Maine Gov unleashes the LAW....well a draft...

Budley Doright

Budley Doright

Well-Known Member
Fogdog said:
A single field in Oregon could supply the entire demand for the US. Two fields could crash the market.

I don't get it. The barrier to entry for competition isn't enough to justify the high valuation.
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Your right, it’s not. And the valuation is way out of whack. I’m not so sure about the 2 fields covering demand but the big deal here is greenhouses with lots coming online now. I do see this as a bubble with a few winners and a lot of losers, when it happens is the poker game.
 
Fogdog

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
Budley Doright said:
Your right, it’s not. And the valuation is way out of whack. I’m not so sure about the 2 fields covering demand but the big deal here is greenhouses with lots coming online now. I do see this as a bubble with a few winners and a lot of losers, when it happens is the poker game.
Click to expand...
Totally back of the envelope and I'm happy if anybody comes back with better that shows me wrong:

An acre has 43,000 square feet. If each plant is allocated 6 square feet and only half the acre is filled out to leave room for tending, that would make:

43500 x 0.5 x (1/6) = 3500 plants per acre

My home grow yielded 2 pounds per plant of trimmed cured bud. (Side note: that's about 60 years of smoke for my lightweight ass.)

3500 x 2 = 7,000 pounds per acre

Estimates of the value of cannabis is set at $55 billion, What price per ounce is that? IDK but let's say its a hundred bucks or 5.5 billion ounces or 343 million pounds (that seems high but whatever).

343 million pounds x (1/7000) = 49,000 acres

In Oregon, 16 million acres are under production, 34000 farmers, mean farm size is about 500 acres.

49,000 acres x(1/500) = 98 average sized farms.

So, OK, 100 average sized farms or 10 really large ones. It's not a lot. Which is why I wonder how they get at that valuation. The only thing I can think of is they expect to use laws to put a barrier to competition. History hasn't been kind to that kind of control.

I don't really know anything and would be happy to be trounced by somebody who does but that's what I get when I scratch on the back of an envelope.
 
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Budley Doright

Budley Doright

Well-Known Member
Well there you go lol. Not gonna try and trounce that math lol. I do know that when the crew did large numbers we were getting an average of 1/4lb per plant but certainly not an industrial operation but we did one that had 1500 give or take, we were growing blueberry pretty much exclusively that was not a high yield plant but damn good. As much as we tried the finished product quantity was always pretty much the same :(, that was also 30 some odd years ago lol. Again your right about the valuation, same as my Shopify holdings lol.
 
Rob Roy

Rob Roy

Well-Known Member
Fogdog said:
A single field in Oregon could supply the entire demand for the US. Two fields could crash the market.

I don't get it. The barrier to entry for competition isn't enough to justify the high valuation.
Click to expand...


Those would be two huuuuge fields.

Food security and "weed security" makes sense if it's decentralized though from my perspective.

While centralization does offer some positive economies of scale possibilities, it comes linked to prohibition if the centralization is an edict rather than a natural free market occurrence. Prohibition needs to go away completely.

Not even counting the laughable Federal schedule one status, EVERY state legalization so far is really not a "legalization bill" in the freedom sense. Every state legalization law includes prohibition language disguised as regulations on plant numbers, commerce etc.. Every state legalization law is designed to create protected markets and grow government, both bad things

Protected markets are bad for people, because they legally criminalize behavior that isn't really criminal. Mala Prohibita vs Mala En Se.
 
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