,had to figure that had Russia been 20 yrs. behind in tech that is still 10 yrs. more advanced than 1990. And to see WW1 style cratering from relentless artillery along a static front and villages w/not one roof intact,REMARKABLE

 

[Roger A. Shrubber]

https://fortune.com/2022/12/03/declining-birth-rate-population-russia-millennials-gen-z-blame-putin-covid-ukraine-invasion/#:~:text=Since the Soviet Union's collapse,obsessed over Russia's shrinking population.

no laugh emoji from anyone? funny how assholes laugh, then when you prove what you were saying they shut their mouths....too bad it's only temporary.

 

[Roger A. Shrubber]

Not what you want going on in your lap

and the fucking russians will deploy those in towns and villages...
there isn't enough time left in our lifetimes to prosecute all of the war criminals in russia.
the country needs to be broken up, in a controlled manner, or they will just keep doing this shit till they are.
Nato needs to get the fuck off of its ass and start taking care of this problem, or this problem will start kicking their doors down on it's own.
In the middle of a losing war, russia is still trying to start MORE shit with Moldova, Still talking shit about Poland, Still talking about who is next...
They have no remorse, no shame, no honor...they deserve to be reduced to one rump state out of 20, none of which will retain any nukes, if they want to survive past the end of the day.

 

[Roger A. Shrubber]

Not the Russian people, though. The decision to invade and to continue after all hope of achieving the reasons given for the invasion are entirely Putin's. The people have had no part in this decision.

they know what decisions are being made, and they don't seem to be staging anymore large protests about it...complicity.

 

[Roger A. Shrubber]

Now the problem is a traffic jam of equipment and weapons! Sounds like they are gearing up for D day!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1625703350028189697

that's a problem, but as problems go, i'll take it.

 

[Roger A. Shrubber]

will just hide behind their nukes.

that's what they've always done...it's past time to call that fucking bluff.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

that's what they've always done...it's past time to call that fucking bluff.

Only if there is a need or they use them outside their borders, other than that, they can be defeated and destroyed militarily by conventional means. Their army and economy are fucked, so drive them inside their borders and let them whither on the vine. The war crimes will mean they won't get out from under sanctions even with peace and regime change. Using nukes can go sideways in a hurry and are to be avoided, using whatever other extreme measures are available and only if required. Let them bleed out and die from the mortal wound they are receiving.

 

[CCGNZ]

Not the Russian people, though. The decision to invade and to continue after all hope of achieving the reasons given for the invasion are entirely Putin's. The people have had no part in this decision.

This is the result of Autocracy,w/puppet branches of govt. that rubber stamp one man's wishes. I'm just puzzled by the end game when both sides have exhausted themselves.All questions and no answers,many scary variables. I think the loss of Crimea would be considered a threat to Russian sovereignty by the Russians,Russia is strategically FKD losing it,triggering potential Nuke use.In absence of a complete victor,which seems remote,who is acceptable to mediate any kind of lasting peace that prevents further hostilities.Who replaces Putin ( all "experts" suggest an even more right wing fanatic)?Is a completely broken/ desperate Russia w/all those nukes in tow the desirable outcome for the West?Who and how are the pieces of this vile conflict going to be sorted out? How can the hate and resentment from every possible angle this war has triggered be contained in the future? This is going to be a geo-political clusterfk of epic proportions and a competent solution is questionable at best.

 

[Roger A. Shrubber]

This is the result of Autocracy,w/puppet branches of govt. that rubber stamp one man's wishes. I'm just puzzled by the end game when both sides have exhausted themselves.All questions and no answers,many scary variables. I think the loss of Crimea would be considered a threat to Russian sovereignty by the Russians,Russia is strategically FKD losing it,triggering potential Nuke use.In absence of a complete victor,which seems remote,who is acceptable to mediate any kind of lasting peace that prevents further hostilities.Who replaces Putin ( all "experts" suggest an even more right wing fanatic)?Is a completely broken/ desperate Russia w/all those nukes in tow the desirable outcome for the West?Who and how are the pieces of this vile conflict going to be sorted out? How can the hate and resentment from every possible angle this war has triggered be contained in the future? This is going to be a geo-political clusterfk of epic proportions and a competent solution is questionable at best.

How do you mediate peace with a homicidal liar who has delusions of Czarhood?
Serious question. How do you mediate peace with someone you KNOW won't honor the agreement?

 

[CCGNZ]

This is the result of Autocracy,w/puppet branches of govt. that rubber stamp one man's wishes. I'm just puzzled by the end game when both sides have exhausted themselves.All questions and no answers,many scary variables. I think the loss of Crimea would be considered a threat to Russian sovereignty by the Russians,Russia is strategically FKD losing it,triggering potential Nuke use.In absence of a complete victor,which seems remote,who is acceptable to mediate any kind of lasting peace that prevents further hostilities.Who replaces Putin ( all "experts" suggest an even more right wing fanatic)?Is a completely broken/ desperate Russia w/all those nukes in tow the desirable outcome for the West?Who and how are the pieces of this vile conflict going to be sorted out? How can the hate and resentment from every possible angle this war has triggered be contained in the future? This is going to be a geo-political clusterfk of epic proportions and a competent solution is questionable at best.

I'd like to be a fly on the wall in all these high level CIA,NSC,DIA agencies,when discussing all the potential scenarios in gaming this war. The concern over potential crisis's in the event of so many off the charts variables has to be at condition red. This has to highest level of stress in trying to contemplate,prepare, and react to potential unknowns that this conflict could thrust upon them in at least the last 50 yrs.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Not the Russian people, though. The decision to invade and to continue after all hope of achieving the reasons given for the invasion are entirely Putin's. The people have had no part in this decision.

There are reasons Putin attained power and retained it long enough to hold it and part of that reason is cultural. Who in their right mind would vote for a republican? Who in their right mind would vote for Putin? They were culturally primed for the propaganda that manipulates them, in Russia and in America. The Russian's have their sense of entitlement too, they had an empire and Russian culture dominated the USSR and now it dominates the ethnic republics. Sure there is autocratic totalitarian rule, but there is a cultural attitude that allows it too, for a greater cause, a greater Russia, security comes before liberty.

 

[Roger A. Shrubber]

I'd like to be a fly on the wall in all these high level CIA,NSC,DIA agencies,when discussing all the potential scenarios in gaming this war. The concern over potential crisis's in the event of so many off the charts variables has to be at condition red. This has to highest level of stress in trying to contemplate,prepare, and react to potential unknowns that this conflict could thrust upon them in at least the last 50 yrs.

and they have to deal with magat house reps and senators, night as well be briefing putin, for all the help they offer