The ground didn't freeze until this week. Going to the coast is still the best bet for cutting off Russian supply lines. Not sure if they have the firepower to do it. But if they wait too long, Russia will bring in more troops.
That is the combination of logistical possibilities that has me worried.
Russia changed it tactics and massed troops for the attack. Ukraine was late sending in reinforcements. You may have noticed almost all the rest of the line had much less fighting while this was happening.
In war ya make tactical withdrawals and counter attacks, the Russians concentrated a lot of forces into a small area and continued to pour more in during the planned withdrawal. What would you do if you were the Ukrainian general after pulling your men out of a pocket now over filled with Russians? I'd pour in artillery and turn it into a fucking graveyard!
Yes, the timing is not good. If they had had Bradley's and cold weather a month ago, I think we would have seen something by now.
Did anybody other than Putin predict this would be over in a year? I thought it might when Russia invaded but that was dispelled after the first couple of weeks. Ukraine showed its ability to fight and Russia's inability to do anything other than lose men and equipment. The largest supplier of tanks to Ukraine is Russia. I've heard military analysts say same as you that the US Abrams isn't a good fit in Ukraine's infrastructure or military.
30% casualties? A couple more weeks of victory and Wagner will cease to exist.
They should have been training Ukrainian pilots on nato aircraft, just incase NATO air strikes into Ukraine would be like boots on the ground. ATACMS and agreed upon targeting, they can also geofence these things apparently and increased AA defense until Vlad runs out of rockets or can't get any through. Drones are easier to defend against with machine guns on trucks apparently.
Pretty close those loses are over that one city. Bakamut is another, I would guess the same percentage of personal or higher costs there..js..
They are cleaning the desperate fools out of the Russian prison system. It will make room for the new political prisoners who are filling the system now. They arrive by the trainload and the Ukrainians kill them by the trainload, often upon arrival! I say stop the trains inside Russia and let them walk to Ukraine!
Ukrainian pilots would make no difference to Russia vs. Nato pilots if Nato aircraft enter the fray. Either way they’re gonna say they’re at war with Nato. So might as well send in the pilots who know their airframes like the backs of their hands.
Since the Russian air force hasn't made much of a showing in Ukraine, NATO won't either, all things being equal on the ground and not really required IMHO. The Ukrainians would be howling for it and have recently been silent on the issue of western planes, happy with the other arms systems pouring in I guess. Most of it won't be ready for winter offensives, but there is spring and much of the current stuff could be chewed up in battle.
Lately their air force has been pretty busy firing standoff weapons at civilian and aerial targets. I could be talking out of my hee-haw, but antiair seems like a useful mission currently.
If they wanna go deep inside Russia to get the bombers firing them from hundreds of kilometers away, not even the Ukrainain S300s can reach them. A drone with an aa missile might be able to bushwhack them though, even if it destroyed itself firing a sidewinder from down on the deck while in a steep climb. GPS to the area and activated on a signal, even an old mig fighter remote controlled on a one way trip.
Good news!