War

[cannabineer]

Another example of polling distortions introduced by habit & method.

one of the most UNexamined sources of distortion is telephone culture.

we have two distinct such: cell culture & wire culture
Wire culture uses POTS (plain old telephone service) which is wired into the structure of home and office. The people who still maintain POTS lines have a culture of ANSWERING THE PHONE. EVERY time & quickly, if possible. As a result, they answer the phone prepared to interact & respond. They tend to be on average older, more rural, & more politically “conservative”. When engaged by pollsters, they generally attempt to co-operate, which makes them comparatively susceptible to pollsters’ carefully constructed questions. This makes it easy for a hired pollster to accumulate the numbers they want to deliver

Cell culture OTOH treats their phones entirely differently: as likely to ignore or block a caller as to answer (or more so), unique approaches to staying in touch, and no real sense of obligation to answer a call. They are far more disruptive to normal response accumulation, engaging with the pollsters in a challenging / questioning manner. This makes it easy for pollsters to eliminate them from the results.

in the poll in current question, the polling universe was 1200+; we don’t know if this is the number of contacts attempted, or of the accepted responses . This would inevitably involve a split between cell numbers & POTS numbers, and almost certainly result in more accepted conservative responses than theoretically ‘librul’ responses, due entirely to the phone culture involved.

To overcome this would require a structure intended to overcome it, such as making sure cell & POTS responses were *numerically* equivalent. Polling is very similar to telemarketing & direct mail marketing, in that there are lists: specifically, golden lists of numbers/respondents who consistently provide consistent responses (taking polls, GOP/Dem-friendly or hostile, falls for every sales pitch, buys every X, etc). Telemarketers for example LOVE lists of people who predictably spend money on telemarketed stuff - and they PAY TO HAVE THEM.

As I’ve said before, not all polling is even legit: a great deal of political polls are worked up by partisan pollsters-for-hire, seeking to provide their customers with numbers that support the contracted issues/positions. Such pollsters can easily obtain lists by region, by zip code, by state of those who will give the responses the customer wants, and those pollsters make bank

This is the reason some pollsters go out of their way to get a real cross-section of actual opinions in real numbers, and demographically broad; lots of times, they’re associated w/ universities & hired by media, interest groups, etc. Not that that makes them legit, but they probably don’t guarantee political results

I dislike polls being presented as news. Most readers don’t even know how they’re being manipulated.

Publishing that negative poll on aid for Ukraine gives the undecided reader psychological cover for choosing no.

In any case, polls should not factor into legislation, with a single exception: those polls that feature a ballot.

I find it unethical for TheHill to perpetuate this malarkey of presenting polls as if they’re news.

I might have aired such a complaint once or twice before.

(add) your insights into phone culture do much to explain systematic error/bias.

 

[Sativied]

Hold off…there’s plenty of time for that if it comes to it

What does 'it' mean in this context, the aid package from the US not being approved? This isn’t just on US republicans, the largest pending aid package is from the EU.

The situation is seriously complicated by the threat of nuclear escalation. It’s the same fear that led to US half-heartedly prosecuting the war in Vietnam.
[...]

It’s screwed in several dimensions.

So what you're saying is that there are circumstances that prevent the world from interfering in a decisive manner. Which would suggest that if the circumstances were different, we would interfere, effectively. I'm not so sure that's the case but let's imagine the most horrible actions Russians could take that would trigger troops on the ground and jets in the air. Or simply imagine Ukraine is already in NATO. When politicians say the words "We cannot let Putin win" it's just that, words. And it creates a false dilemma, win vs lose, a binary choice, while in reality there are only losers.

"The situation is seriously complicated by the threat of nuclear escalation. "
Is it though? Depends on how you look at it. It could make the situation very simple too. "You'll have to nuke us before we accept this". Let it be known that if you shoot rockets across the border to kill civilians or just people in general you automatically have to be willing to nuke the rest. Kinda like how you can hold a gun to my head to get my wallet, but you'll have to shoot me first to take my imaginary kids. The idea that Russia is going to nuke NATO members or members of another allied force just doesn't sound very realistic to me. Sounds like more fear-politics. I reject any more decision making based on fear. Not on fear for immigrants, for climate change, for people changing gender, for cunt farmers getting their backward feelings upset, for Putin shooting nukes, or any other rockets for that matter. I don't fear the destructiveness of a nuke any more or less than an arrow through the head. Either we accept the situation as it is and even prolong it, or we deal with it adequately.

 

[cannabineer]

What does 'it' mean in this context, the aid package from the US not being approved? This isn’t just on US republicans, the largest pending aid package is from the EU.



So what you're saying is that there are circumstances that prevent the world from interfering in a decisive manner. Which would suggest that if the circumstances were different, we would interfere, effectively. I'm not so sure that's the case but let's imagine the most horrible actions Russians could take that would trigger troops on the ground and jets in the air. Or simply imagine Ukraine is already in NATO. When politicians say the words "We cannot let Putin win" it's just that, words. And it creates a false dilemma, win vs lose, a binary choice, while in reality there are only losers.

"The situation is seriously complicated by the threat of nuclear escalation. "
Is it though? Depends on how you look at it. It could make the situation very simple too. "You'll have to nuke us before we accept this". Let it be known that if you shoot rockets across the border to kill civilians or just people in general you automatically have to be willing to nuke the rest. Kinda like how you can hold a gun to my head to get my wallet, but you'll have to shoot me first to take my imaginary kids. The idea that Russia is going to nuke NATO members or members of another allied force just doesn't sound very realistic to me. Sounds like more fear-politics. I reject any more decision making based on fear. Not on fear for immigrants, for climate change, for people changing gender, for cunt farmers getting their backward feelings upset, for Putin shooting nukes, or any other rockets for that matter. I don't fear the destructiveness of a nuke any more or less than an arrow through the head. Either we accept the situation as it is and even prolong it, or we deal with it adequately.

If I’m in the ballpark of being correct, it is very important not to create conditions where the seemingly trigger-happy Russians use even one nuke in a manner they consider internal i.e. Ukraine.

Let’s say they did. How would Nato respond? Let’s say that they get (conventionally) involved in the theater of operations on (pre-2014) Ukrainian territory.
Russia plays the existential threat card and uses another battlefield nuke or two, and now Nato forces are casualties.

From there, barriers to a more general nuclear exchange are few and tenuous.

It will probably come to the point that to be at all effective, Nato will need to call the Russian bluff, if it is one. But the danger of the conflict going nuclear (and from there, intercontinental) needs to be considered. I’m well out of my depth at that point.

That said, I hope the West ponies up the assistance Ukraine needs to survive and ultimately repel the Russian aggression. Imo it is much cheaper to give Ukraine many billions worth of material and advisory aid now than it would be to try to clean up after a Ukrainian military collapse.

Unfortunately, messy domestic politics in several Nato members stand in the way of letting military pros act in a timely manner.

 

[Sativied]

Are you suggesting it is less likely for Russia to use a nuke in Ukraine if we help Ukraine defeat them just barely rather than help end this with maximum support? Also, I’m pretty sure most Ukrainians would welcome an international force regardless of the risk. It’s like saying sorry we can’t help you really stop all those smaller projectiles cause Russian got bigger scarier rockets. Regardles, those are indeed the circumstances, not arguing against those, on the contrary, hence my point: humans sucks. The better ones are just strawberry-flavored lipstick on a pig.

I was just listening to Derk Sauer, founder of The Moscow Times, our national Russia expert, an insider who lived in Moscow for decades. Knows many Russians with different background. Some key points from what they tell him:

• a small minority is really against the war, a slightly larger minority is super pro war, and by far most don’t want to hear about it and just go on with their lives
• Lives that are for many better than ever, the restaurants in the cities are full, the oligarchs still enjoy all the pleaures of their position
• Casualties in major cities are very low, it’s mostly poor rural fools that are send to war. Areas that are now blossoming economically. A few families per neighborhood or town with a salary increase from a few hundred to a couple of thousand dollars a month will do that. If someone dies, family gets a bonus and they are honored by priests and neighbors and family.

Doesn’t look like sanctions haven’t worked in any meaningful way.

 

[cannabineer]

Are you suggesting it is less likely for Russia to use a nuke in Ukraine if we help Ukraine defeat them just barely rather than help end this with maximum support?

Yes. I hate to say so, but yes.

Also, I’m pretty sure most Ukrainians would welcome an international force regardless of the risk. It’s like saying sorry we can’t help you really stop all those smaller projectiles cause Russian got bigger scarier rockets.

Its not that simple. We have scarier rockets than the Russians … not in terms of explosive yield, but reliability and precision. However, and this is important— once we use any of them, we’ve lost. Not politically or militarily, but in terms of civilization. (It won’t entirely end, but a few centuries of a new dark age is likely.)

Regardles, those are indeed the circumstances, not arguing against those, on the contrary, hence my point: humans sucks. The better ones are just strawberry-flavored lipstick on a pig.

I cannot stand strawberries. I shudder at the very thought. You just made the pig worse.
Let’s neither of us do a Kromme Vinger please.

I was just listening to Derk Sauer, founder of The Moscow Times, our national Russia expert, an insider who lived in Moscow for decades. Knows many Russians with different background. Some key points from what they tell him:

• a small minority is really against the war, a slightly larger minority is super pro war, and by far most don’t want to hear about it and just go on with their lives
• Lives that are for many better than ever, the restaurants in the cities are full, the oligarchs still enjoy all the pleaures of their position
• Casualties in major cities are very low, it’s mostly poor rural fools that are send to war. Areas that are now blossoming economically. A few families per neighborhood or town with a salary increase from a few hundred to a couple of thousand dollars a month will do that. If someone dies, family gets a bonus and they are honored by priests and neighbors and family.

Doesn’t look like sanctions haven’t worked in any meaningful way.

Our sanctions are porous. Iran, China and other industrial powers are making the difference.

 

[printer]

What does 'it' mean in this context, the aid package from the US not being approved? This isn’t just on US republicans, the largest pending aid package is from the EU.



So what you're saying is that there are circumstances that prevent the world from interfering in a decisive manner. Which would suggest that if the circumstances were different, we would interfere, effectively. I'm not so sure that's the case but let's imagine the most horrible actions Russians could take that would trigger troops on the ground and jets in the air. Or simply imagine Ukraine is already in NATO. When politicians say the words "We cannot let Putin win" it's just that, words. And it creates a false dilemma, win vs lose, a binary choice, while in reality there are only losers.

"The situation is seriously complicated by the threat of nuclear escalation. "
Is it though? Depends on how you look at it. It could make the situation very simple too. "You'll have to nuke us before we accept this". Let it be known that if you shoot rockets across the border to kill civilians or just people in general you automatically have to be willing to nuke the rest. Kinda like how you can hold a gun to my head to get my wallet, but you'll have to shoot me first to take my imaginary kids. The idea that Russia is going to nuke NATO members or members of another allied force just doesn't sound very realistic to me. Sounds like more fear-politics. I reject any more decision making based on fear. Not on fear for immigrants, for climate change, for people changing gender, for cunt farmers getting their backward feelings upset, for Putin shooting nukes, or any other rockets for that matter. I don't fear the destructiveness of a nuke any more or less than an arrow through the head. Either we accept the situation as it is and even prolong it, or we deal with it adequately.

WWI and WWII really should not have happened.

 

[Sativied]

WWI and WWII really should not have happened.

Yeah but inevitability and human nature, or as I like to call it: broken instinct.

Its not that simple.

In this context simple is just a very subjective human construct. It can be as simple as we want it to be. If Russia would threaten to use nukes with 100% certainty unless we allow them to do [fill in something obviously unreasonable we would not tolerate] we’d not accept it. WOMD is a given but not a free pass for every action or against every reaction. It’s where we draw the line that is telling. The circumstances regarding why we don’t adequately interfere and thus tolerate this to go on longer doesn’t change the fact we do. If Ukraine was a NATO member it would be very different. That alone is embarrassing and says a lot about humanity and makes me want to change species. To a bird preferably, so I can shit on humans.

Those crazy Christians may be on to something after all when they metaphorically claim every child is born with sin. Heck, remove all the adults from the equation and they’ll still end up killing eachother and their environment.

 

[cannabineer]

Yeah but inevitability and human nature, or as I like to call it: broken instinct.


In this context simple is just a very subjective human construct. It can be as simple as we want it to be. If Russia would threaten to use nukes with 100% certainty unless we allow them to do [fill in something obviously unreasonable we would not tolerate] we’d not accept it. WOMD is a given but not a free pass for every action or against every reaction. It’s where we draw the line that is telling. The circumstances regarding why we don’t adequately interfere and thus tolerate this to go on longer doesn’t change the fact we do. If Ukraine was a NATO member it would be very different. That alone is embarrassing and says a lot about humanity and makes me want to change species. To a bird preferably, so I can shit on humans.

I would not choose bird. They’re delicious. Hunters ignore porcupines because they taste like turpentine. (They eat pine seedlings.)

Those crazy Christians may be on to something after all when they metaphorically claim every child is born with sin. Heck, remove all the adults from the equation and they’ll still end up killing eachother and their environment.

That is why Lord of the Flies is an important book. It treats of exactly that: the external nature of morality.

 

[CCGNZ]

Yeah but inevitability and human nature, or as I like to call it: broken instinct.


In this context simple is just a very subjective human construct. It can be as simple as we want it to be. If Russia would threaten to use nukes with 100% certainty unless we allow them to do [fill in something obviously unreasonable we would not tolerate] we’d not accept it. WOMD is a given but not a free pass for every action or against every reaction. It’s where we draw the line that is telling. The circumstances regarding why we don’t adequately interfere and thus tolerate this to go on longer doesn’t change the fact we do. If Ukraine was a NATO member it would be very different. That alone is embarrassing and says a lot about humanity and makes me want to change species. To a bird preferably, so I can shit on humans.

Those crazy Christians may be on to something after all when they metaphorically claim every child is born with sin. Heck, remove all the adults from the equation and they’ll still end up killing eachother and their environment.

Agree,WMD threat and "Spheres of Influence" ( Russia has traditionally been dominant in Ukraine's geographical location) made the West tread carefully, in hindsight time was wasted in equipping Ukraine especially concerning last summer. Trying to measure quantity and quality of what systems to give in order not overescalate is maddening and it is becoming apparent that Ukraine is equipped to not lose instead of to actually win. Unless a "come to reality" moment prevails it is beginning to look like Putin's wait them out strategy concerning the West combined w/the tried and true Russian doctrine of "we can out bleed the opponent" may come sadly to fruition.

 

[printer]

https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1734179185659154442?s=20

Where is Navalny? Putin’s nemesis goes missing
Vladimir Putin this week informally kicked off his presidential election campaign by inaugurating two nuclear submarines in Russia’s north ― while his biggest political foe, Alexei Navalny, vanished from the radar.

Navalny’s allies say they have been unable to contact the imprisoned opposition politician since Tuesday last week.
They say the prison where he was being held in Melekhovo, some 200 kilometers east of Moscow, initially attributed his disappearance to electricity problems, which they suspect was a stalling tactic while Navalny was being moved. On Monday, those suspicions were confirmed when Navalny’s lawyer was reportedly told by prison staff that the opposition politician was no longer there.

Navalny’s supporters have been expecting such a development ever since a judge in August sentenced him to an additional 19 years in a “special regime” prison on extremism charges. But they and some independent analysts say the move has been deliberately timed, coming shortly after Putin on Friday announced he would — surprise, surprise — run for a fifth term in March’s vote.

“This is 0 percent coincidence and 100 percent manual steering from the Kremlin,” Navalny’s close ally, Leonid Volkov, wrote on Telegram.
“Putin knows who his main opponent is at these ‘elections.’ And he wants to make sure Navalny’s voice is not heard,” Volkov added.
“This way they want to isolate Alexei so he can’t receive information and can’t influence events,” Navalny’s spokeswoman Kira Yarmysh told the Russian-language Breakfast Show radio broadcast based in Riga on Tuesday morning.

The EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell on Tuesday described Navalny’s disappearance as “highly worrying.”
“Russia’s political leadership is responsible for his safety & health in prison for which they will be held to account,” he wrote on X, formerly Twitter.
Despite being isolated and under strict surveillance, Navalny has managed to get his message out with frequent posts on social media including, last week, a plan encouraging Russians to launch an informational campaign against Putin.

Navalny’s team said he could have been moved to any of an estimated 30 prisons across Russia.
“There’s nothing stopping them from hiding him for as long as they want,” Yarmysh said.
Responding to a question on Navalny, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Tuesday said the Kremlin had “neither the intention nor the capacity” to track inmates’ locations.

Meanwhile, Putin on Monday made his first post-election announcement trip to northern Russia’s Severodvinsk, where he attended a flag-raising ceremony for two nuclear submarines for Russia’s Pacific Fleet.
“With such ships and such weapons, Russia will feel that it is safe,” he said.

Where is Navalny? Putin’s nemesis goes missing

Imprisoned Russian opposition leader disappears off the radar as president informally kicks off election campaign.

www.politico.eu

 

[CCGNZ]

https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1734179185659154442?s=20

Where is Navalny? Putin’s nemesis goes missing
Vladimir Putin this week informally kicked off his presidential election campaign by inaugurating two nuclear submarines in Russia’s north ― while his biggest political foe, Alexei Navalny, vanished from the radar.

Navalny’s allies say they have been unable to contact the imprisoned opposition politician since Tuesday last week.
They say the prison where he was being held in Melekhovo, some 200 kilometers east of Moscow, initially attributed his disappearance to electricity problems, which they suspect was a stalling tactic while Navalny was being moved. On Monday, those suspicions were confirmed when Navalny’s lawyer was reportedly told by prison staff that the opposition politician was no longer there.

Navalny’s supporters have been expecting such a development ever since a judge in August sentenced him to an additional 19 years in a “special regime” prison on extremism charges. But they and some independent analysts say the move has been deliberately timed, coming shortly after Putin on Friday announced he would — surprise, surprise — run for a fifth term in March’s vote.

“This is 0 percent coincidence and 100 percent manual steering from the Kremlin,” Navalny’s close ally, Leonid Volkov, wrote on Telegram.
“Putin knows who his main opponent is at these ‘elections.’ And he wants to make sure Navalny’s voice is not heard,” Volkov added.
“This way they want to isolate Alexei so he can’t receive information and can’t influence events,” Navalny’s spokeswoman Kira Yarmysh told the Russian-language Breakfast Show radio broadcast based in Riga on Tuesday morning.

The EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell on Tuesday described Navalny’s disappearance as “highly worrying.”
“Russia’s political leadership is responsible for his safety & health in prison for which they will be held to account,” he wrote on X, formerly Twitter.
Despite being isolated and under strict surveillance, Navalny has managed to get his message out with frequent posts on social media including, last week, a plan encouraging Russians to launch an informational campaign against Putin.

Navalny’s team said he could have been moved to any of an estimated 30 prisons across Russia.
“There’s nothing stopping them from hiding him for as long as they want,” Yarmysh said.
Responding to a question on Navalny, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Tuesday said the Kremlin had “neither the intention nor the capacity” to track inmates’ locations.

Meanwhile, Putin on Monday made his first post-election announcement trip to northern Russia’s Severodvinsk, where he attended a flag-raising ceremony for two nuclear submarines for Russia’s Pacific Fleet.
“With such ships and such weapons, Russia will feel that it is safe,” he said.

Where is Navalny? Putin’s nemesis goes missing

Imprisoned Russian opposition leader disappears off the radar as president informally kicks off election campaign.

www.politico.eu

What a shame that such a courageous, well intentioned,man who would be more open minded concerning the West as well as genuinely interested in improving lives of the Russian people gets the off to Siberia treatment,while I give him major kudos for balls,he never should have returned to Russia and could have been much more of a thorn to Putin as a dissident.

 

[printer]

What a shame that such a courageous, well intentioned,man who would be more open minded concerning the West as well as genuinely interested in improving lives of the Russian people gets the off to Siberia treatment,while I give him major kudos for balls,he never should have returned to Russia and could have been much more of a thorn to Putin as a dissident.

I agree about not going back to Russia but I doubt he thought of the rest of his life locked up at the time. On his ideology, he was closer aligned to ultra-nationalists, not that it maters now.

 

[Sativied]

Trying to measure quantity and quality of what systems to give in order not overescalate is maddening and it is becoming apparent that Ukraine is equipped to not lose instead of to actually win.

Exactly that.

Those F16s NL promised, 18 parked in Belgium, 6 supposed to go to a training company in the US, 12 ready to go. Two-seaters, larger cockpit, more weight so slighlty less action radius. But, ready to go nonetheless. It’s as if NL was like let’s talk about the intent publicly for a long time and see how Putin responds. Then promise the F16s and wait a year to see again how Putin responds. It’s like expanding the Overton window but instead of what’s acceptable to the public it’s about what Putin will accept. If those F16s will ever show up in Ukraine it won’t be anytime soon, or soon enough.

Much of the aid and equipment promised and posted in this thread never actually made it to Ukraine.

Not looking good in NL, looks like the center-right will help the nazis and cunt farmer party to rule. They wanted to end support for Ukraine and kick out Ukrainian refugees. Recent polls and research has showed them that’s not what their voters want so it looks like not much will change regarding our commitment to supporting Ukraine in preventing both sides from winning… However, Orban, PM of Hungary, wants to block EU aid. Our possibly new nazi PM, Wilders, has a Hungarian wife, and is buddies with Orban… If not the current planned aid, it’s far from unlikely they will team up and block future support.

I don’t believe Putin or any Russian in charge is willing to have Moscow & St. Petersburg destroyed over a piece of Ukraine. It reminds me of a Gang Starr song, The Illest Brother [gets respect]. Putin’s like ”Like I said I`m an ill kid, so never dare test me”. Fuck him, I’m unimpressed.

 

[cannabineer]

Exactly that.

Those F16s NL promised, 18 parked in Belgium, 6 supposed to go to a training company in the US, 12 ready to go. Two-seaters, larger cockpit, more weight so slighlty less action radius. But, ready to go nonetheless. It’s as if NL was like let’s talk about the intent publicly for a long time and see how Putin responds. Then promise the F16s and wait a year to see again how Putin responds. It’s like expanding the Overton window but instead of what’s acceptable to the public it’s about what Putin will accept. If those F16s will ever show up in Ukraine it won’t be anytime soon, or soon enough.

Much of the aid and equipment promised and posted in this thread never actually made it to Ukraine.

Not looking good in NL, looks like the center-right will help the nazis and cunt farmer party to rule. They wanted to end support for Ukraine and kick out Ukrainian refugees. Recent polls and research has showed them that’s not what their voters want so it looks like not much will change regarding our commitment to supporting Ukraine in preventing both sides from winning… However, Orban, PM of Hungary, wants to block EU aid. Our possibly new nazi PM, Wilders, has a Hungarian wife, and is buddies with Orban… If not the current planned aid, it’s far from unlikely they will team up and block future support.

I don’t believe Putin or any Russian in charge is willing to have Moscow & St. Petersburg destroyed over a piece of Ukraine. It reminds me of a Gang Starr song, The Illest Brother [gets respect]. Putin’s like ”Like I said I`m an ill kid, so never dare test me”. Fuck him, I’m unimpressed.

I’ll hold out a crumb of hope that the rate-limiting step is training Ukrainian pilots into the type. This article states that the training should be done around year’s end, but cautions that seeing them in combat will be (an unspecified time) later.

Ukrainian pilots begin F-16 training in Arizona

The F-16 fundamentals training course is expected to last several months, an Air Force spokesperson said.

www.airforcetimes.com

 

[BudmanTX]

Exactly that.

Those F16s NL promised, 18 parked in Belgium, 6 supposed to go to a training company in the US, 12 ready to go. Two-seaters, larger cockpit, more weight so slighlty less action radius. But, ready to go nonetheless. It’s as if NL was like let’s talk about the intent publicly for a long time and see how Putin responds. Then promise the F16s and wait a year to see again how Putin responds. It’s like expanding the Overton window but instead of what’s acceptable to the public it’s about what Putin will accept. If those F16s will ever show up in Ukraine it won’t be anytime soon, or soon enough.

Training for the F16's is in Romania, this way as soon as there done training they can go straight to theatre. I was personally looking at attack Helo's like maybe early Apache or something like that or even a few Black Hawks for troop deployment......

 

[printer]

I don’t believe Putin or any Russian in charge is willing to have Moscow & St. Petersburg destroyed over a piece of Ukraine. It reminds me of a Gang Starr song, The Illest Brother [gets respect]. Putin’s like ”Like I said I`m an ill kid, so never dare test me”. Fuck him, I’m unimpressed.

These are the most important cities in Russia, if there was any big threat to them it could be seen as an existential threat which would trigger a nuke.

 

[Sativied]

I’ll hold out a crumb of hope that the rate-limiting step is training Ukrainian pilots into the type. This article states that the training should be done around year’s end, but cautions that seeing them in combat will be (an unspecified time) later.

Ukrainian pilots begin F-16 training in Arizona

The F-16 fundamentals training course is expected to last several months, an Air Force spokesperson said.

www.airforcetimes.com

I’m aware of that and I’ll believe they can‘t handle all 18 just yet but a couple? Also, it will probably be long after year’s end before the F16s will actually be delivered. Last but not least, if NL would have been faster with deciding and US faster with approving, the training would have begun earlier as well. Training center in Romania opened just last month.

These are the most important cities in Russia, if there was any big threat to them it could be seen as an existential threat which would trigger a nuke.

Exactly…

 

[cannabineer]

Tactical shift around Avdiivka

(ref. the above conversation, the West might provide useful aid in the form of jamming and direct electronic warfare resources to limit Russian success in this next phase.)

The Russians Couldn’t Take Avdiivka With Tanks. They Couldn’t Take It With Infantry. Now They’re Trying With Drones.

After two months, the Russian assault on Avdiivka appears to be petering out. That does not mean the Russians are done with Avdiivka, however. They're sending in drones.

www.forbes.com

 

[cannabineer]

I’m aware of that and I’ll believe they can‘t handle all 18 just yet but a couple? Also, it will probably be long after year’s end before the F16s will actually be delivered. Last but not least, if NL would have been faster with deciding and US faster with approving, the training would have begun earlier as well. Training center in Romania opened just last month.


Exactly…

I’m no tactician, but I see danger in feeding the fighters and their pilots piecemeal into the contested space. The best way to improve a fighter’s lifespan is to have several other fighters in the air with or near him. I wouldn’t expect Ukraine to risk such a flagship asset until they have enough of them that they can defend one another.

 

[printer]

I’m no tactician, but I see danger in feeding the fighters and their pilots piecemeal into the contested space. The best way to improve a fighter’s lifespan is to have several other fighters in the air with or near him. I wouldn’t expect Ukraine to risk such a flagship asset until they have enough of them that they can defend one another.

Nato doctrine has multiple fighters work together where Soviet era training has just two together.