i still do not see what is to stop putin from launching as soon as it becomes apparent that the Ukrainians are advancing over the russian border?It is what it is Roger, they might invade and take a Russian city, if there are large numbers of Ukrainians held by Russia. Shit I would consider threatening it as a way of cleaning Russians out of Crimea! One thing is for sure, to fight a war with Russia you need to ignore the fact that they have nukes. One problem with invading Russian territory though is it might arouse the Russian population and it is best to let them sleep. As things stand in this war, we are holding all the cards and gathering more every day, Vlad fucked himself and we are just helping to drive the point up his ass. Wait until the Ukrainian offensive gets rolling in a week or two, then you will really see the Russians defeated and humiliated. If it wasn't for nukes, they could go all the way to Moscow once they defeated the Russian army on the battlefield and have a parade on Red Square with the rubble of the Kremlin as a backdrop.
Threatening it would draw more forces to the Russian southern border and away from the rest of Ukraine. However, if the Russians leave with 100K Ukrainian hostages, then all bets are off. We kept nukes off the table so far and it appears China is helping to keep them off the table too. Having nukes is one thing, using them is quite another and their utility is very limited, and they can only be used defensively against other nukes. Attack the capitol of another country with conventional arms and they can attack them back with conventional arms. However, attacking Moscow or civilians with missiles is counterproductive and does nothing to win the war, do it enough and it could result in nuclear retaliation.i still do not see what is to stop putin from launching as soon as it becomes apparent that the Ukrainians are advancing over the russian border?
He will view that as his magical "existential threat" condition being met, and feel fully justified in destroying at least one Ukrainian city.
Then what happens? NATO attacks, and things escalate, or NATO doesn't attack, and putin is emboldened to commit even more war crimes and atrocities...Exactly what we're trying to avoid now.
There will probably be rubble in red square, and in Kiev, and who knows where else?
If Russia uses one nuke, it’s a whole new game. I would be surprised if Nato does not wage an immediate and fierce war of decapitation. A brief occupation in order to perform a comprehensive nuclear delousing, then the establishment of some sort of multiparty republic, probably with the secession of some southern territories.i still do not see what is to stop putin from launching as soon as it becomes apparent that the Ukrainians are advancing over the russian border?
He will view that as his magical "existential threat" condition being met, and feel fully justified in destroying at least one Ukrainian city.
Then what happens? NATO attacks, and things escalate, or NATO doesn't attack, and putin is emboldened to commit even more war crimes and atrocities...Exactly what we're trying to avoid now.
There will probably be rubble in red square, and in Kiev, and who knows where else?
i think putin would have considered this possibility, and put something in place to ensure his continued survival, or Europe's irradiation.If Russia uses one nuke, it’s a whole new game. I would be surprised if Nato does not wage an immediate and fierce war of decapitation. A brief occupation in order to perform a comprehensive nuclear delousing, then the establishment of some sort of multiparty republic, probably with the secession of some southern territories.
I think he knows that there is no way Russia will survive if they launch on Europe. France and Britain alone, without one US warhead or bomb used, can wipe out every center of industry in Russia in the course of a day.i think putin would have considered this possibility, and put something in place to ensure his continued survival, or Europe's irradiation.
He is a homicidal paranoiac, i cannot see him NOT taking such steps. Something as simple as having to check in with a certain outpost or sub at a certain time, or else they launch. NATO intel is probably pretty good, but is pretty good enough when you're trying to find EVERY launch facility in an entire largish country? I see things as being a LOT uglier than a "comprehensive delousing"...they'll only get one salvo off, but that one salvo will change the face of Europe, and the world.
then why are we waiting now?I think he knows that there is no way Russia will survive if they launch on Europe. France and Britain alone, without one US warhead or bomb used, can wipe out every center of industry in Russia in the course of a day.
I consider a strategic exchange to be the minority scenario.
because nuclear war is a bad thing … ?then why are we waiting now?
Elon doesn't want to display some tweets from the Ukrainian side. This is a land Suicide drone that uses 2 Anti-tank land mines and there are plenty of those laying around.