In a month Vlad will be fit to be tied, especially if he loses 25K troops captured in Kherson and much of their equipment. There appear to be enough munitions stacked up around the railheads and supply depots to keep their tanks and Russian guns going for a while and the western arms keep coming and will increase if Vlad is playing with chemicals.
Winter will not be kind to the Russians remaining in Ukraine, I don't think it will stop the Ukrainians from killing them. I think ending it quickly might be the best solution, cause a collapse of the Russians in Ukraine ASAP, cut Vlad off at the knees and blow his rail lines into Ukraine. If he uses a nuke, it will be out of spite and vengeance, but his army will be cut off in Ukraine and trapped inside Russia.