War

Friendly_Grower

Well-Known Member
Like America they have history, it's more recent and it was nasty, both with Hitler and later with Stalin for those in the east. They have come to appreciate liberal democracy and know what it means as much as Americans. They thought they could live with the bear next door after we civilized him a bit, but now they all know how bad Vlad is. They also know how weak he is and that they can whip him conventionally by themselves, especially now that German has gone strong. Courage is contagious and so is hope, Vlad's blunders present great danger, but also great opportunity too and big changes in Europe are underway.

I believe the Ukrainians will whip the Russians and eject them from most of the country including the south with in a couple of months. Both the Russian army in Ukraine and the Russian economy will collapse by then, but they could hold areas in the east, there will be no peace while they are on Ukrainian territory. I believe the Ukrainians will do this the old fashioned way, by raising and training an army several times larger than the Russian forces available and I think we are seeing the first graduates of that army in action with the recent offensives. They will defeat Vlad's several small armies in succession, cutting them off and forcing surrender or destruction. Those forces that retreat towards the border and set up defensively will be held largely by reserves, while the army moves on to the next front.

Belarus could be the next domino to fall and is ripe for revolution or a coup, if they attack Ukraine it will be game over for the regime.

Yes indeed! I was impressed with Germany upping it's military. Also I was listening to why NATO should reinforce Poland as Poland has been saying for a long time. That would be because it's the "Front-Line" for NATO.

I don't know about Belarus. I think Western style Democracy is popular but Russia crushed that.
Perhaps the real enemy of Russia is functioning democracies around it?
 
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CCGNZ

Well-Known Member
If NATO wasn't training Ukrainian soldier en mass before, but giving say seminars and specialized training on weapons systems, it will be now. I would be shocked if NATO or EU countries were not assisting in training thousands of Ukrainians at their facilities in the EU. I think the experts concluded awhile back that this was the way to go and I think the US and EU want Vlad decisively beaten so that he is weakened as much as possible at home. If they want to get rid of Vlad, then kicking his ass out of Ukraine will help a lot and the way to do that is with a big infantry army, that is well equipped with modern weapons, infantry is king again on the battle field and turn tanks into junk with shoulder launched weapons
What this conflict has shone a light on is that armor has to be supported by dismounted infantry,not columns of tanks and APC's riding single file tight to each other on roads like animals on a conveyor belt in a slaughterhouse.The infantry fans out and defends against the opposing infantry that wants to ambush the armor,modern infantry anti air and armor light weapons have come along way admittedly but the Russian's tactics have been incredibly flawed.
 

Friendly_Grower

Well-Known Member
I'm not quite sure of Crimea's history,I believe it, it may have been Russian territory initially,but then was cede to Ukraine in the Soviet days where Russia would never foreseen losing access to it,So I'm not positive,but it's strategic access is undeniable,I can't see Putin just giving it back barring a total say uncle Russian defeat,this is THE most important asset in this whole land grab gambit by Russia,far more meaningful than the Donbass region.
Oh man. YouTube has some nice documentaries on the history of the region.
Very True that many "empires" have grabbed land that is the modern Ukraine and Poland for that matter.

Perhaps for that very reason this Putin's War is very unwanted by everyone but Putin.
I mean Russia is now Nuclear so the level of destruction would be insane. It would set the Human race back perhaps 300 years in Europe I was thinking.

I'm all for leaving the borders for Ukraine and Poland just where they are and let prosperity and democracy shine the light!
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Of course they want to know,they'll want to know why the world has suddenly turned their backs to Russia and why Russia is now the blacksheep of the international comm.,one man's strategic follies has caused this result and if he can be removed from the Kremlin without doomsday it will benefit mankind. Russia has been an enigma as far as transfer of power is concerned,and the best result is a more moderate,reform minded leader.who seeks to bring Russia's economy more up to standard and holds less hostility towards the West. A leader who can shed Russia's paranoia of being invaded and I'll tell you what,if Russia ever suffers a land grab by an adversary,it will come from Mr.Xi and not NATO IMO.
INHO the sanctions should stay on until democracy emerges and whoever crawls to the top had better understand that and make some moves in that direction to get movement on sanctions. America and the EU will want to keep Russia as weak as possible until they come around. It might not be as long as many people think, they are not starting from scratch this time and have the form of a liberal democracy, but not the substance. They also have an economy this time, shattered though it may be, it is an economic foundation that can be built upon.

We have been tolerating responsible authoritarians like China, but I think we might want to look at the policy. We should encourage liberal democracies and shift trade to those places over time. Move that only democratic countries who meet UN standards are allowed to vote in the UN and get rid of the security council, others can be observers, but they don't sit at the table with the big boys, even if nuked up.
 
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DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
What this conflict has shone a light on is that armor has to be supported by dismounted infantry,not columns of tanks and APC's riding single file tight to each other on roads like animals on a conveyor belt in a slaughterhouse.The infantry fans out and defends against the opposing infantry that wants to ambush the armor,modern infantry anti air and armor light weapons have come along way admittedly but the Russian's tactics have been incredibly flawed.
True, but they didn't have enough infantry for that and tanks attempting a blitzkrieg attack would be slaughtered anyway. The idea here is for the Ukrainians to build a much larger infantry army than the Russians, then they would kill their screening troops. Armor can't make large advances into the enemy rear anymore followed up by troops. Now they must dismount and go at a walking pace, terrain make a big difference, open ground and long distances favor tanks, urban environments favor NLAWs and chew up troops. The point is the tank is no longer the king of the battle field and stingers took out close air support. When they can backpack switchblades, infantry can defeat artillery too, the God of war. They also don't mass troops or tanks anymore (except the Russians) they have tank hunting teams.

A very important factor is morale and tactical doctrine, the Ukrainians use NATO tactical doctrine that places a lot of emphasis on the individual and everybody understanding the mission. We have a strong NCO core of smart, experienced, career guys who run things on the ground, the Russians have no such thing. We are tactically flexible and go with the flow, they are rigid and objective orientated. NATO tactical doctrine is perfect for the highly motivated Ukrainians, who are encouraged and free to use their initiative and imagination to defeat the enemy.
 

Bagginski

Well-Known Member
I was reading some shit about why Putin was so confident that it would take just a couple days to take over. Supposedly the FSB was given billions in untraceable cash over the years to bribe Ukrainian defence officials etc to not put up resistance when the invasion happened. They had been stealing it all and lying to Pootin. Then when he told them he was going in they freaked then leaked Pootin's plans to the US hoping that when Biden beaked off about it like he did Pootin would change his mind. Now they're all running scared.

Tried to find the link but no luck. Biden did seem to hit the nail on the head about the invasion before it happened tho so sound plausible to me.

:peace:
*MORE* plausible than our intelligence services reading the signs spread all over Europe? Not really!
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Of course they want to know,they'll want to know why the world has suddenly turned their backs to Russia and why Russia is now the blacksheep of the international comm.,one man's strategic follies has caused this result and if he can be removed from the Kremlin without doomsday it will benefit mankind. Russia has been an enigma as far as transfer of power is concerned,and the best result is a more moderate,reform minded leader.who seeks to bring Russia's economy more up to standard and holds less hostility towards the West. A leader who can shed Russia's paranoia of being invaded and I'll tell you what,if Russia ever suffers a land grab by an adversary,it will come from Mr.Xi and not NATO IMO.
You just know how it would work too, there will be a rivalry for control or influence in the Stans of central Asia, some of which have oil and the others for pipelines right to Iran. They might play nice with their Muslim minorities in western China to achieve this. Like Vlad did in Ukraine a province of Siberia might want to "break away" and form an independent country, with Chinese covert help, it will be an "independence " movement, and it might have popular support, as a way of instantly getting out from under sanctions. There will be no invasions of Russian territory, why bother when they can profitably trade with the new places with in their soft and hard power sphere. Russia only had hard power and that is being destroyed on the battlefield of Ukraine, China with the world's second largest economy, has both, like America.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
I was reading some shit about why Putin was so confident that it would take just a couple days to take over. Supposedly the FSB was given billions in untraceable cash over the years to bribe Ukrainian defence officials etc to not put up resistance when the invasion happened. They had been stealing it all and lying to Pootin. Then when he told them he was going in they freaked then leaked Pootin's plans to the US hoping that when Biden beaked off about it like he did Pootin would change his mind. Now they're all running scared.

Tried to find the link but no luck. Biden did seem to hit the nail on the head about the invasion before it happened tho so sound plausible to me.

:peace:
Seems plausible, especially if they had Zelenskiy down for a few million when they did the paperwork for the accounting department! The funny thing is when ya think about it, the CIA probably can blackmail most of the Russian military industrial complex because of massive corruption. Perhaps they bought some of that equipment on eBay and have the goods on them all, from the minister of defense to the colonels in the army selling equipment. Those who aren't corrupt are even better agents, they are the patriots and the most dangerous to Vlad and the rest of them. The CIA will be recruiting many patriots in the future, they will need help in getting rid of Vlad. Soon the spy master's empire will be full of spies, revolutionaries and coup plotters, he sure as shit is no strategist.
 

Roger A. Shrubber

Well-Known Member
They started walking that back as soon as he said it. What he meant to say. . . . . was that poot-poot can't wield power outside Russia.
i think he said exactly what he meant to say, and it's high motherfucking time someone started saying it...i say even after Ukraine kicks them the fuck out of their country and entirely humiliates putin, we refuse to drop ANY sanctions till putin is ousted...fuck putin, and fuck placating him any more
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
If nothing else, small bombs from quiet drones could be massive morale killers.
One other important point about commercial drones and RC planes. There are no export restrictions on this stuff and any company or country can donate or sell it with no red tape. So selling 100 big agri-drones wouldn't raise an eyebrow and we most likely won't hear of it. If they could be as effective at night as hundreds of Javelins would be during the day, they would quickly strip the Russians of armor, vehicles and artillery pieces within range and that can be easily extended too.

So no red tape and quick access to high tech that can be used as a weapon of war with a global community of industrial and logistical support.
 
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Roger A. Shrubber

Well-Known Member
Me too and so would the ones doing it or trying it! Remember the Russians have no way of dealing with these and they can be easily modified to see at night and in infrared A fleet of these properly deployed just dropping bombs manually at night could make a big difference, the Russians usually park at night and sleep in a commandeered house close by. Their only defense would be to park in garages at night and they might be tracked by other drones when they do, First bomb blows the roof off and the special one destroys the tank inside garage.

As I said they have an experienced military unit and civilian support infrastructure, now they have donated equipment and if they request something specific they will get it ASAP, sometimes free.
a tank won't fit in a residential garage...
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
why no? everything he just said is quite possible with existing tech. if they're on a direct satellite link, they're unjammable, and very hard to trace the signal back
They could be starlink controlled in the future, but they can use GPS to precisely hit or land on a target and fly autonomously using GPS. I have a GPS drone and often fly with 12 or more satellites because it uses other foreign GPS systems too. This cheap little drone with an older GPS system often lands back a couple of feet from where it took off, when I hit the panic button, RTH!
 

Roger A. Shrubber

Well-Known Member
I was reading some shit about why Putin was so confident that it would take just a couple days to take over. Supposedly the FSB was given billions in untraceable cash over the years to bribe Ukrainian defence officials etc to not put up resistance when the invasion happened. They had been stealing it all and lying to Pootin. Then when he told them he was going in they freaked then leaked Pootin's plans to the US hoping that when Biden beaked off about it like he did Pootin would change his mind. Now they're all running scared.

Tried to find the link but no luck. Biden did seem to hit the nail on the head about the invasion before it happened tho so sound plausible to me.

:peace:
i'd very much like to see confirmation of that somehow, but it is entirely plausible
 

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
It is a shame that instead of focussing on the entire speech, that made it clear that Russians are not the enemy, and that it is the mad dictator that is using the power the Russian people have been forced to give him to do the truly horrific things Putin has done to stay in power, the focus is on the understandable feelings that come with seeing more than 10 million people becoming homeless due to Putin's actions.

But even if it causes a little cleanup from Biden's administration, it is still far, far better than we got from the last POTUS (I am sure people snow flaking about Biden's plea to a greater power stopping this madman, were just as quick to point out any escalation that these were).

Screen Shot 2022-03-27 at 6.00.15 AM.pngScreen Shot 2022-03-27 at 6.00.46 AM.pngScreen Shot 2022-03-27 at 6.01.10 AM.png
 

printer

Well-Known Member
Ukrainians take on ‘wall of propaganda’ on Chinese social media

  • Some are posting in Mandarin on the latest developments in the Russian invasion
  • It’s an effort to ‘show people what’s going on’ and to win public support in China
As Ukrainian forces fight on the front lines to halt Russia’s military advance, another battle is taking place in Chinese cyberspace.
Ukrainians who can speak Mandarin are taking to Chinese social media platforms in an effort to provide information about the Russian invasion and win public support in China.
They are translating the latest developments in the war into Chinese, including information on casualties and analysis, and posting it on their accounts on popular social media networks like WeChat and Weibo.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3171887/ukrainians-take-wall-propaganda-chinese-social-media?module=top_picks&pgtype=article

Need to subscribe to see the rest but good enough to see it is a story.
 
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