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Ukraine update: Izyum, Kupyansk, Lyman all under attack as Ukraine doubles size of liberated area
Events are happening so quickly in the Ukrainian counteroffensive that it’s genuinely impossible to cover them all. This morning, the version of the map posted showed just under 1,000 square kilometers of territory liberated by Ukrainian forces in this...
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Events are happening so quickly in the Ukrainian counteroffensive that it’s genuinely impossible to cover them all. This morning, the version of the map posted showed just under 1,000 square kilometers of territory liberated by Ukrainian forces in this single drive across Kharkiv Oblast. Eight hours later, that number is over 1,600 square kilometers. Ukrainian forces have reportedly taken out the bridge at Kupyansk, captured the town of Senkove, and possibly even moved 10 km down the eastern bank of the Oskil River. There are reports that Ukraine has liberated Buhaivka, which was known to be the site of a major Russian vehicle storage and repair depot, and of units engaged as far south as Vesele and Kunje, less than 20 km north of Izyum
And that’s far from all. Just three days ago, this was part of the morning Ukraine update:
Lyman. Remember Lyman? It was one of the largest town Russia had captured when it fell in mid-May, and that’s about the last time we’ve had a reason to mention it. Only I’m mentioning it now, because Ukrainian forces have reportedly taken Staryi Karavan, only 3km from Lyman.
There are reports on Friday that there is active fighting in both the suburbs and in Lyman itself, as what was thought to be a token force of Ukrainian troops in Staryi Karavan and Ozerne surges to the north. It’s getting to where there is no place in Ukraine safe for a Russian military crew. Just as it should be.
Ukraine expands area captured by 60% in a day.
What began as a slender salient shooting rapidly along a single highway has turned into a broad counteroffensive that has taken a solid chunk out of Russia’s occupied territory. It’s also either completely cut, or very nearly so, all supply lines to what is reportedly a force of around 10,000 stationed in and around Izyum.
There appears to be active fighting all around Kupyansk, as well as at multiple points along the southern edge of this widening advance. It’s unclear so far if there is any place that Russia has really dug in their heels and put up a solid resistance.
In response to this action Russia has sent forward an entire fleet of … videos, which supposedly show reinforcements rolling in from Belgorod to the north. However, there have so far been few reports of these reinforcements on the ground and several of those videos have proven to be fakes.
What’s obvious is that in this location at least, Russia’s line was exactly one village deep. Once Ukrainian forces were able to either capture or bypass locations like Balakliya and Verbivka they were running loose in Russia’s backfield. With a few exceptions, the small Russian forces they’ve encountered have seemed to have one thought on their mind: which way to run. And even when Ukrainian troops did meet some resistance, as at Shevchenkove and Hrushivka, they seem to have cleared away those obstacles in a matter of hours, not days.
Meanwhile, in the puppet theater that is the official Russia media, Russia has relieved the forces still valiantly fighting at Balakliya and crackerjack VDV units are holding a weak force of Ukrainian assailants at bay. All is well. Situation normal. There is no panic. They need to let Russian Telegram know this, because that place is all panic.
But there’s no doubt that Russia is desperately trying to move the pieces around the board in hopes of stopping Ukraine at Kupyansk and throwing some kind of firewall in front of Izyum. Which, on Friday morning in Ukraine, came in the form of reports of troops being repositioned from locations in Luhansk and Donetsk. Locations such as … Lyman.
This map should give a sense of how the widening Kharkiv counteroffensive relates to Izyum. On Thursday, Russia was still pushing out pointless attacks from Izyum toward Dovhen'ke, but now there is a whole line of reported fighting less than 20 km north of the city.
At the same time, Ukraine is pushing north into Lyman. That city happens to be on the southern end of rail lines that also run straight through Kupyansk, so Ukrainian forces in that location means that Lyman’s primary means of supply is shut down. Plus, it’s not clear how many Russian forces were left to hold this city, particularly with the need for those troops in Russia’s long slog toward Bakhmut and the urgent calls from Kupyansk.
Russia may well have expected the Siverskyi Donets River to do their defense for them. After all, this location is near that of Bilohorivka, where Russian forces suffered three consecutive disasters in an attempt to bridge the river. It was already clear from Ozerne and Staryi Karavan that Russia wasn’t keeping a large defensive force in place. Videos that showed just a few Ukrainian special forces scouting locations across the river may well have been a ruse to distract from construction of a pontoon bridge and establishment of a more substantial bridgehead.
In any case … look at Izyum. There are 10,000 Russian troops there. Their primary supply line from the rail hub at Kupyansk is cut off. Nothing is coming across the river at Senkove. Whatever they are going to get is going to have to come across the bridge at Oskil, and how were most supplies reaching that location? Down the rail line from Kupyansk.
A reasonable tactician might be moving those forces out of Izyum as quickly as possible, or arranging them in tight defensive lines behind fortifications. But just how fortified Izyum might be against an approach from the north isn’t clear. After all, that Izyum salient dates back to the second week of the invasion. Like all the rest of the territory behind Balakliya, they may have done nothing at all to prepare for a massed assault coming in from “their” territory.
In fact, there are now reports that the fighting isn’t near Izyum. It’s in Izyum.
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