DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
I think if Lukashenko does invade Ukraine, it probably won't be with his whole army, which is pretty small. If ya look at a map you'll see Belarus is surrounded on three sides by free countries and they get their TV and radio broadcasts. Unlike Russia, many more people know the truth and Lukashenko does not have majority support. For instance all the colonels, the ones in more direct control of the troops have access to such information as do many of the elites. They can see what is happening in Ukraine and especially the trouble the Russians are in and how desperate and bad Vlad really is. They are under sanctions too, but not as much as Russia, protestors have held up truck convoys at the border and nothing is getting in from Poland.If the Belarussians join this shit show,I'd expect their performance to be even worse than Russia's has been,how much appetite for war does a young Belarussian conscript have being thrown into this by a extremely unpopular suck up dictator? News coming from refugees leaving Mariople says that the 1st couple of security checkpoints are staffed by Russian teenage conscripts who are friendly and clueless as to what they are doing in Ukraine,after those checkpoints as you get into central Ukraine these areas are staffed by older and more hardcore soldier's who are deleting phones and are much more aggressive in questioning,searching,etc.
If he does go to Ukraine, it will probably lead to revolution at home, even if the place is practically occupied by the Russians. There are vital railways going through there that railway workers are disrupting now and they were going to join a couple of weeks ago, but the army threatened mutiny. Vlad has been squeezing Lukashenko's nuts until his eyeballs are nearly popping out to try and get him to join in. Vlad is apparently pretty desperate, trying to find warm bodies to throw into the fire back in Russia.