Climate in the 21st Century

Will Humankind see the 22nd Century?

  • Not a fucking chance

    Votes: 44 27.5%
  • Maybe. if we get our act together

    Votes: 42 26.3%
  • Yes, we will survive

    Votes: 74 46.3%

  • Total voters
    160

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Despite the title this is not a perovskite silicon tandem cell, but achieved over 33% efficiency, future silicon multi-layer perovskite tandem cells should do better. Increased solar panel efficiency and flexibility along with better batteries can lead to practical solar recharged cars for many parts of the world. This is a long way from the lab to the fab, but other companies are selling, or soon will be, tandem silicon perovskite panels and efficiencies are expected to be higher than for silicon alone with a wider spectrum of the sun's energy captured. The industry standard lifetime for residential solar is 25 years and any panels must meet that standard.

 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member

This Battery Claims It can Store Energy in RUST!

I get really excited about batteries, because well I believe we are in the decade of the battery. So this week, we're looking at the "rust" battery or the Iron-Air battery. This rechargeable battery promises to provide long lasting power, while requiring no Lithium, Cobalt, or Nickel! Just Iron and Air... but how does this battery truly work, and what chance does it have of reaching commercial viability? Like all batteries there are some serious pros and cons, so let's discuss all this and more this week on Two Bit da Vinci!
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
It might be a while from the lab to the fab, but they seem to think they can take it commercial. There is a lot of money being invested in battery technology and I'm sure experts from many companies are looking at this. It does show the potential of what can be done, aluminum-based batteries like this would be cheap to mass produce with low material costs and high energy density. Maybe in a few years they could be an answer for EVs and home storage, Aluminum has a theoretical energy density of over 8 kWh/kg.

Here is one thing that caught my eye about this battery, it works in the cold and for EVs in Canada that would be a good thing!
"Laboratory testing shows normal operation at 40 degrees below Fahrenheit and at 120 degrees Fahrenheit"

Competition for the future is fierce and no large company in the business can afford to overlook new innovations, the shear economics of something like this could put other battery makers out of business The automotive industry is dependent on battery tech, the best battery means more sales and licensing agreements worth billions. Money makes the world go round and there is a lot of money being thrown at battery R&D and this demonstrates the kinds of things they might throw some at. Better, cheaper batteries mean we get to a green future quicker.


Flow Aluminum technology

The UNM research team says lab testing has shown the aluminum-CO2 batteries can store and discharge twice as much energy, or power, as a lithium-ion one of the same weight and size.

That reflects the energy-storage capacity of the aluminum metal, plus the absence of the weighty minerals and mechanisms that lithium-ion batteries contain, Fetrow said.

The aluminum metal absorbs electricity when charging, and then, when combined with CO2 gas, the chemical reaction allows the electrons to flow out, or discharge. An aluminum derivative also provides an additional catalyst to speed the process, and a liquid electrolyte — called an “ionic liquid” — efficiently moves the ions and electrons around in the battery.

That electrochemical process allows Flow Aluminum batteries to store more energy and provide a powerful discharge of electricity. And, in the process, the batteries lose only a fraction of their energy storage and discharge capacity, basically on a par with the efficiency losses seen in lithium-ion batteries, Fetrow said.

Company CEO Chepucavage called that “unrestricted depth of discharge,” which makes the Flow Aluminum batteries more powerful than lithium-ion ones, and long-lasting as well.

“Unlike traditional batteries that experience degradation when deeply discharged, our batteries maintain their performance and longevity, allowing users to extract maximum energy from each cycle,” Chepucavage said. “This unique feature enhances the overall efficiency and cost-effectiveness of the battery system, ensuring optimal utilization of stored energy.”

Apart from high performance and long-lasting characteristics, the battery eliminates the use of rare Earth minerals, creating abundant supply chains while significantly lower manufacturing costs based on relatively inexpensive materials.

And it sidesteps the environmental issues connected to lithium-ion batteries. In fact, since aluminum is easily recycled, the company plans to rely largely on recycled materials in the manufacturing process.

“The battery is made of common things,” Fetrow said. “Aluminum is the third most-abundant material in the Earth’s crust, and it recycles very cleanly, creating a captive supply chain. The other parts of the battery are also common and much less environmentally damaging to get than the minerals used in lithium-ion batteries.”

In addition, Flow Aluminum technology wipes away fire danger, since the battery contains no flammable materials.

“We could take a blowtorch to the battery with no ignition,” Chepucavage said.

It also works in extreme temperatures. Laboratory testing shows normal operation at 40 degrees below Fahrenheit and at 120 degrees Fahrenheit, according to the company.

Then there’s the additional benefit of carbon capture, enabled by the battery’s ionic liquid electrolyte, which can absorb CO2 from the air.

That could allow Flow Aluminum to develop to two different battery options, including a “sealed” system with all materials enclosed inside, or an “open format” whereby the battery stores and discharges electricity while also pulling carbon directly from the air, Fetrow said. The open-air architecture could be used on grid-tied battery-storage systems, allowing a solar array or wind farm to charge the system up while it simultaneously absorbs CO2.
 
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DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
There could be breakthroughs in batteries and solar that will change the energy game completely and drive companies out of business, it's already beginning with Perovskite solar cells and tandem cells with higher efficiencies and more flexibility in application. The R&D in batteries and breakthroughs with researchers taking companies public has been phenomenal. The first generation of mass-produced batteries of a variety of types is beginning and the race for performance and price is on. Capitalism is good at somethings, and this is one of them, there are fortunes to be made and the competition is fierce, in the lab, the fab and the marketplace.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
A place like Texas is well suited to rooftop solar and home batteries, energy independence for the independence minded and freedom from ridiculously high-power bills that have been reported from the state. It will happen with the rise of the technology whether the state government paid for by the fossil fuel industry likes it or not. When people start using EVs and have a single source of energy, it will make more sense to make your own power if you are able.

 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
The main reason are batteries, too heavy, too expensive, not energy dense enough and have poor cold weather performance. Almost all current EVs are powered by traditional flammable Li-ion batteries, but new types should arrive soon with a steady improvement of their various chemistries. EV sales will improve when the EVs and batteries get better, lighter, smaller and more suited to electrification. No matter how good the batteries are, a monster 1/2-ton truck that does its best to imitate an 18-wheeler or a luxury SUV that gets a mile a kilowatt will always be a bitch to charge and expensive to fuel. When it comes to EVs, smaller is better for range and charging times, even at home overnight. Even so, one of these North American kilowatt pigs will benefit from batteries that weigh a quarter as much as current ones do and perform better in cold conditions.

 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Another area where better, cheaper batteries are needed, rooftop PV storage, to help balance the grid and reduce demand.

 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member

The Net Zero Myth. Why Reaching our Climate Goals is Virtually Impossible

Everyone is talking about Net Zero. But Net Zero what? What does this even mean? Is it a reasonable goal? How far are we on the way? And do we have any chance of reaching it? For this video, we have collected all facts and numbers that you need to join the discussion.
 

printer

Well-Known Member
So running a heat pump would cost more to heat a house as compared to natural gas where I live. Yes, I live in the black hole of Canada.

Heat pump popularity is increasing, but how well do they work on the Prairies?
Catherine Gibson hopes she and her husband can age in place in their south Regina home. That's one of the main reasons she installed an air-source heat pump this past summer. "I had been hearing … about heat pumps and how they were the thing of the future," said Gibson. "We had an old furnace and we had an even older air conditioner, so it seemed like a no-brainer." Gibson uses the electric-powered heat pump — along with a natural gas furnace she purchased in 2022 — to heat her home in the colder months. It also cools her home, like an air conditioner, in the summer. A heat pump cools a home by absorbing the heat inside and releasing it outside, but reverses that process in winter — extracting heat from air outside, even when the temperature is well below zero, and transferring it inside. Gibson says she noticed a drop in her power and gas bills with the new gas furnace, and she's hopeful they'll continue to drop now that her pump is carrying part of her heating load.

Simon Landsman, a salesman with Regina Plumbing and Heating, has also noticed the growing popularity in the pumps. He estimates he's sold about two dozen so far this year. "A lot of people want to go greener [and get] a little bit better savings on your energy bills," he said. "It's just clean energy." Landsman thinks their popularity will only increase, especially since the outside units are smaller than an air conditioner.

In a statement to CBC, the Saskatchewan government says it won't offer rebates through SaskPower and SaskEnergy for heat pumps because "they simply do not work as a primary heat source in the climate across the Prairie provinces."

The government of Canada — which offers up to $5,000 in rebates for pump installation and now up to $15,000 for those switching from heating oil — notes on its website on heat pumps that newer models can provide heating in temperatures as low as –15 C to –25 C. "Below this temperature, a supplemental system must be used to provide heating to the building," it says.

But Sarah Riddell, a policy researcher in clean heat at Efficiency Canada, says laboratory and real-world studies have found newer cold climate heat pump models can heat to around –30 C because of improvements in technology. Even if the temperature drops further, their backup resistance heating will kick in. "You'd still have a completely warm home that can heat to really any temperature that you'd ever see in Canada," said Riddell. There won't be an immediate strain on electrical grids from heat pumps, she said, because around 40 per cent of homes in Canada already use electrical heating through baseboards and boilers and heat pumps won't be installed all at once.

Martin Luymes, a vice-president with the Heating, Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Institute, agrees heat pumps are an effective replacement for any other source of heating. "To suggest that we cannot heat a home without natural gas or oil is false," said Luymes. "Really, every household in the country should be at least contemplating purchasing a heat pump." But in Alberta and Saskatchewan, Luymes said heat pumps may be a "less attractive" option partly because electricity in both provinces is generated from fossil fuels.

A 2022 Natural Resources Canada study — using data from 2020 — found greenhouse gas emissions would actually increase if a two-storey home built after 1980 in cities like Regina, Calgary and Edmonton switched from natural gas heating to a cold climate air-source heat pump.

(link will not play nice here, -$309 'savings' a year here to switch) - https://i.cbc.ca/1.7026489.1699737390!/fileImage/httpImage/image.JPG_gen/derivatives/original_1180/nrcan-utility-cost-heat-pumps.JPG

Despite this, Riddell points to a 2022 report from the International Energy Agency that shows heat pumps still reduce emissions by at least 20 per cent worldwide compared to gas and up to 80 per cent in countries with cleaner electricity. The Natural Resources report noted reductions in greenhouse gases are possible if Prairie homes switched to heat pumps from other electric heat sources (a reduction of up to 11.2 tonnes per household a year) and oil (2.7 to 12.2 tonnes a year). The report also notes yearly savings of over $3,000 on energy bills when switching to a heat pump from oil in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Cost was front of mind for Jake Dingman, who lives on an acreage near Saltcoats, Sask. He made the switch this fall from oil heating to a ground-source (or geothermal) heat pump — which uses heat from the sun stored in layers of the earth near the surface to warm a home. He was paying nearly $4,000 a year to heat with oil. "I looked at natural gas but it's about four miles to get it trenched in here, which was going to be $100,000 plus," said Dingman. "I just decided to go with the geothermal because I figured at least the price would be flat once I have it in." After paying $45,000 to have his pump installed — with help from a federal government loan — he believes it will cost him $100 to $200 per month on his electricity bill.

Savings with a heat pump compared to a natural gas furnace are not high on the Prairies, since a unit of energy for gas is cheaper compared to electricity, according to the Natural Resources report. "West of Quebec, the estimated costs of operating heat pumps and gas furnaces are approximately equal," the report says.

(link will not play nice here, (5.2 tons/year GHG savings as province has mostly hydroelectric power) - https://i.cbc.ca/1.7026485.1699736840!/fileImage/httpImage/image.JPG_gen/derivatives/original_1180/nrcan-ghg-heat-pumps.JPG

A cold-climate heat pump would save homeowners in most regions $50 to 150 per year compared to gas heating, it says.
A Canadian Climate Institute report released earlier this year found a heat pump with a gas backup was about $100 cheaper per year than gas heating alone for single homes and townhouses in Edmonton built around 1980. Gas was still the cheapest heating option for a 20-unit building built around the same time.

The same report found upfront costs for air-source heat pumps across the country range from $5,000 to $19,000, while an air conditioning unit is around $5,000. The cost for a natural gas furnace is between $4,000 and $6,500, according to a survey of customers on FurnacePrices.ca.
 
Last edited:

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
So running a heat pump would cost more to heat a house as compared to natural gas where I live. Yes, I live in the black hole of Canada.

Heat pump popularity is increasing, but how well do they work on the Prairies?
Catherine Gibson hopes she and her husband can age in place in their south Regina home. That's one of the main reasons she installed an air-source heat pump this past summer. "I had been hearing … about heat pumps and how they were the thing of the future," said Gibson. "We had an old furnace and we had an even older air conditioner, so it seemed like a no-brainer." Gibson uses the electric-powered heat pump — along with a natural gas furnace she purchased in 2022 — to heat her home in the colder months. It also cools her home, like an air conditioner, in the summer. A heat pump cools a home by absorbing the heat inside and releasing it outside, but reverses that process in winter — extracting heat from air outside, even when the temperature is well below zero, and transferring it inside. Gibson says she noticed a drop in her power and gas bills with the new gas furnace, and she's hopeful they'll continue to drop now that her pump is carrying part of her heating load.

Simon Landsman, a salesman with Regina Plumbing and Heating, has also noticed the growing popularity in the pumps. He estimates he's sold about two dozen so far this year. "A lot of people want to go greener [and get] a little bit better savings on your energy bills," he said. "It's just clean energy." Landsman thinks their popularity will only increase, especially since the outside units are smaller than an air conditioner.

In a statement to CBC, the Saskatchewan government says it won't offer rebates through SaskPower and SaskEnergy for heat pumps because "they simply do not work as a primary heat source in the climate across the Prairie provinces."

The government of Canada — which offers up to $5,000 in rebates for pump installation and now up to $15,000 for those switching from heating oil — notes on its website on heat pumps that newer models can provide heating in temperatures as low as –15 C to –25 C. "Below this temperature, a supplemental system must be used to provide heating to the building," it says.

But Sarah Riddell, a policy researcher in clean heat at Efficiency Canada, says laboratory and real-world studies have found newer cold climate heat pump models can heat to around –30 C because of improvements in technology. Even if the temperature drops further, their backup resistance heating will kick in. "You'd still have a completely warm home that can heat to really any temperature that you'd ever see in Canada," said Riddell. There won't be an immediate strain on electrical grids from heat pumps, she said, because around 40 per cent of homes in Canada already use electrical heating through baseboards and boilers and heat pumps won't be installed all at once.

Martin Luymes, a vice-president with the Heating, Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Institute, agrees heat pumps are an effective replacement for any other source of heating. "To suggest that we cannot heat a home without natural gas or oil is false," said Luymes. "Really, every household in the country should be at least contemplating purchasing a heat pump." But in Alberta and Saskatchewan, Luymes said heat pumps may be a "less attractive" option partly because electricity in both provinces is generated from fossil fuels.

A 2022 Natural Resources Canada study — using data from 2020 — found greenhouse gas emissions would actually increase if a two-storey home built after 1980 in cities like Regina, Calgary and Edmonton switched from natural gas heating to a cold climate air-source heat pump.

(link will not play nice here, -$309 'savings' a year here to switch) - https://i.cbc.ca/1.7026489.1699737390!/fileImage/httpImage/image.JPG_gen/derivatives/original_1180/nrcan-utility-cost-heat-pumps.JPG

Despite this, Riddell points to a 2022 report from the International Energy Agency that shows heat pumps still reduce emissions by at least 20 per cent worldwide compared to gas and up to 80 per cent in countries with cleaner electricity. The Natural Resources report noted reductions in greenhouse gases are possible if Prairie homes switched to heat pumps from other electric heat sources (a reduction of up to 11.2 tonnes per household a year) and oil (2.7 to 12.2 tonnes a year). The report also notes yearly savings of over $3,000 on energy bills when switching to a heat pump from oil in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Cost was front of mind for Jake Dingman, who lives on an acreage near Saltcoats, Sask. He made the switch this fall from oil heating to a ground-source (or geothermal) heat pump — which uses heat from the sun stored in layers of the earth near the surface to warm a home. He was paying nearly $4,000 a year to heat with oil. "I looked at natural gas but it's about four miles to get it trenched in here, which was going to be $100,000 plus," said Dingman. "I just decided to go with the geothermal because I figured at least the price would be flat once I have it in." After paying $45,000 to have his pump installed — with help from a federal government loan — he believes it will cost him $100 to $200 per month on his electricity bill.

Savings with a heat pump compared to a natural gas furnace are not high on the Prairies, since a unit of energy for gas is cheaper compared to electricity, according to the Natural Resources report. "West of Quebec, the estimated costs of operating heat pumps and gas furnaces are approximately equal," the report says.

(link will not play nice here, (5.2 tons/year GHG savings as province has mostly hydroelectric power) - https://i.cbc.ca/1.7026485.1699736840!/fileImage/httpImage/image.JPG_gen/derivatives/original_1180/nrcan-ghg-heat-pumps.JPG

A cold-climate heat pump would save homeowners in most regions $50 to 150 per year compared to gas heating, it says.
A Canadian Climate Institute report released earlier this year found a heat pump with a gas backup was about $100 cheaper per year than gas heating alone for single homes and townhouses in Edmonton built around 1980. Gas was still the cheapest heating option for a 20-unit building built around the same time.

The same report found upfront costs for air-source heat pumps across the country range from $5,000 to $19,000, while an air conditioning unit is around $5,000. The cost for a natural gas furnace is between $4,000 and $6,500, according to a survey of customers on FurnacePrices.ca.
One thing about a heat pump supplementing your heating is you can power it with solar by putting PV panels on the south side of the house that would work best in the 3 worst months of the winter. Mounting them vertically would only put you off by 20 degrees from a right angle on the winter solstice. Heat with gas, just not so much, a few other panels on the roof would take care of most of the year. It is a lot cheaper to supplement your power to reduce your bill than to try to go off grid, though you can for almost 3/4 of the year in Canada. Adding in transportation costs with an EV makes it even more feasible and the EV can store emergency power for the house too. Costs for solar and batteries continue to drop and as they do it will become worthwhile for more people.
 

printer

Well-Known Member
One thing about a heat pump supplementing your heating is you can power it with solar by putting PV panels on the south side of the house that would work best in the 3 worst months of the winter. Mounting them vertically would only put you off by 20 degrees from a right angle on the winter solstice. Heat with gas, just not so much, a few other panels on the roof would take care of most of the year. It is a lot cheaper to supplement your power to reduce your bill than to try to go off grid, though you can for almost 3/4 of the year in Canada. Adding in transportation costs with an EV makes it even more feasible and the EV can store emergency power for the house too. Costs for solar and batteries continue to drop and as they do it will become worthwhile for more people.
The same reasons a heat pump is questionable here in winter is the same for solar. Winter output is a fraction of summer irradiation. The output reduces to about a third of summer's output. So a 100 kW system will be putting out 30-40% of rated capacity in winter. Mounting it vertical looses even more but who wants to go out and brush the snow off of the panels?
 

OldMedUser

Well-Known Member
The same reasons a heat pump is questionable here in winter is the same for solar. Winter output is a fraction of summer irradiation. The output reduces to about a third of summer's output. So a 100 kW system will be putting out 30-40% of rated capacity in winter. Mounting it vertical looses even more but who wants to go out and brush the snow off of the panels?
This far north, 56°, vertically mounted panels would get a more direct hit from the sun than they would in the summer when it is almost directly overhead. With the reduced solar output in the winter the panel's electrical output would likely be close to the same for both seasons.

I sure wish we had had the same solar tech and subsidies available now when I bought this place 20 years ago. I have a south-facing side of the shop roof that's about 45° and around 1000sq' that would be perfect for panels.

I can't see the investment in panels now paying off in my remaining time here at my age. I'm hoping to get out of here and out to the coast sooner than later. There's also the possibility that they may go ahead with the highway twinning past my place in the very near future and my house will be under the two new lanes when it happens. They had an info meeting about 6 years ago my wife attended and we'll be gonzo.

Our whole place is heated with gas so won't be getting a heat pump here. The furnace is 33 years old and still working fine so I won't be upgrading it with a higher efficiency rated one any time soon either.

Cool today but looking at +8C over the weekend again.

:peace:
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
The same reasons a heat pump is questionable here in winter is the same for solar. Winter output is a fraction of summer irradiation. The output reduces to about a third of summer's output. So a 100 kW system will be putting out 30-40% of rated capacity in winter. Mounting it vertical looses even more but who wants to go out and brush the snow off of the panels?
Just an idea to supplement the power for the heat pump in the dead of winter. Having lived in the Peg it is a hard place to get through the winter with a heat pump and an EV. The best most folks can do is cut their average annual energy consumption, still it is at the same latitude as a lot of places in Northern Europe, but colder in winter. Also, in a few years solar panels will be cheap as dirt when perovskites start competing.
 
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