War

schuylaar

Well-Known Member
putin basicly wants to get as much of the old USSR back b4 he dies of cancer, he wants it to be his crowning glory b4 the cancer kills him. i dont see that ukraine started any of this or instagated anything, putin was looking for a fight no matter what. hes a hasbeen murderer of inosent people. i cant see it that the ukraine had anything to do with it at all
He better hurry; his has a yellow cast to face. Bilirubin = Liver.
 

CCGNZ

Well-Known Member
The very simple answer to the bolded is that they did cede it back in the day, and kept the boundaries intact during the breakup. “On second thought” is not legitimate. Crimea is properly a Ukrainian possession, and I hope they take it back.

As for routing the Russians, things might get surprising after another season’s attrition. The one thing it ain’t is boring.

(add) Russia is promoting “the nuke talk” because it is a cheap and effective tactic of intimidation. If we cave to it, I foresee a century of bad foreign policies worldwide.

The one thing making nuclear deterrence work in this era following the one of mutual assured destruction is the promise of a massive response should anyone ignore or defy the global handshake agreement to keep war conventional.

It may come to an object lesson that Nato is well-positioned to deliver. I counsel against appeasement; it has led to bad results in living memory.
You raise good counterpoints as always,these were my thoughts,not hopes in a 360% analysis of a complex,dangerous situation that just gets more opaque w/the Chinese starting to engage.A shooting war w/a nuclear state involved w/a increasingly desparate tyrant in charge vs. a country backed by 3 nuclear states w/a shady nuclear state possibly backing the nuclear state participating in the war. I certainly am apalled by Russia's conduct and primitive actions (is this 1923 or 2023) but the Russians are looking at Crimea as a matter of national survival so they are probably all in,no doubt they are paranoid w/their past history and can't "get it" that the West has no and never had the intention to invade Russia. And reciprocating the Russian use of nukes doesn't make me sleep any better, in their sick way of thinking it seems to me like they see doomsday as a acceptable end for them.Putin could be bluffing but this isn't poker and it won't be money lost if we're wrong,on top of all that I watched a CNN reporter in Crimea this morn. and all the people he talked to were pro Russian and they weren't at gunpoint. If Russia can be soundly defeated and all territory returned to Ukraine w/out Russia going doomsday sign me up,I just don't see them going down that way w/all the dark existential rhetoric coming from Moscow,I'll be more than happy to admit I was wrong when the time comes,hell I hope I'm wrong now.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Apparently, partisans or Ukrainian special operations has been using small commercial drones to attack Russian bases and facilities deep inside Russia and Belarus. Flying a suicide drone into a plane or dropping a small bomb on it from a few miles away can cause a lot of damage. No need to break or sneak into the base when you can sit in the woods outside and still cause as much damage, a dozen guards standing around the plane at night wouldn't help much.

 
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CCGNZ

Well-Known Member
The USA signed an agreement with Ukraine to defend them if they gave up 1000's of nukes they had when the USSR split up in the 90's. If the USA hadn't signed that Ukraine would have nukes today and F16's would be moot and Russia would never have invaded.. The USA enabled Russia to bully Ukraine like this. The USA is as much responsible as Russia and they need to stick to the agreement and defend Ukraine.
Can't take issue w/any of that,sure makes 2014 look bad,and the Europeans are also involved in the 90's nuke deal think,it must be a vague agreement as it sure didn't make Ukraine a Nato member,it's been 20+ yrs. and they weren't even sniffing it pre-invasion. It's all dark and exactly what the world didn't need on the heels of a pandemic and it's all a guessing game in terms of the length of western support 1more yr.,2yrs? It's already exposed the limits of arms mfg, and stores.,hope Ukraine really gets a move on this spring/summer.
 

CCGNZ

Well-Known Member
The Russians agreed to the borders when the USSR broke up and in subsequent agreements guaranteeing Ukrainian territorial integrity, in one of those agreements Ukraine gave up its nukes and America and the UK gave security assurances too. According to the UN charter the Russians broke the law and the international system of peace and prosperity. Russia has no claim on Crimea or any of the other republics they occupy, soon it will be the same rationalization when they try to occupy and absorb Belarus. The Russians even lost the referendum in Crimea, it was 57% there to join Ukraine and by the time the Ukrainians are done starving them out, many of the Russians who moved there will leave and are leaving in droves now. Russia invaded Crimea in 2014 the same way the invaded Georgia before and the same way they took over other places and the same way they are threating to take over Moldova. It's imperialism plain and simple, the people living in a place make the call and they did when the USSR broke up, not Putin and a gang of criminals in Moscow.

We will destroy their army and ability to project force, they can only operate about 50km from their wide gauge railheads anyway and this rail gauge is used in their former empire. By destroying critical rail bridges on the half dozen rail routes leading into Ukraine up to 100km inside Russia, they can be cut off and trapped in Russia. Rail tracks can be rapidly repaired, rail bridges take a lot of time, especially for Russia and especially when the repair crews and equipment are destroyed periodically by drone and missile attacks. The Russian military and economy are heavily dependent on the rail network, and they also have weak rail links crossing many bridges to the east of their country, Siberia and the eastern pacific coast. IMHO rail bridges are their weak link and destroying a few critical ones would see the Russians in a lot of trouble, many are in isolated locations in the middle of nowhere and very hard to defend.
I always thought that the majority of Crimea was pro Russian and the referendum you bring up I haven't heard of, but I trust that your right and we all know the permanent members of the UN Sec. Council have pissed all over any UN charters/resolutions/rulings at their convenience for yrs.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member

BudmanTX

Well-Known Member
I did an oops, the line about Nato provoking Russia was suppose to be in quotes. Basically Putin wants the previous USSR countries to be under russian control. Convinced himself that it was 'The West' that overthrew the "legally" elected government in Ukraine (never mind Russia manufactured the win). The West telling the people they can decide where they want their country to go. Right next door to Russia. What will the Russian people think?
dunno at this point, tbh......time will tell i guess

p.s remind to not partake, drink and type.....fyi..that post i put up last night......ewwwww
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Protect Berlin from what? The Russians have over 90% of their army in Ukraine, their air force is fucked and they are almost out of missiles and drones. The story is the same for all the European allies, there is little to defend against anymore and what is left is being destroyed or captured in Ukraine and should be mostly gone by summer. Western Europe can rearm a lot faster than Russia, even at a relaxed pace, but the pace of arms manufacturing has gone up considerably among the allies.

I still expect there will be fighting and regime change in Belarus, once the Ukrainians defeat the Russians in Ukraine. The Ukrainians won't invade, but the Russians will try to take the place over completely and it will cause civil war with the allies and Ukrainians backing the liberal democratic side. Belarus should finish off whatever army Russia has left and move the west to Moscow's doorstep. There are already large numbers of Belarussians fighting for Ukraine and I think Poland at least has been equipping them.

 

BudmanTX

Well-Known Member
awwwwww, you got your villas stolen, maybe you should re-look at the propaganda crap your spewing

 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
awwwwww, you got your villas stolen, maybe you should re-look at the propaganda crap your spewing

Every dime he has should be long gone in the west he regularly threatens us with nuclear weapons on TV. They won't have to worry about nuking their own property in the west since it will be taken from them. There will be a long drawn out international legal process for a lot of the Russian money held in reserve, but Ukraine will get their cash in the end. When countries hold gold and cash reserves in America, the EU or UK, there needs to be legal processes to get it, we can't just confiscate much of it, there needs to be an international legal process so as to retain confidence in the financial system. That's why a lot of the government money is still frozen but not seized, yet. Even if the Russians ended the war tomorrow the sanctions would still be there until the crimes against humanity and war crimes have been accounted for. It's not just about war and peace anymore, it's about law and justice too. If America declares Russia a terrorist state it can take its money, but many other countries keep their cash and gold reserves in America too and are watching, so a legal process must be followed.
 

CCGNZ

Well-Known Member
Protect Berlin from what? The Russians have over 90% of their army in Ukraine, their air force is fucked and they are almost out of missiles and drones. The story is the same for all the European allies, there is little to defend against anymore and what is left is being destroyed or captured in Ukraine and should be mostly gone by summer. Western Europe can rearm a lot faster than Russia, even at a relaxed pace, but the pace of arms manufacturing has gone up considerably among the allies.

I still expect there will be fighting and regime change in Belarus, once the Ukrainians defeat the Russians in Ukraine. The Ukrainians won't invade, but the Russians will try to take the place over completely and it will cause civil war with the allies and Ukrainians backing the liberal democratic side. Belarus should finish off whatever army Russia has left and move the west to Moscow's doorstep. There are already large numbers of Belarussians fighting for Ukraine and I think Poland at least has been equipping them.

Not only that, there has to be a cost for Belarus allowing a foreign invasion to be staged from Belarus,if Ukraine didn't have it's hands full it was certainly Cassius Belli and Ukraine would have been just in attacking Belarus and still holds that right. The Belarussian pop. is certainly not to blame though and the majority backs Ukraine,which is the primary reason Belarus has stayed out other than giving Putin a launching pad.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Not only that, there has to be a cost for Belarus allowing a foreign invasion to be staged from Belarus,if Ukraine didn't have it's hands full it was certainly Cassius Belli and Ukraine would have been just in attacking Belarus and still holds that right. The Belarussian pop. is certainly not to blame though and the majority backs Ukraine,which is the primary reason Belarus has stayed out other than giving Putin a launching pad.
Once the Russian army has been sucked into Ukraine completely and destroyed or captured the focus will be on Belarus, all those Belarusian fighters in Ukraine will be going home, organized, trained, armed to the teeth and backed by Ukraine and Poland. The Ukrainians are playing by international rules and will not invade but could come to the aid of a new government there for instance and there will be coups of military units too. The answer to both Ukraine and Belarus is to destroy the Russian rail bridges inside their borders leading into both places, when they are ready.

The complete destruction of the Russian army is the best chance Belarus has for freedom and the best long term security Ukraine and Europe can have. We don't want peace at this point, that ship has sailed, we want the complete and utter destruction of the Russian military machine and to destroy their ability to project power onto their smaller neighbors. As a bonus we might get rid of Vlad too, once destroyed, they won't be able to rebuild their army in a decade and even then, it will be a shadow of its former self. After this Europe can deal with Russia on its own, nobody is afraid of the big bad bear anymore. The next Trump that wants to break up NATO might find it easy to do, but the Russians could regret it, America too when it comes to confronting China. Having 50 liberal democratic allies who share your fundamental values should give a fellow a warm feeling inside and make adversaries nervous. America only controls about 25% of the global economy these days, so allies and the international system of law are important to other countries who live by the rule of law too.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
One thing I noticed about this war in particular, the diplomats and academics have been as fanatical as the military about whipping Putin's ass. They know you can't talk or reason with such a person or regime, so you speak in the language of violence, the one they understand. We don't want peace with Putin at this point, we are beyond the tipping point. It will be game over for Vlad after he, like Trump, got away with things for too long and became bolder because of it. Every US ambassador, state department official and diplomat that has dealt with Russia in the past few years is now screaming for their blood! :lol: They are not alone, since all the allied diplomats are saying the same thing and openly insulting the Russians at international meetings. When these kinds of folks are for war as much as the military types, you know history is about to be made!

 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Maybe let Joe and the state department deal with China, it is their job? They will tell congress if they need any thing and these clowns don't need to make complex relations with China any more difficult by pulling red meat out of their assholes for the base. Fascists need to have an "other" to invoke tribalism and that other can be a domestic or foreign target. These assholes don't need to box Biden in or stab him in the back when dealing with China, Joe and the state department know what they are doing, republicans not so much.

If we are gonna have trouble with China, best to put it off until the Russians are defeated in Europe and we have more time to rearm and onshore critical things, thanks to Russia. However, the war in Ukraine and Russia's ass whipping at the hands of Ukrainians supported by a strong alliance has given Xi pause. Perhaps he is thinking of opportunities in central Asia and in a dissolving Russian federation, but if he heads to Taiwan there will be war with the same allies that are fighting Russia plus quite a few more from the region.

Let Joe and the state department handle it, they will tell congress of any new laws regarding China that they need, they are the experts, and congress are the no nothings on the republican side at least.

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