War

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
The Russians continue to rack up loses of men and equipment daily. Dunno about Ukrainian loses, but the Russians are still attacking and doing it poorly. If Ukraine lost as much as Russia did in the last year, they wouldn't have any men or equipment left. As the quality of the Russian troops and equipment diminishes their losses increase.

 
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Fogdog

Well-Known Member
Let's see if the magats and Donald oppose taking Russian money away...

A cursory review of true ownership of real estate in Florida and New York would probably net a good trillion or so as well. Those guys didn't try very hard to hide where it came from. The State of New York might be disappointed to learn how little property Trump owns after the review is done.


Trump’s businesses are full of dirty Russian money. The scandal is that it’s legal.


What I mean is that for more than three decades, at least 13 people with known or alleged links to the Russian Mafia held the deeds to, lived in or ran criminal operations out of Trump Tower in New York or other Trump properties. I mean that many of them used Trump-branded real estate to launder vast amounts of money by buying multimillion-dollar condos through anonymous shell companies. I mean that the Bayrock Group, a real estate development company that was based in Trump Tower and had ties to the Kremlin, came up with a new business model to franchise Trump condos after he lost billions of dollars in his Atlantic City casino developments, and helped make him rich again.

Those transactions might have been legal before 2019 but the would the source of the funds might be subject to sanctions after 2022? Probably wouldn't be much help to Ukraine right away and is a pipe dream.
 
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DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
A cursory review of true ownership of real estate in Florida and New York would probably net a good trillion or so as well. Those guys didn't try very hard to hide where it came from. The State of New York might be disappointed to learn how little property Trump owns after the review is done.


Trump’s businesses are full of dirty Russian money. The scandal is that it’s legal.


What I mean is that for more than three decades, at least 13 people with known or alleged links to the Russian Mafia held the deeds to, lived in or ran criminal operations out of Trump Tower in New York or other Trump properties. I mean that many of them used Trump-branded real estate to launder vast amounts of money by buying multimillion-dollar condos through anonymous shell companies. I mean that the Bayrock Group, a real estate development company that was based in Trump Tower and had ties to the Kremlin, came up with a new business model to franchise Trump condos after he lost billions of dollars in his Atlantic City casino developments, and helped make him rich again.

Those transactions might have been legal before 2019 but the would the source of the funds might be subject to sanctions after 2022? Probably wouldn't be much help to Ukraine right away and is a pipe dream.
The judge in NY will dissolve Trump's companies that own a lot of those properties, and they forced him to reveal his secret equity partners. Dunno how much will be revealed when the NY judge brings the hammer down, but I expect a report of some kind from the overseer. I believe when they liquidate his company the properties will need to be sold.
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
Maybe they should consider going for the source, shut off the valve instead of dealing with the nozzle end.
I’d rather not be in a shooting war with Iran. Imagine what would happen to material aid to Ukraine if suddenly we needed it ourselves.

I wouldn’t put it past Vladolf to suggest just that to Khamenei and sweeten the deal with some nuclear guarantees.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Doomsday Clock at 90 seconds to midnight, down from 100 seconds, the closest it's ever been.

Scientists to deliver a warning about nuclear war with Doomsday Clock 2024 announcement (yahoo.com)
If Vlad wants to commit suicide, that much has become very clear since the war in Ukraine started. Meanwhile Xi fired (and probably executed) a bunch of generals from their rocket force, seems some of their missiles were filled with water instead of fuel. I suspect corruption was at its highest in the Russian nuclear forces, why not, if they were ever ordered to use them it would be game over for them anyway! I wouldn't want to chance it, but I think they don't either, considering the level of military corruption in Russia and China. We've all seen what corruption did for the Russians and it got everybody looking including China.

I'd wind that clock back a bit, there is war and instability, but not much of a threat of nuclear war unless someone does something very stupid, and even then, a general nuclear war is unlikely. The Russians could fuck with those reactors at the power station in Ukraine though.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
I’d rather not be in a shooting war with Iran. Imagine what would happen to material aid to Ukraine if suddenly we needed it ourselves.

I wouldn’t put it past Vladolf to suggest just that to Khamenei and sweeten the deal with some nuclear guarantees.
The US navy alone is the second largest airforce in the world, strike their ports and arms industry with missiles and drones, don't risk pilots, no need these days. If they just left them to their own devices the countries in the region who depend on the trade the most like Egypt might take a more active role. As the importance of oil diminishes over the next decade, so will the importance of the region to America, Europe depends on the sea routes for Asian trade, America's trade goes trans Pacific. It seems China should have an interest in this, it is their trade it is fucking up the most.
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
If Vlad wants to commit suicide, that much has become very clear since the war in Ukraine started. Meanwhile Xi fired (and probably executed) a bunch of generals from their rocket force, seems some of their missiles were filled with water instead of fuel. I suspect corruption was at its highest in the Russian nuclear forces, why not, if they were ever ordered to use them it would be game over for them anyway! I wouldn't want to chance it, but I think they don't either, considering the level of military corruption in Russia and China. We've all seen what corruption did for the Russians and it got everybody looking including China.

I'd wind that clock back a bit, there is war and instability, but not much of a threat of nuclear war unless someone does something very stupid, and even then, a general nuclear war is unlikely. The Russians could fuck with those reactors at the power station in Ukraine though.
To the bolded: this reminds me of the military fools in the Reagan era who spoke in terms of “limited nuclear war” and “surgical strikes”.

I regard the idea that a nuclear release won’t cascade to be at the very least unproven.

I agree with the clock being advanced ten seconds. Between Gaza and Houthis (and aid to the Russian war) Iran is drawing two nuclear powers (Israel is estimated to have at least 80 nuclear weapons of its own) closer to the sort of “existential threat” conditions that both sides state would justify their use.

Things aren’t going smoothly in China right now. Imagine if we decide to strike Iran, or degrade their proxies enough that they stage a nasty incident — and we get busy in the region.
Now imagine if the leaders of China, needing a win, decide that that is the moment to do something direct regarding Taiwan. Murphy’s quantum* and thermodynamic# laws both kick in.
That would bring us twenty seconds to midnight. (Nightmare thought: imagine if that man were still in place and decided to Sharpie a hurricane over Tehran.)

*Everything goes wrong all at once.

#Things get worse under pressure.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
To the bolded: this reminds me of the military fools in the Reagan era who spoke in terms of “limited nuclear war” and “surgical strikes”.

I regard the idea that a nuclear release won’t cascade to be at the very least unproven.

I agree with the clock being advanced ten seconds. Between Gaza and Houthis (and aid to the Russian war) Iran is drawing two nuclear powers (Israel is estimated to have at least 80 nuclear weapons of its own) closer to the sort of “existential threat” conditions that both sides state would justify their use.

Things aren’t going smoothly in China right now. Imagine if we decide to strike Iran, or degrade their proxies enough that they stage a nasty incident — and we get busy in the region.
Now imagine if the leaders of China, needing a win, decide that that is the moment to do something direct regarding Taiwan. Murphy’s quantum* and thermodynamic# laws both kick in.
That would bring us twenty seconds to midnight. (Nightmare thought: imagine if that man were still in place and decided to Sharpie a hurricane over Tehran.)

*Everything goes wrong all at once.

#Things get worse under pressure.
I guess it's a matter of opinion, but an old-fashioned nuclear war of mutual annihilation seems unlikely. Don't get me wrong anybody using a nuke anywhere is a bad idea and it might have unfortunate consequences for those who use them. Best to let the dictators die off of natural causes and hope for better the next time, if you can.
 
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