Climate in the 21st Century

Will Humankind see the 22nd Century?

  • Not a fucking chance

    Votes: 44 28.0%

  • Maybe. if we get our act together

    Votes: 41 26.1%

  • Yes, we will survive

    Votes: 72 45.9%
  • Total voters
    157
Sativied

Sativied

Well-Known Member
September was second hottest september since 1901 in NL, October the wettest October since measuring started in 1906. Still raining… and expectation is it won’t rain for 2 days during the next 2 weeks, well on our way to break wettest year record. Only upside is that it doesn’t get as cold as usual, especially at night.
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Panel prices continue to drop and are expected to drop even more with the introduction of perovskites and battery prices are dropping too with mass production. Solar is the cheapest form of energy generation and most of the global population lives in latitudes where it would be cheap, and the seasonal variations are at a minimum. Storage appears to be the only issue with renewables, but solar seems to beat wind by a long shot in terms of cost per watt, but the wind blows at night too and more in winter.

www.independent.co.uk

Fossil fuels ‘becoming obsolete’ as solar panel prices plummet

Solar costs down nearly 90 per cent over last decade in huge boost for renewable energy
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk

“Some calculations even suggest that the world’s entire energy consumption in 2050 could be completely and cost-effectively covered by solar technology and other renewables,” said Felix Creutzig, who led the research.

“This is an extremely optimistic scenario – but it illustrates that the future is open. Climate science, which provides policymakers with guidance in its scenario models, must reflect technical progress as closely as possible.”

The publication of the research follows recent analysis that showed the cost of batteries fell by nearly 10 per cent last month.

Energy analytics firm Benchmark Mineral Intelligence said the drop below $100/ kilowatthour (kWh) in August took batteries past a “tipping point” that puts electric vehicles (EVs) on a price parity with fossil fuel-burning vehicles.

As well as accelerating the transition to EVs, the fall in battery prices is also a big boost for renewable energy technologies like solar and wind installations, as they use batteries to store excess energy during periods of overproduction.

The falling costs for renewable technologies has been attributed to scientific breakthroughs that make them more efficient, as well as decreasing raw material costs.
 
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DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
We should see more conventional looking solar roofs in the coming years as PV is built into roofing shingles and tiles, I doubt in 10 years we will see many regular solar panel installations on rooftops.

electrek.co

GAF Energy’s new Texas factory is about to make a lot of nailable solar shingles

GAF Energy’s new nailable solar shingle factory in Texas is about to make the company the world’s largest solar roofing producer.
electrek.co electrek.co
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
I had not realized that heat pumps were so cheap and I'm thinking about something like this to supplement my oil heating. It would be kind of like having a woodstove in the house and would keep the furnace from kicking in. I dunno about government rebates and it doesn't look like it is included in the price. It says it uses about 900 watts of power. A couple of solar panels could power the thing during the day and cut heating costs even further.

I'm wondering how much it would cost to have someone install it. Around here the thing could easily heat the house for 6 months of the year, or perhaps the whole winter. At CAD: $1,499.99 it looks like it could pay for itself pretty quickly if you are burning a couple of thousand dollars a winter for oil heating. The only thing stopping me is I'm not sure how much longer I'll be in this house, since I'm getting older, but it does look worth the money and effort for someone on the east coast where it is currently 7 degrees C and who lives in a small house.

senville.ca

12000 BTU Mini Split Air Conditioner - Heat Pump - SENA/12HF

Find a selection of ductless mini split air conditioners with heat pumps. We offer the best split air conditioner models and ductless air conditioners in Canada.
senville.ca senville.ca
 
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DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member

Why Oil Giants Shell And BP Are Investing In U.S. Farmland

Through partnerships with solar energy developers, oil giants BP and Shell are investing in an emerging industry called agrivoltaics, which combines solar energy generation with agricultural activities such as sheep grazing, beekeeping and crop production. This multi-use land management strategy could help alleviate the tension between farmers and solar developers, two groups that often find themselves at odds when it comes to matters of land use.
 
canndo

canndo

Well-Known Member
topcat said:
Mother Earth is removing it's cancer organically. That is us. The supervolcano known as Yellowstone will erupt, as well as others around the world, blocking the sun for years, sending the planet into another ice age. A few humans will survive, the dust will settle, the sun will shine and history begins anew.

It's just my feeling. Nothing to cite and no proof.
Click to expand...
If we throw the earth into an unchecked warming trend it may take some 50 million years for the planet to readjust to the new paradigm. Of course mankind won't know nor care but it is something for us to be ever so proud of.

We managed to transform the earth for the second time in 4 billion years.

Pretty spiffy.
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
The planet and even our global technological society will survive global warming, but our coastlines and coastal cities won't. Our only hope of stabilizing things is to slow down and stop emitting carbon ASAP and reduce methane emissions as much as we can, though methane is worse for greenhouse effects, it doesn't hang around like CO2 does. If we can go green for most things like transport, steel and concrete production, then we can slow things down enough so our increasing technological power can address it over time. Technologies like carbon capture or space borne geoengineering as a temporary expedient could be used to mitigate the effects until we can bring things back into balance. Technology got us into this mess, and it is the only way out of it while maintaining a global civilization and avoiding environmental and humanitarian catastrophe.

Everybody going "back to the land" won't help or work, except for a few to survive. Individual responsibility helps, but many don't give a fuck and never will, so government action and incentives are required too. The biggest impact is made by the profit motive, the economics of the situation and solar at least has gotten a lot cheaper than coal for power generation for instance. It has gotten so cheap, even domestic grid users are making their own. It is making economic sense from industry and utilities down to homeowners and local microgrids, capitalism and competition can do the rest very quickly. For solar to really take off however we need cheap batteries too, and they are on the way with price competition in that market as fierce as in the solar market.

globalnews.ca

Earth facing dire sea level rise — up to 20m — even if climate goals met - National | Globalnews.ca

Time is running out to prevent sea levels from rising to dangerous levels, which could displace hundreds of millions of people living in coastal areas, a report warns.
globalnews.ca globalnews.ca
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Those who live in the tropics and subtropics should feel the impact first and cost the least in solar capacity and storage requirements. Most of south and central America, Africa, India and Australia, as well as populus countries in southeast Asia, including China have most of the world's population living in these areas where solar and a bit of storage can make a big difference. If you have cheap batteries and solar panels with a regular photoperiod and a warm or moderate climate, why would you build a coal or oil power plant moving forward. If your tropical country imported oil, it might be a good idea to get off it and save a lot of bucks every year. It might also be a good idea for rich counties to help finance and build such systems, maybe they could use it to offset carbon penalties or something. There are probably a hundred or so small countries in the tropics or subtropics that might qualify for this kind of program in a few years, when cheaper batteries and more microgrid technology develop further.

finance.yahoo.com

Experts predict one source of energy will dominate the power grid by 2050: ‘We are still seeing very rapid innovation’

It’s good news for a planet under a heat lamp.
finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Industry is feeling the heat too... Both Steel and cement can be made using new economical green technologies that don't need carbon capture or most of it. Transportation, domestic usage, steel and cement manufacture account for most of our carbon emissions. Many of the future transportation and domestic energy issues are being solved and solutions are being deployed, there are economical paths forward.

oilprice.com

Government Pressure Mounts for Industrial Decarbonization | OilPrice.com

Governments worldwide are enforcing stricter regulations and offering incentives to drive the decarbonization of heavy industry.
oilprice.com oilprice.com

  • The U.S. EPA is set to introduce stricter clean air standards, impacting heavy industries with older, less efficient facilities.
  • Industries heavily reliant on fossil fuels are considering expensive Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies to reduce their carbon footprint.
  • The International Renewable Energy Agency emphasizes the need for technological innovation to make the decarbonization of challenging sectors more feasible and cost-effective.
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
I've definitely noticed the climate change up here in NS at 46 north, fall is much longer and sometimes we don't see the first serious snow until Christmas. The winters are not as cold or long here anymore and while the maples and some trees have lost most of their leaves, some species are still green and the grass is still green and growing, we've had a few frosts, but not too much and some flowering plants are still budding. Winter is now from January to March, but by March it is getting warmer, it often snows and then disappears after a few days of warm weather or some rain. Right now, it is 13degrees C outside with rain, on November 18 th. Temps are often just above 0C in the 40%F range during the day. Quite a change from when I was a kid, the harbor would be frozen over all winter and so would the nearby lake, winter came in November and stayed until April.

www.salon.com

Thanks to climate change, autumn will never be the same

Fall weather is drastically changing thanks to global warming. Fixing it will require us to stabilize emissions
www.salon.com www.salon.com
 
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Ozumoz66

Ozumoz66

Well-Known Member
DIY-HP-LED said:
I've definitely noticed the climate change up here in NS at 46% north, fall is much longer and sometimes we don't see the first serious snow until Christmas. The winters are not as cold or long here anymore and while the maples and some trees have lost most of their leaves, some species are still green and the grass is still green and growing, we've had a few frosts, but not too much and some flowering plants are still budding. Winter is now from January to March, but by March it is getting warmer, it often snows and then disappears after a few days of warm weather or some rain. Right now, it is 13degrees C outside with rain, on November 18 th. Temps are often just above 0C in the 40%F range during the day. Quite a change from when I was a kid, the harbor would be frozen over all winter and so would the nearby lake, winter came in November and stayed until April.

www.salon.com

Thanks to climate change, autumn will never be the same

Fall weather is drastically changing thanks to global warming. Fixing it will require us to stabilize emissions
www.salon.com www.salon.com
Click to expand...
There were several firsts this year. Mowing the lawn after Remembrance Day was a first. We had lots of noseeums and fish flies last week. Ants are still active, even saw a grasshopper today. Finally cut down the remaining plants. We'd have been tobogganing by now in the 70s.
 
canndo

canndo

Well-Known Member
DIY-HP-LED said:
The planet and even our global technological society will survive global warming, but our coastlines and coastal cities won't. Our only hope of stabilizing things is to slow down and stop emitting carbon ASAP and reduce methane emissions as much as we can, though methane is worse for greenhouse effects, it doesn't hang around like CO2 does. If we can go green for most things like transport, steel and concrete production, then we can slow things down enough so our increasing technological power can address it over time. Technologies like carbon capture or space borne geoengineering as a temporary expedient could be used to mitigate the effects until we can bring things back into balance. Technology got us into this mess, and it is the only way out of it while maintaining a global civilization and avoiding environmental and humanitarian catastrophe.

Everybody going "back to the land" won't help or work, except for a few to survive. Individual responsibility helps, but many don't give a fuck and never will, so government action and incentives are required too. The biggest impact is made by the profit motive, the economics of the situation and solar at least has gotten a lot cheaper than coal for power generation for instance. It has gotten so cheap, even domestic grid users are making their own. It is making economic sense from industry and utilities down to homeowners and local microgrids, capitalism and competition can do the rest very quickly. For solar to really take off however we need cheap batteries too, and they are on the way with price competition in that market as fierce as in the solar market.

globalnews.ca

Earth facing dire sea level rise — up to 20m — even if climate goals met - National | Globalnews.ca

Time is running out to prevent sea levels from rising to dangerous levels, which could displace hundreds of millions of people living in coastal areas, a report warns.
globalnews.ca globalnews.ca
Click to expand...

At what point will our newly adjusted technological global society begin to fail at agriculture? Heat alone will begin to kill unprotected people in this decade. Unmitigated methane release is NOT mitigatable by any known method. Uncontrolled release from melting permafrost and deep sea methane deposits regardless of the longevity of the gas in the atmosphere will spiral.

At what point will society begin to collapse and how will people cope with heat when that collapse occurs and artificial cooling is no longer sustainable?
Sure, we can as a race survive fires, inundation and extreme weather events but at the core is still unsurvivable heat and the failure of crops.

Humans begin to die at a wet bulb temperature of 95 f. This can equate to a 50 humidity temperature of 109.
109 is no longer a rarity in many locations.

It is true that humans tend to acclimatize to heat in as little as six weeks but how far can this acclimatization extend? How can the modern countries have their population adapt when they spend a portion but not all of their time in air conditioned spaces?

It is true that cereal crops can be preserved by moving north and south but now, again, we are disrupting geopolitical situations.
 
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DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
canndo said:
At what point will our newly adjusted technological global society begin to fail at agriculture? Heat alone will begin to kill unprotected people in this decade. Unmitigated methane release is NOT mitigatable by any known method. Uncontrolled release from melting permafrost and deep sea methane deposits regardless of the longevity of the gas in the atmosphere will spiral.

At what point will society begin to collapse and how will people cope with heat when that collapse occurs and artificial cooling is no longer sustainable?
Sure, we can as a race survive fires, inundation and extreme weather events but at the core is still unsurvivable heat and the failure of crops.

Humans begin to die at a wet bulb temperature of 95 f. This can equate to a 50 humidity temperature of 109.
109 is no longer a rarity in many locations.

It is true that humans tend to acclimatize to heat in as little as six weeks but how far can this acclimatization extend? How can the modern countries have their population adapt when they spend a portion but not all of their time in air conditioned spaces?

It is true that cereal crops can be preserved by moving north and south but now, again, we are disrupting geopolitical situations.
Click to expand...
We don't have any choice but to try and mitigate carbon, if we don't everything will happen faster, we will adapt technologically, faster than biologically. I don't see any other solutions, sure living greener is great, but our society as a whole must change the way it gets and uses energy and does certain industrial processes like steel and cement. We might be able to adapt with geoengineering, in space, reflecting away a portion of the sus's heat or by other means not thought of yet, but the more time we allow for the tech to evolve, the better our chances.

I think it is starting with the way we power our homes and light transportation and then trucks and trains etc. We will probably hit tipping points, but again, what are we to do, except not make the problem any worse and capture carbon, if it is worth doing.
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
For a small fraction 7 trillion bucks we could solar power every country in the tropics and subtropics with panels batteries and even solar powered EVs, probably 70 to 80% or the global population. Shit we could convert most industrialized countries to renewables and give industry grants to go green too! 7 trillion bucks buys a lot of things, a billion goes a long way in panels and batteries today and will go further in the near future, it is so much money the current industry could only absorb a fraction of it each year.

www.statista.com

Infographic: Fossil Fuel Subsidies on the Rise

This chart shows the volume of global fossil fuel subsidies from 2015 to 2022.
www.statista.com www.statista.com

According to calculations by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), seven trillion U.S. dollars were spent on direct and indirect subsidies for fossil fuels in 2022. The war in Ukraine and the resulting rise in energy prices are partly responsible for the significant increase in the previous year.

But even before that, the trend was already upwards, as this infographic illustrates. Subsidies are also likely to increase in the future. According to analysts, the reason for this is the economic growth of the Global South and the resulting increase in the consumption of coal, oil and gas.

Government support for fossil fuels is equivalent to just over seven percent of the planet's economic output. A direct comparison with another important government budget item, for example, shows how enormous this sum is. Education spending by all countries combined accounts for 4.3 percent of global gross domestic product.

Countering fossil fuel subsidies, according to the IMF, would not only offer a chance to put humanity back on track to meet its climate goals, but could also prevent 1.6 million premature deaths per year and increase government revenues by $4.4 trillion.
 
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