US estimates Ukraine military shortages could grow catastrophic by late March
By spring,
Ukraine faces a potentially catastrophic shortage of ammunition and air defenses that could effectively turn the tide of the war and lend
Russian President
Vladimir Putin a significant advantage, according to an internal U.S. estimate.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, two U.S. officials described "late March" as being a particularly crucial time for the fate of Ukrainian troops if Congress doesn't pass a new aid bill. A third official said it would be difficult to pinpoint exactly when the situation for Ukrainian troops could worsen but noted that the shortages were expected to grow more dire through spring.
"The juncture starts now and it just keeps getting worse progressively through the spring and into summer. So, this time period that we are entering is a critical time period," said a senior U.S. defense official.
The U.S. assessment comes nearly two years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and as support for Ukraine in Congress and
in the American public is fading. The once-steady flow of cash and weapons from the U.S. -- totaling some $44 billion since the invasion -- has mostly dried up. A separate $60 billion aid package requested by President Joe Biden and passed by the Senate is in limbo in the House as some Republicans loyal to Donald Trump question America's commitment to another far-away conflict entering its third year.
The White House this week directly blamed the hold up for Russia's victory in the eastern city of Avdiivka. The town fell to last weekend after Ukrainian troops there were forced to ration ammunition, handing the Kremlin its first major military victory since last May.
"It was because of congressional inaction," said White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby on Ukraine's loss. "And we've been warning Congress that if they didn't act, Ukraine would suffer losses on the battlefield and here you go. That's what happened this weekend."
Meanwhile, the Biden administration is trying to make the case to lawmakers that Ukraine isn't a lost cause.
The U.S. estimates Russian has spent up to $211 billion on military operations in the war and losing $10 billion in arms sales. That's in addition to the heavy casualties: Of the 360,000 Russian fighters available before the war began, some 315,000 Russian fighters have been killed or wounded.
A separate Dec. 8 estimate by the Defense Intelligence Agency, provided to Congress and described by a person familiar with the findings, concluded that Russia has lost some 2,200 tanks out of the 3,500 it had in stock before the war began.
Analysts say those losses haven't crippled Russian forces though because Moscow has been able to pull Soviet-era vehicles out of storage while also manufacturing new ones. At the same time, Russia's economic alliance with China has been able to help the country to shrug off many international sanctions, keeping its economy and military industrial base afloat.
In one recent
analysis, the International Institute for Strategic Studies didn't see any sign Russia was buckling under the weight of such hefty losses on the battlefield.
"Russia will be able to sustain its assault on Ukraine at current attrition rates for another 2–3 years, and maybe even longer," the institute wrote.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration is trying to make the case to lawmakers that Ukraine isn't a lost cause.
The U.S. estimates Russian has spent up to $211 billion on military operations in the war and losing $10 billion in arms sales. That's in addition to the heavy casualties: Of the 360,000 Russian fighters available before the war began, some 315,000 Russian fighters have been killed or wounded.
A separate Dec. 8 estimate by the Defense Intelligence Agency, provided to Congress and described by a person familiar with the findings, concluded that Russia has lost some 2,200 tanks out of the 3,500 it had in stock before the war began.
Analysts say those losses haven't crippled Russian forces though because Moscow has been able to pull Soviet-era vehicles out of storage while also manufacturing new ones. At the same time, Russia's economic alliance with China has been able to help the country to shrug off many international sanctions, keeping its economy and military industrial base afloat.
In one recent
analysis, the International Institute for Strategic Studies didn't see any sign Russia was buckling under the weight of such hefty losses on the battlefield.
"Russia will be able to sustain its assault on Ukraine at current attrition rates for another 2–3 years, and maybe even longer," the institute wrote.
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