War

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
One can see why those drones that can spot mines with a thermal camera could be very useful and a system put in place to use them to clear mines. Perhaps they might do things like filter the video through AI to eliminate the false returns and overlay the results onto cellphone screen topo maps with precise GPS coordinates. They could even turn a cellphone into a mine detector using the data, just move it around and it beeps and shows you where mines are with an overlay on the phone camera image, like Xray vision.

 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
Now they have penetrated far enough, perhaps they will roll up the flanks of the Russian front, make them redeploy and then drive straight ahead to the sea of Azov by-passing built-up areas for the most part. They already made them redeploy with moves across the Dnieper near Crimea.

That language suggests that they have penetrated all defensive layers. That is not what the map shows.

Far enough is when they have torn a defensible miles-wide gap through the trenches, minefields, firebases etc. and can send division-strength mechanized forces to wage unopposed blitzkrieg in the soft underbelly of the occupied zone.

My quick look at the media bigs suggests nothing of the sort.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
That language suggests that they have penetrated all defensive layers. That is not what the map shows.

Far enough is when they have torn a defensible miles-wide gap through the trenches, minefields, firebases etc. and can send division-strength mechanized forces to wage unopposed blitzkrieg in the soft underbelly of the occupied zone.

My quick look at the media bigs suggests nothing of the sort.
The further they go, the fewer minefields and at some point, they get behind a couple of defensive lines and can move laterally easier than forward. As they penetrate deeper and especially in unexpected directions the mines will become fewer, the Russians need to move behind their front too. The Ukrainians have been clearing lots of mines and killing the Russian artillery trying to stop them using counter battery radars and long-range UAVs with much more accurate 155mm artillery that generally has a longer range than the Russian 152mm stuff, for longer reach they HIMARS them and their ammo supply. We will soon see how quickly the Russians can react to this and if they have the resources to do so because the Ukrainians are trying to spread them as thin as they can.
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
The further they go, the fewer minefields and at some point, they get behind a couple of defensive lines and can move laterally easier than forward. As they penetrate deeper and especially in unexpected directions the mines will become fewer, the Russians need to move behind their front too. The Ukrainians have been clearing lots of mines and killing the Russian artillery trying to stop them using counter battery radars and long-range UAVs with much more accurate 155mm artillery that generally has a longer range than the Russian 152mm stuff, for longer reach they HIMARS them and their ammo supply. We will soon see how quickly the Russians can react to this and if they have the resources to do so because the Ukrainians are trying to spread them as thin as they can.
Moving laterally, confined between unbreached defenses does not sound like a good idea. The best plan imo is to punch through, at which point they have the run of nearly uncontested territory.

They might even lure a fair chunk of what’s left of Russian air into the jaws of mobile air defenses.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Moving laterally, confined between unbreached defenses does not sound like a good idea. The best plan imo is to punch through, at which point they have the run of nearly uncontested territory.

They might even lure a fair chunk of what’s left of Russian air into the jaws of mobile air defenses.
The map I posted shows them doing just that, still penetrating the defenses and moving forward, so far, but the further they go the more their options for maneuver increase and if they can get to a battle of maneuver with better trained troops, it gives them a big advantage. The mass of mobiks are untrained manning defensive positions that will be cut off, the Ukrainians will seek to sow panic in the Russian rear with light fast-moving vehicles dashing around. The Russians have plenty of defensive works all the way back and ringing tomak, but they were dug by machines and are mostly unmanned fallback positions. The problem the Russians have is when they do fall back, they do it in groups, drones spot them, and artillery hammers them. I believe the defenses are Potemkin, dug by machines and they look impressive in Moscow, but defenses are only as good as those manning them, if anybody is. Most of the drone footage I've seen is sparsely manned machine dug trenches that go on for miles and are mostly empty.
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
The map I posted shows them doing just that, still penetrating the defenses and moving forward, so far, but the further they go the more their options for maneuver increase and if they can get to a battle of maneuver with better trained troops, it gives them a big advantage. The mass of mobiks are untrained manning defensive positions that will be cut off, the Ukrainians will seek to sow panic in the Russian rear with light fast-moving vehicles dashing around. The Russians have plenty of defensive works all the way back and ringing tomak, but they were dug by machines and are mostly unmanned fallback positions. The problem the Russians have is when they do fall back, they do it in groups, drones spot them, and artillery hammers them. I believe the defenses are Potemkin, dug by machines and they look impressive in Moscow, but defenses are only as good as those manning them, if anybody is. Most of the drone footage I've seen is sparsely manned machine dug trenches that go on for miles and are mostly empty.
The defensive works are less important than the amazing depth and density of the minefields. High UA equipment losses early in the counteroffensive showed how much the mines matter. The only way through those is slow hard nasty work. Ukrainian sappers are under tremendous pressure.

 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
The defensive works are less important than the amazing depth and density of the minefields. High UA equipment losses early in the counteroffensive showed how much the mines matter. The only way through those is slow hard nasty work. Ukrainian sappers are under tremendous pressure.

Mines are what the Russians are depending on, but they have to move behind their own lines too. So far the Ukrainians have turned it into an advantage by changing tactics and using the sappers as "bait" counter battery radar and highly accurate counter battery fire. They have been eliminating al lot of Russian guns and their ammo dumps since they started this tactic. They are set up so that the inaccurate Russian guns only get a round or two off before getting hammered or HIMARed, the poorly trained troops are in the artillery too and reports are Russian artillery officers are getting scarce.

Most of the mines are in the outer defensive belts and will be placed in front of the Ukrainian advance, the faster the advance the fewer the mines. Then there are the guys in the trucks laying them who will be targets for drones and drone directed artillery. The Russians have the same problem when they try to pull back or bring reinforcements or supplies to the front, drones spot them, and artillery hammers them long before they get there. The moble guns on track can move with the front faster and generally have a longer range, so they can have a long reach in the Russian rear as they try to get close to the action or put artillery in place.
 

printer

Well-Known Member
Now they have penetrated far enough, perhaps they will roll up the flanks of the Russian front, make them redeploy and then drive straight ahead to the sea of Azov by-passing built-up areas for the most part. They already made them redeploy with moves across the Dnieper near Crimea.

That language suggests that they have penetrated all defensive layers. That is not what the map shows.

Far enough is when they have torn a defensible miles-wide gap through the trenches, minefields, firebases etc. and can send division-strength mechanized forces to wage unopposed blitzkrieg in the soft underbelly of the occupied zone.

My quick look at the media bigs suggests nothing of the sort.
I posted a video at the time when the former Seal is discussed.

 

printer

Well-Known Member
Mines are what the Russians are depending on, but they have to move behind their own lines too. So far the Ukrainians have turned it into an advantage by changing tactics and using the sappers as "bait" counter battery radar and highly accurate counter battery fire. They have been eliminating al lot of Russian guns and their ammo dumps since they started this tactic. They are set up so that the inaccurate Russian guns only get a round or two off before getting hammered or HIMARed, the poorly trained troops are in the artillery too and reports are Russian artillery officers are getting scarce.

Most of the mines are in the outer defensive belts and will be placed in front of the Ukrainian advance, the faster the advance the fewer the mines. Then there are the guys in the trucks laying them who will be targets for drones and drone directed artillery. The Russians have the same problem when they try to pull back or bring reinforcements or supplies to the front, drones spot them, and artillery hammers them long before they get there. The moble guns on track can move with the front faster and generally have a longer range, so they can have a long reach in the Russian rear as they try to get close to the action or put artillery in place.
Sappers as bait? Wonder if the sappers know? Especially when one in twelve do no survive the nightly operation.

"Slyusar was in a great deal of pain from his back, as he had been for weeks. His commander in the 128th brigade could not afford for to him to take time to get treatment.

“On paper, our brigade has 30 sappers,” Slyusar said as he took out a range of mines that had recently been made safe. “In reality, it is 13. As for those who are active at the moment, it is five. I inject myself with a painkiller every day. There are two mistakes a sapper generally makes: stepping on a mine and becoming a sapper.”

The Ukrainian ministry of defence is understandably cagey about the precise number of sappers it has in its ranks. They are, after all, now a No 1 target for Russian artillery. It is known that there are five engineer demining batallions, which are broken up into 200 brigades of a similar size to Slyusar’s.

In May, the ministry of defence claimed there were 6,000 sappers in military service, but the number is probably significantly lower.

Just 200 have been trained to an international level that will enable them to act as mentors at home, according to defence ministry sources. Reznikov conceded that the level of manpower and resources was “extremely insufficient”.

Slyusar’s unit only has one set of night-vision goggles and a single pair of “spider boots” between 13 men. The ungainly footwear elevates the feet to give some protection from a blast. Two of his colleagues, Kostyantyn, 38, and Andriy, 39, had lost feet in the last fortnight.

 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Sappers as bait? Wonder if the sappers know? Especially when one in twelve do no survive the nightly operation.

"Slyusar was in a great deal of pain from his back, as he had been for weeks. His commander in the 128th brigade could not afford for to him to take time to get treatment.

“On paper, our brigade has 30 sappers,” Slyusar said as he took out a range of mines that had recently been made safe. “In reality, it is 13. As for those who are active at the moment, it is five. I inject myself with a painkiller every day. There are two mistakes a sapper generally makes: stepping on a mine and becoming a sapper.”

The Ukrainian ministry of defence is understandably cagey about the precise number of sappers it has in its ranks. They are, after all, now a No 1 target for Russian artillery. It is known that there are five engineer demining batallions, which are broken up into 200 brigades of a similar size to Slyusar’s.

In May, the ministry of defence claimed there were 6,000 sappers in military service, but the number is probably significantly lower.

Just 200 have been trained to an international level that will enable them to act as mentors at home, according to defence ministry sources. Reznikov conceded that the level of manpower and resources was “extremely insufficient”.

Slyusar’s unit only has one set of night-vision goggles and a single pair of “spider boots” between 13 men. The ungainly footwear elevates the feet to give some protection from a blast. Two of his colleagues, Kostyantyn, 38, and Andriy, 39, had lost feet in the last fortnight.

The mines have to be cleared anyway, a better way of saying it would be they are giving them highly accurate cover fire using counter battery radar. This has the side benefit of eliminating the Russian guns and fortunately for them the Russians don't shoot very well, or it would be a lot worse for them. Drones should be able to take care of the Russians using small arms from the trenches. They have to clear the mines, so make the best of it.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
I posted a video at the time when the former Seal is discussed.

In war the first casualty is the truth, it would be useful for the Ukrainians to make the Russian's think they were making a big move around Kherson with possible pontoon bridges and making a big stink about capturing that Russian major in the area. The want the Russians to be thinned out as much as they can and defending as much as possible. If unchecked this could be a dagger pointed at the throat of Crimea if they get it under fire control when the Russians are trying to get back in.
 

printer

Well-Known Member
In war the first casualty is the truth, it would be useful for the Ukrainians to make the Russian's think they were making a big move around Kherson with possible pontoon bridges and making a big stink about capturing that Russian major in the area. The want the Russians to be thinned out as much as they can and defending as much as possible. If unchecked this could be a dagger pointed at the throat of Crimea if they get it under fire control when the Russians are trying to get back in.
The area is marshland, hard to get vehicles across. The mudflats of the reservoir might be an interesting place to try. Mind you it would have to be a quick crossing as the Russians may notice them. Air cover would be good.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
He has been known to post false information. People have taken him to task on it, just saying take what he says with a pinch of salt.
In this case it was what the Russians think that is important and disinformation no matter the motive might be useful, he does make pretty maps and has neat graphics which helps his draw. Other military bloggers like the Estonian guy mentioned two bridges across the Dnieper too but was skeptical about the purpose of the attack. It is too hard to get tanks across there they are, all swamp and tanks would be required to take ground. They can be a real pain in the ass there though as commandos.
 
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