Pandemic 2020
- Thread starter Jimdamick
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captainmorgan
Well-Known Member
He's faking.
captainmorgan
Well-Known Member
The Mutated Virus Is a Ticking Time Bomb
There is much we don’t know about the new COVID-19 variant—but everything we know so far suggests a huge danger.
captainmorgan
Well-Known Member
4,000 dead in a single day, happy new year.
topcat
Well-Known Member
Finally, we're great, again. Hell a loo ya.
captainmorgan
Well-Known Member
With this new variant we could see 200,000 dead in January if people don't pull their heads out of their asses and wear a damn mask.
Fogdog
Well-Known Member
I did some last minute shopping. uck. The store was crowded and the checkout counters were understaffed. Everybody wore masks but it was impossible to maintain 6 foot distancing in the aisles, especially when staff were trying to re-stock at the same time that people were shopping.
That's the thing. Its not just the masks. It's six feet distancing at the least, wash hands frequently, avoid crowds, avoid poorly ventilated spaces. I feel as if we've failed. You are right. IF this new strain is more easily transmitted then its as if we added gasoline to the kerosene.
Perhaps you've come across more definitive information. There is only indirect data saying the virus is more transmissible. A researcher saw a surge in cases that coincided with detection of this new strain. Drawing conclusions using metadata like the researcher gathered is not bad but not good either. I'm not ignoring these findings, I'm just skeptical when a researcher who draws a conclusion by connecting two otherwise independent findings. I've done the same, I admit, but I've also been wrong when I did.
The U.K. Coronavirus Mutation Is Worrying but Not Terrifying
There is evidence the new variant could be more transmissible, yet vaccines work very well against it
Based on mathematical models, calculations by the COVID-19 Genomics UK consortium suggest that B.1.1.7 might be up to 70 percent more transmissible than the original virus. “It’s a shocking valuation, clearly something new that’s circulating,” says Ali Mokdad, a population health expert at the University of Washington. “Any mutation out there is a concern for us. This is a stubborn and opportunistic virus.”
Some researchers, however, doubt that the rapid spread of the new variant in the U.K. necessarily means it is more transmissible. “I do agree we should look into these things. But until we have some data, we should really be careful about what we say,” says Vincent Racaniello, a virologist at Columbia University. The best information on transmissibility will come from studies of animals that look at whether this variant moves more easily from one creature to another, and that work has not yet been published. Because the majority of COVID-19 outbreaks are caused by superspreaders, Racaniello says, it is conceivable that one person or a few individuals spread the new variant widely.
captainmorgan
Well-Known Member
A study has already come out saying it's 50-70% more transmissible,it's not peer reviewed but they are confirming now. They also think it causes higher viral loads.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
A new high record for Trump, but he's got 20 days to top it and will leave Joe a disaster on multiple fronts. Reality no longer matters to the republican base, they can twist and shape it into whatever they want, ditto for history. Donald showed Mitch the way and showed them all the degree that their voters were suckers and losers who will tolerate being screwed.
140 republican house members and a hand full of senators will make a spectacle for Trump on Dec 6th. Remember them, they are the worst of a bad bunch, every one of them is throwing their country under the bus to pander to the worst of their base.
Two House Republicans tell CNN they expect at least 140 House Republicans to vote against counting electoral votes - CNNPolitics
captainmorgan
Well-Known Member
tRUmptard wants to get in on the killing,the dear leader can't have all the fun.
www.chicagotribune.com
Employees at suburban Milwaukee clinic unknowingly gave out 57 shots with deliberately ruined vaccine; pharmacist arrested
Authorities arrested a suburban Milwaukee pharmacist Thursday suspected of deliberately ruining hundreds of doses of coronavirus vaccine by removing them from refrigeration for two nights. The arre…
www.chicagotribune.com
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Plan for the worst and hope for the best, the only ones doing any planning are Biden's team. There is not much we can do about new variants except to vaccine globally and eliminate opportunities for it to mutate further, fortunately the adenovirus vaccines are cheap and quick to produce in volume. I'd also vaccine domestic animals and perhaps even pets eventually, new variants can popup there too.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
They are gonna fuck that guy, prison will be the least of his worries, someone is gonna have a lifelong hardon for this clown. If anybody died from covid who got the bad vaccine, he would be really screwed, as it stands he will be sued out of financial existence. Looks like a psycho to me, someone who would have killed in the future anyway, clearly unfit for the responsibility.tRUmptard wants to get in on the killing,the dear leader can't have all the fun.
Employees at suburban Milwaukee clinic unknowingly gave out 57 shots with deliberately ruined vaccine; pharmacist arrested
Authorities arrested a suburban Milwaukee pharmacist Thursday suspected of deliberately ruining hundreds of doses of coronavirus vaccine by removing them from refrigeration for two nights. The arre…
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
This is a conservative provincial government in Canada.
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Rod Phillips resigns after vacation controversy
Rod Phillips is packing up again...this time it's his finance minister portfolio. Caryn Ceolin on Phillips' cabinet resignation just hours after returning home from a controversial vacation.
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Rod Phillips resigns after vacation controversy
Rod Phillips is packing up again...this time it's his finance minister portfolio. Caryn Ceolin on Phillips' cabinet resignation just hours after returning home from a controversial vacation.
captainmorgan
Well-Known Member
In Los Angeles if you're accepted by ambulance in the ER it takes 8 hours before you get any care.
Dr.Amber Trichome
Well-Known Member
Almost 600 dead from Covid in Cali today. Very sad.
Reading the LA times and all the heart breaking stories . So sad.
captainmorgan
Well-Known Member
Early this week some hospitals in Los Angeles were running low on oxygen and were turning new patients away. Covid patients require so much oxygen that some of the oxygen lines in the hospitals are freezing because of the demand on them.
Dr.Amber Trichome
Well-Known Member
That’s what I read as well. Hopefully the national guard or someone comes in to help at this point like they did in NYC back in April when we are
In lock downs. Seems like an eternity ago in a lot of ways but I remember those days well because it was so traumatic for me .
and got called into my bosses office and reprimanded for too
Much social distancing . Those fuckers!
In lock downs. Seems like an eternity ago in a lot of ways but I remember those days well because it was so traumatic for me .
and got called into my bosses office and reprimanded for too
Much social distancing . Those fuckers!
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Welcome to America new covid variant, the land of opportunity...
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The Mutated Coronavirus Is a Ticking Time Bomb - The Atlantic
The Mutated Virus Is a Ticking Time Bomb
There is much we don’t know about the new COVID-19 variant—but everything we know so far suggests a huge danger.
A new variant of the coronavirus is spreading across the globe. It was first identified in the United Kingdom, where it is rapidly spreading, and has been found in multiple countries. Viruses mutate all the time, often with no impact, but this one appears to be more transmissible than other variants—meaning it spreads more easily. Barely one day after officials announced that America’s first case of the variant had been found in the United States, in a Colorado man with no history of travel, an additional case was found in California.
There are still many unknowns, but much concern has focused on whether this new variant would throw off vaccine efficacy or cause more severe disease—with some degree of relief after an initial study indicated that it did not do either. And while we need more data to feel truly reassured, many scientists believe that this variant will not decrease vaccine efficacy much, if at all. Health officials have started emphasizing the lack of evidence for more severe disease.
All good and no cause for alarm, right? Wrong.
A more transmissible variant of COVID-19 is a potential catastrophe in and of itself. If anything, given the stage in the pandemic we are at, a more transmissible variant is in some ways much more dangerous than a more severe variant. That’s because higher transmissibility subjects us to a more contagious virus spreading with exponential growth, whereas the risk from increased severity would have increased in a linear manner, affecting only those infected.
Increased transmissibility can wreak havoc in a very, very short time—especially when we already have uncontrolled spread in much of the United States. The short-term implications of all this are significant, and worthy of attention, even as we await more clarity from data. In fact, we should act quickly especially as we await more clarity—lack of data and the threat of even faster exponential growth argue for more urgency of action. If and when more reassuring data come in, relaxing restrictions will be easier than undoing the damage done by not having reacted in time.
To understand the difference between exponential and linear risks, consider an example put forth by Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who focuses on mathematical analyses of infectious-disease outbreaks. Kucharski compares a 50 percent increase in virus lethality to a 50 percent increase in virus transmissibility. Take a virus reproduction rate of about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine 10,000 active infections—a plausible scenario for many European cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we’d expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month—assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day infection-generation time.
Transmissibility increases can quickly—very quickly—expand the baseline: Each new infected person potentially infects many more people. Severity increases affect only the infected person. That infection is certainly tragic, and this new variant’s lack of increase in severity or lethality thankfully means that the variant is not a bigger threat to the individual who may get infected. It is, however, a bigger threat to society because it can dramatically change the number of infected people. To put it another way, a small percentage of a very big number can easily be much, much bigger than a big percentage of a small number.
more...
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The Mutated Coronavirus Is a Ticking Time Bomb - The Atlantic
The Mutated Virus Is a Ticking Time Bomb
There is much we don’t know about the new COVID-19 variant—but everything we know so far suggests a huge danger.
A new variant of the coronavirus is spreading across the globe. It was first identified in the United Kingdom, where it is rapidly spreading, and has been found in multiple countries. Viruses mutate all the time, often with no impact, but this one appears to be more transmissible than other variants—meaning it spreads more easily. Barely one day after officials announced that America’s first case of the variant had been found in the United States, in a Colorado man with no history of travel, an additional case was found in California.
There are still many unknowns, but much concern has focused on whether this new variant would throw off vaccine efficacy or cause more severe disease—with some degree of relief after an initial study indicated that it did not do either. And while we need more data to feel truly reassured, many scientists believe that this variant will not decrease vaccine efficacy much, if at all. Health officials have started emphasizing the lack of evidence for more severe disease.
All good and no cause for alarm, right? Wrong.
A more transmissible variant of COVID-19 is a potential catastrophe in and of itself. If anything, given the stage in the pandemic we are at, a more transmissible variant is in some ways much more dangerous than a more severe variant. That’s because higher transmissibility subjects us to a more contagious virus spreading with exponential growth, whereas the risk from increased severity would have increased in a linear manner, affecting only those infected.
Increased transmissibility can wreak havoc in a very, very short time—especially when we already have uncontrolled spread in much of the United States. The short-term implications of all this are significant, and worthy of attention, even as we await more clarity from data. In fact, we should act quickly especially as we await more clarity—lack of data and the threat of even faster exponential growth argue for more urgency of action. If and when more reassuring data come in, relaxing restrictions will be easier than undoing the damage done by not having reacted in time.
To understand the difference between exponential and linear risks, consider an example put forth by Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who focuses on mathematical analyses of infectious-disease outbreaks. Kucharski compares a 50 percent increase in virus lethality to a 50 percent increase in virus transmissibility. Take a virus reproduction rate of about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine 10,000 active infections—a plausible scenario for many European cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we’d expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month—assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day infection-generation time.
Transmissibility increases can quickly—very quickly—expand the baseline: Each new infected person potentially infects many more people. Severity increases affect only the infected person. That infection is certainly tragic, and this new variant’s lack of increase in severity or lethality thankfully means that the variant is not a bigger threat to the individual who may get infected. It is, however, a bigger threat to society because it can dramatically change the number of infected people. To put it another way, a small percentage of a very big number can easily be much, much bigger than a big percentage of a small number.
more...
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Dr.Amber Trichome
Well-Known Member
That shits in Canada too by now.Welcome to Canada!!!
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Did you get the jab yet? Or any word on when you will? Many places are going with the first inoculation and hoping the second one will come with new supplies. I think you are gonna see this strategy employed in some states too, the first round will offer protection, reduce the severity of illness and hospitalizations. The new more infectious variant may start driving decisions about this, the elderly, vulnerable and perhaps healthcare workers might get two rounds and everybody else waits for a booster shot.
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