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Without operational reserves, Russia will have to rely on "degraded forces" in the event of a Ukrainian breakthrough, the ISW said.
news.yahoo.com
Russian defenses are "likely brittle" amid the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive, the ISW said.
The think tank noted that Russian forces likely lack the reserves to rotate frontline units.
If Ukraine breaks through, Russia would have to rely on its "already degraded forces."
Russian defenses in Ukraine are "likely brittle" amid the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive, according to a think tank.
In an update on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Institute for the Study of War said its analysis was supported by the recent dismissal of top Russian general Major General Ivan Popov, who said he was removed from his position after raising questions about mass Russian casualties from Ukrainian artillery and a lack of support for Russian forces.
Popov reportedly claimed that he had appealed to his superiors to rotate troops and relieve those who had fought on the frontlines for a long time.
The ISW said Popov's comments reinforced their previous assessments and indicated that rotations and reinforcements are needed to sustain Russian defenses in western Zaporizhzhia. It also noted that Russia's lack of reserve troops meant Popov's appeal was likely futile from the outset.
The think tank said that without any reserves to rotate in, Russian forces would have to rely on "already degraded forces" in the event of a Ukrainian breakthrough.
It added that the high rate of Russian casualties from artillery fire was likely a result of a Ukrainian effort to wear down Russian forces in the south of the country.
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The former commander said Russia faced high losses and soon "there will be no one to stop the enemy."
www.newsweek.com
Military blogger Igor Girkin has delivered another scathing assessment of Russia's battlefield chances in Ukraine, saying that Kyiv's forces could break through in their counteroffensive on the southern front.
The former commander, also known as Strelkov, played a key role in the war in Ukraine's Donbas region from 2014. He has repeatedly condemned Russia's military high command during its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which he supports.
In a video post on his Telegram channel tweeted by War Translated, Girkin lamented how in some directions, Russian troop levels were only at 70 percent of what they ought to be, while in other areas of the most fierce battles "it is significantly less."
While he said this was better than troop levels at the end of last summer "when 20 percent staffing of units was considered normal," Russian losses were not being replenished by reinforcements and reservists from the rear.
"If urgent measures are not taken, the enemy, unfortunately, has a chance to gnaw through our defence in Zaporizhzhia and it will be then very difficult to stop them," Girkin said.
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