DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
I noticed but wanted to insult the bastard!
Pandemic 2020
- Thread starter Jimdamick
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DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
I thought he was Russian for a minute, but they aren't that stupid, then I notice the lure.
Queen2Green
Well-Known Member
I seen your reply a bit back and thought it was in Russian, I guess thats why lol. I was headed to bed and seen this pop up at the top so thought I'd take a peek.. Looks like he has left. Lol. I don't get pissy often, but dang really. People are throwing me with their random crazy thoughts - especially when they have no idea what they are saying, which he quite obviously did not.
Fogdog
Well-Known Member
Welcome to the RIU politics forum, where "a fact doesn't have to be true to be believed."
Five of diamonds
Member
I never said we should do nothing. I never said not to wear masks. I wear a mask. I said that most people I see DO NOT wear masks. I said most people dont seem to give a fuck, at least where I live. You see, you gave a good response. I respect you a lot more than those other two who didn't really have much to say. About the numbers. If anything we can logically ASSUME that the mortality rate is actually lower than what we have seen due to the fact the majority of asymptomatic people would probably not be tested. And according to what I thought were facts, those numbers (asymptomatic) are around 40%. Do you see where i am coming from here? I never said do nothing. I never said go back to work. I said its not as bad as it would seem and I also didn't say it wasn't going to get worse. I said that is not known. I am NOT an American and I agree they fucked the pooch on this. Lots did but they fucked that pooch a little harder. They should have shut everything down and closed borders when the very first case arrived in their country. Then it would be over by now or at least much easier to manage. BUT now, with the situation they are in, do you really think shutting it down will stop it? Maybe, but it will cost them heavily. Its no longer a viable option to close up shop in a certain city, certain area. Its huge areas and most cities. And to truly stop it it WOULD take draconian measures. Do you want that? What would that look like in reality? Because you damn well know millions of people out there would not follow the rules or listen. And the virus will stick around and come back again and again. Doesn't letting it run its course have some reason to it? Herd imunity? I dont think its as easy as we all wish and if there is one thing I am certain about, it's that it's no where near over.
Its going to draw out like a blade.
Kassiopeija
Well-Known Member
indeed, and that's only calculated if every person only becomes 1 time elligible to have that virus, and from then on, be immune.... but what if the virus mutates, comes back in another form, and you can get sick for a second/third.... time (like the flue) because this is what Corona/RNA-viruses are actually famous for... that could shatter the whole concept of herd immunity
Five of diamonds
Member
Honestly its not that, I just love actual fishing.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
I was doing a little research and was curious about such creatures and ya go from general to specific. Looks like a flavor of antisocial personality disorder. I mean this guy, there's normal trolling everybody does, but these folks aren't normal, even the trigger the libs types, haven't seen to many lately cause they end up triggered themselves, Clorox spoiled it for them.I noticed but wanted to insult the bastard!
Troll (slang) - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
"According to Tom Postmes, a professor of social and organisational psychology at the universities of Exeter, England, and Groningen, The Netherlands, and the author of Individuality and the Group, who has studied online behavior for 20 years, "Trolls aspire to violence, to the level of trouble they can cause in an environment. They want it to kick off. They want to promote antipathetic emotions of disgust and outrage, which morbidly gives them a sense of pleasure."[36] Someone who brings something off topic into the conversation in order to make that person mad is trolling.[40]"
Kassiopeija
Well-Known Member
that would be a good general exercise for if a more sophisticated virus - a potential biological weapon - hits the US.
Five of diamonds
Member
Who cares what we are calculating? Do you think that its immoral to calculate such things? Also not everyone has the same viewpoint on value (of life).
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
He's back, Hint, save the effort, just go back and copy paste the same arguments that were used to beat on abandon, why reinvent the wheel. Nite.
Five of diamonds
Member
I was talking about known statistics of the virus. The collateral damage will be massive. But so will the collateral damage from flattening the curve won't it? That's even if the Americans can manage that task. Is asking questions/talking inherently evil or something? I simply stated numbers and my opinion about them.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Why don't you consult the experts? There are threads on this topic full of arguments that can bury you, we watched the data as it came in, there were a ton of expert resources, articles and research papers posted. People here were following this since january, it is a well covered topic, a hunt through the threads is more effort than I'll bother with. We have this epidemic battled back to the point where it is safe to go about, but we are issuing mask orders, even if there are no cases in the province and we contact trace. Monoclonal antibody therapies and convalescent plasma are worth the wait, it was criminal negligence and mismanagement that are causing major issues in the US now. Trump is a failure. Masks cut the R0 rate tremendously and the methods of contagion are better understood, NPIs (Non Pharmaceutical Interventions) supportive and antiviral treatments that confirm limited immunity will be the approach until a vaccine is found to cure or even significantly attenuate the virus.
We can do economic activity, just not mass events, bars and restaurants until extensive testing, contact tracing and case isolation are enacted, but after locking down to reduce the rate of infection in the community. That's what the experts say and that's who everybody who wants to live, listens to.
If you are wondering about the hostility, you appear to be promoting a dangerous public health narrative, America is being ravaged by covid, nowhere else except Brazil and Russia, all of America's peers have contained it and can go back to normal, more or less. There is division in America over masks and NPIs, there are many morons and the entire issue has become politicised by a sizable group of morons who are enthralled to Trump.
BTW where are you from? It would be helpful to others to know this information and it is general in nature and most likely will be publicly corrected by the admin if you should lie about it, you don't have a reason to lie or to conceal it. Many suspect Russian trolls, I thought you were one myself, but most are just the American variety, we do get those who are not too familiar with America, but your english is good American in fact and does not appear to be British. I'm from Canada, where are you from, purgatory might mean your Catholic, but it is not a country.
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Five of diamonds
Member
Your claiming those are not the real numbers? Sure are they 100%, no. But are these not the numbers we have to work with? Are these not the numbers that we DO know, not just what we suspect?
How is my ideology fucked? Because I don't find a mortality rate for healthy human beings below 1% scary? Not everyone is afraid. Not everyone views things the same. Does that make them wrong? If so why are you so sure you are right? I also never advocated not wearing a mask, or anti vaccine shit. I didnt say it so dont pretend I did.
Queen2Green
Well-Known Member
No you stated numbers and on another post said they were facts. They aren't. Your numbers are way off base and I only glanced. 1-1.5% americans infected? You mean X 9? I think you're underestimating the contagiousness of this virus and how many people it truly will effect if left to go unchecked. At this point the collateral damage economically is going to be massive no matter what we do, there's no logical reason to say it's ok for people to die based on numbers. If you look around, states are breaking case numbers daily. The virus is rapidly spreading because the country opened to soon and did not take precautions. Had we done things properly, the economic damage would have been alot less. You're saying people should pay with their lives because our leaders were idiots and fucked everything about this pandemic response up? Thats why I say you don't know what you're talking about.
Ok, I went back a ways. I see. I wouldn't say everything about science has to be universally agreed upon (obviously..it's science) but there is certainly plenty of startling studies out there and factual statstics based on them. Perhaps if you were living here watching this unfold you would be of different opinion concerning science and more accurate numbers. Record cases daily. Hospitals full to the point where even emergencies will get delayed care, if they don't get sent to the next available hospital. People are getting sick more than once. Even though hospitals are full, state numbers still breaking daily records. Where will they go? Healthy people that didn't even realize they were sick are dying in their sleep from O2 levels going to low. An unexplained increase in the mortality rate when compared to prior years, I could go on and on. Its not rocket science. You just have to pay attention and do actual research, outside of your calculator. You're not here yet you think you know cuz of "numbers." I have been watching this very closely since the beginning. If the US economy truly tanks as your implying it's because of the lack of leadership and complete failure in handling this crisis. Other countries did this. They shut down, they stayed home, they opened up safely. They are now enjoying their summer, safely. Point blank - To be from another country and have no clue what the actual status of the US is you should really just stop with all that. You seriously have no idea what you're talking about.
Fogdog
Well-Known Member
Letting it run it's course is what happens if we fail at managing it. I totally agree that in some parts of the country we are failing. Where I live, we are still doing OK. But those failed states keep sending infected people our way. Eventually they will break us. We do have a long way to go and I'm willing to see our country go back into lockdown mode in order to get this thing back under control. Maybe then we will take the right steps.
Sweden is an example of what happens when you let the virus run its course. Actually it didn't run its course because people said "bullshit, I'm staying home." Enough people circulated about and some of them brought the disease into elder care facilities. As a result they ended up with more dead than neighboring countries and a moribund economy. Yet test data as of June showed they are only 25% exposed. That's doesn't work so let's just check that alternative off the list.
Let's talk about the cost in terms of lives. The people most likely to die or become severely ill are those over 60 and those with certain pre-conditions like asthma, high blood pressure, diabetes and so forth. For the aged, those over 80, this virus is practically a death sentence and a horrible death at that. I value the lives of these people. I value their civil rights too. We need a strategy that includes their well-being too. The "just let it rip" does not value their lives very much at all. So, from a humane perspective it fails.
Finally, it's a false choice to say "open up to save the economy" or "kill the economy to slow the spread". If workplaces aren't safe, if stores or places of commerce aren't safe then the economy can't come back because people will find ways to avoid going to work or shop. I'm completely offended by the idea of forcing workers to work without social distancing, PPE and clean facilities.
Circling back to the "asymptomatic" number of 40%. I found this in a cursory google search:
Whole-Town Study Reveals Large Percentage of Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases
A study of COVID-19 in the quarantined Italian town of Vò, where most of the population was tested, reveals the importance of asymptomatic cases. The
globalbiodefense.com
The testing revealed that at the start of the lockdown, 2.6 percent of the population (73 people) were positive for SARS-CoV-2, while after a couple of weeks only 1.2 percent (29 people) were positive. At both times, around 40 percent of the positive cases showed no symptoms (asymptomatic). The results also show it took on average 9.3 days (range of 8-14 days) for the virus to be cleared from someone’s body.
That's "40% of the people who tested positive", about 2% in that study overall tested positive -- a very small and limited study. Again. about 2% of the people tested in a town in Europe came out positive for the infection. 60% of those were symptomatic, 40% were not. All of them were able to spread the virus around. About 60 people in a town of 3200 tested positive and were symptomatic -- they are the kinds of people who get tested in the US. In the US of those who test positive and are symptomatic, about 4% die. Of people who test positive, end up in the hospital and live, 30% suffer long term disability. But not everybody who get sick get tested and not everybody who dies from the virus make it to the hospital, so they aren't counted. Not everybody who is exposed gains immunity. We don't know how long that immunity lasts. I look at all these eye watering numbers and all the unknowns and I can't see how they are useful. If you can't trust the data then don't use it. Find a different way to make a decision.
Because we don't have great intelligence on the state of this virus, the best we can do is listen to the advice from experts. They say be careful, maintain social distancing, don't go out to restaurants, stay safe. In other words, it's OK to conduct essential business but otherwise, this economy is going to suck for a while longer.
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Queen2Green
Well-Known Member
You're ideology is fucked, because you actually thought of and took the time to calculate "healthy" human beings instead of all human beings. Lord have mercy. The entire world is having protests right now for equality and you want to base your opinion on numbers that include only "healthy" people. I'm not afraid. I'm a realist and people are dying all around me. Young, old, healthy, sick, democrats, republicans, the virus don't care and you're fucked up ideology of America's situation isn't helping anyone in America. You're from another country on a forum, implying that high risk people don't matter. I didn't say anything about masks or vaccines because I got here late and I didn't see any of that. Everyone needs to social distance and be safe, or everyone will be effected. I don't mind having logical discussions over differences of opinion based on facts but you are not bringing true facts, just inaccurate statistics that can be proven invalid by other statistics.
Five of diamonds
Member
Where are you getting the x9 number? I agree its probably many more infected then they have tested. But your saying many more have died due to direct cause of the virus than is being reported? Where are you getting that info and how do you know its 100% accurate? I am basing my math on the positive tests done and the numbers of deaths reported due to covid. Not collateral damage, wait times etc etc. That number is not known therefore I didnt use it. How is one supposed to figure out the statistics without using the numbers given?
The countries that have done better, are not in the clear. Do you think it won't come back? Do you think it didnt cost them to do what they did? If one thing can be said about America's strategy of ignorance and saying fuck it, its that IF herd imunity is a thing with this virus, it will be over for them long before it will be over most other countries. They will get it again and again no? Have to shut down again and again no? When it rears its head next time? Or do you expect compete eradication of the virus? If so i wish i had that faith.
Five of diamonds
Member
Well said.Letting it run it's course is what happens if we fail at managing it. I totally agree that in some parts of the country we are failing. Where I live, we are still doing OK. But those failed states keep sending infected people our way. Eventually they will break us. We do have a long way to go and I'm willing to see our country go back into lockdown mode in order to get this thing back under control. Maybe then we will take the right steps.
Sweden is an example of what happens when you let the virus run its course. Actually it didn't run its course because people said "bullshit, I'm staying home." Enough people circulated about and some of them brought the disease into elder care facilities. As a result they ended up with more dead than neighboring countries and a moribund economy. Yet test data as of June showed they are only 25% exposed. That's doesn't work so let's just check that alternative off the list.
Let's talk about the cost in terms of lives. The people most likely do die or become severely ill are those over 60 and those with certain pre-conditions like asthma, high blood pressure, diabetes and so forth. For the aged, those over 80, this virus is practically a death sentence and a horrible death at that. I value the lives of these people. I value their civil rights too. We need a strategy that includes their well-being too. The "just let it rip" does not value their lives very much at all. So, from a humane perspective it fails.
Finally, it's a false choice to say "open up to save the economy" or "kill the economy to slow the spread". If workplaces aren't safe, if stores or places of commerce aren't safe then the economy can't come back because people will find ways to avoid going to work or shop. I'm completely offended by the idea of forcing workers to work without social distancing, PPE and clean facilities.
Circling back to the "asymptomatic" number of 40%. I found this in a cursory google search:
Whole-Town Study Reveals Large Percentage of Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases
A study of COVID-19 in the quarantined Italian town of Vò, where most of the population was tested, reveals the importance of asymptomatic cases. The
The testing revealed that at the start of the lockdown, 2.6 percent of the population (73 people) were positive for SARS-CoV-2, while after a couple of weeks only 1.2 percent (29 people) were positive. At both times, around 40 percent of the positive cases showed no symptoms (asymptomatic). The results also show it took on average 9.3 days (range of 8-14 days) for the virus to be cleared from someone’s body.
That's "40% of the people who tested positive", about 2% in that study overall tested positive -- a very small and limited study. Again. about 2% of the people tested in a town in Europe came out positive for the infection. 60% of those were symptomatic, 40% were not. All of them were able to spread the virus around. About 60 people in a town of 3200 tested positive and were symptomatic -- they are the kinds of people who get tested in the US. In the US 4% die who test positive and are symptomatic die. Of people who test positive, end up in the hospital and live, 30% suffer long term disability. We also know that not everybody who is exposed gains immunity. We don't know how long that immunity lasts. I look at all these eye watering numbers and all the unknowns and I can't see how they are useful. If you can't trust the data then don't use it. Find a different way to make a decision.
Because we don't have great intelligence on the state of this virus, the best we can do is listen to the advice from experts. They say be careful, maintain social distancing, don't go out to restaurants, stay safe. In other words, it's OK to conduct essential business but otherwise, this economy is going to suck for a while longer.
Queen2Green
Well-Known Member
His response was well written and thats why I didn't come back with numbers response, because he basically said most of what I was going to. I do agree with you on this and it's my thoughts exactly that America is likely too far into this to stop it. The thing is, we need it to slow down, NOW, because many of our hospital systems in major areas are overwhelmed. Therefore, many people will start dying that shouldn't have and don't even have covid. Wrecks, heart attacks, all kinds of emergencies that will be delayed or go unattended. If we don't do something now, things will actually be out of control, and many are going to die unnecessarily. It is possible to close up shop in the areas where cases are skyrocketing and keep shop open in places that aren't. Social distance, wear masks. There has to be some kind of balance because at the current rate we are hospitalizing people, we will not keep up with healthcare.
Five of diamonds
Member
My ideology is my own and I am fine with that. In my mind who doesn't want to know THEIR chances of survival? Assuming you are healthy that is. I don't view that as being morally bankrupt. I didnt say let them all die either. Just some % numbers based on the info that was available and some thoughts. Also, it is true I am not in American, but how is it wrong for me to discuss these things? Especially if you correct me and I learn about the situation more?
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