Where are you getting the x9 number? I agree its probably many more infected then they have tested. But your saying many more have died due to direct cause of the virus than is being reported? Where are you getting that info and how do you know its 100% accurate? I am basing my math on the positive tests done and the numbers of deaths reported due to covid. Not collateral damage, wait times etc etc. That number is not known therefore I didnt use it. How is one supposed to figure out the statistics without using the numbers given?
The countries that have done better, are not in the clear. Do you think it won't come back? Do you think it didnt cost them to do what they did? If one thing can be said about America's strategy of ignorance and saying fuck it, its that IF herd imunity is a thing with this virus, it will be over for them long before it will be over most other countries. They will get it again and again no? Have to shut down again and again no? When it rears its head next time? Or do you expect compete eradication of the virus? If so i wish i had that faith.
Based on studies done by experts. I've been watching the actual research since January. I corrected my assumption on your numbers before when I seen you were using the actual data numbers. I think your chances of survival are based on a lot more factors than just being healthy, so that is a chance that is pretty hard to compute right now.
Yes, I am saying more people have died from covid then reported. I'm not going to search for sources right now because I seriously need to go to bed. I can't remember off the top of my head, but you can look it up. The premise is based on the rate of death being considerably higher than prior years. There is an obvious reason for that.
You don't figure it out based on numbers. You act like a research scientist and look at all the evidence. Plus the numbers.
Of course I think it will come back. We need a vaccine. Until then, likely all we can do is control it by being safe, wearing masks, and staying 6 feet away from each other. Our world as we've known it has been irrevocably changed. All we can do at this point is take care of each other, do everything we can to fight it, and then rebuild. Again, I'm not saying to halt the economy. There is some things that just are not necessary. It's necessary right now, for them to be closed. There is actually plenty of jobs if people choose to work. Our government can afford to see us through this, until we recover our health. We spend billions on our millitary, please don't tell me we can't afford coronavirus.
Herd immunity will not happen without an exteme and unacceptable loss of life. Anyone who thinks that lacks empathy, and is either selfish or uneducated. Millions upons millions of people will die before that will ever happen. I honestly don't believe its possible at all, due to the lack of antibodies being found in studies and the mutations.
My ideology is my own and I am fine with that. In my mind who doesn't want to know THEIR chances of survival? Assuming you are healthy that is. I don't view that as being morally bankrupt. I didnt say let them all die either. Just some % numbers based on the info that was available and some thoughts. Also, it is true I am not in American, but how is it wrong for me to discuss these things? Especially if you correct me and I learn about the situation more?
I'm high risk and I would love to know my chance. Can you compute that? I don't leave the house but all my groceries and services are delivered so there's that. Humans in my area are not wearing masks even though they are mandated, and our hospital systems are completely overwhelmed and shutting down in all major cities. I'm sick as fuck of living like this, but all I ever hear about is the healthy people and how this is all ok, but I can see from the data and everything around me that everything is NOT ok. It's frustrating. How do you think the old and high risk people are getting it? We are hiding in our homes. The healthy people are bringing it to us!!! How long are we expected to "just stay home??" There's danger in that as well.. I do view that as morally bankrupt and that is why I was so quick to snap, sorry. Honestly it's not due to my own situation, thats just the kind of empathetic person I've always been. Everyone is of equal risk and I just don't understand why anyone would be calculating heathy people. Healthy people have grandmas, and high risk family members too. Data has showed that the majority of people infecting people are family members, not the general public. The problem is, we have to shut down, because we need it to slow down.
It's not wrong to discuss, and you're right. I try to convince people all the time to be nice and talk civil because that is truly the only way you will change someones mind, if it's able to be changed. Sorry.
Agreed this doesn't seem like a good timeline. But what's the timeline on flattning the curve? Isn't it longer? Again, just asking your thoughts. Will this ever end?
It's not. I don't know about flattening the curve but we may have to close in waves or areas on and off. I don't know. I have lots of thoughts but I'm tired and I'm down to very little time to sleep before work. I'll be back later today.
