Roger A. Shrubber
Well-Known Member
west? as in their destination?....if so, it seems they were mistaken
War
- Thread starter captainmorgan
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DIY-HP-LED
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"I saw the troops going in!": The turning tide of war in Ukraine • FRANCE 24 English
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Heard an expert on it today and he said that because the Russians lack precision munitions, railway tracks are hard to hit and quick to repair. Hitting train stations kills civilians, but doesn't do much to stop trains, even electric ones can use diesel's in a pinch. Hitting rail bridges will make a difference, but they lack the precision for that with a missile, they can hit sorting yards and such, but they are hard to damage with single strikes. A 4'8.5" track is hard to hit for the Russians from hundreds of kilometers away and a pretty tough item to damage without a direct hit.Russia's attacks on Ukraine's supply lines are intensifying. Ukraine's national railway hasn't buckled
The smell of burnt wire and rubber still lingered in the air around the railway power station on the outskirts of Lviv Wednesday morning, hours after the blaze was extinguished. A group of investigators was collecting debris from the Russian rockets that struck this place the evening before. Now it serves as evidence of Russia's attempts to systematically destroy key infrastructure.
The Lviv power station was among six railway facilities in central and western Ukraine targeted by Russian forces on Tuesday evening, according to the chairman of Ukrainian Railways Olexander Kamyshin. The coordinated strikes briefly knocked out power in parts of the region and caused long delays to more than 40 trains.
Tuesday's attack marks the latest in a series of recent attacks on the country's infrastructure, with the railway network now one of Russia's key targets.
On Wednesday, Russia said it believed any weapons -- including NATO equipment -- arriving into and moving within Ukraine were targets, according to Russian state-run news agency RIA Novosti.
Five train stations in western and central Ukraine were hit in the space of an hour on April 25. Two days later, a missile struck a rail and road bridge across the Dniester Estuary that links the southern port city of Odesa with the country's far southwest region. Then on Friday, another important railway bridge was blown up near the town of Sloviansk in the eastern Donetsk region.
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Wednesday that Russian forces were "attempting to hit what we assess to be critical infrastructure targets out towards the West" in Ukraine including "electrical power, transportation hubs, that kind of thing."
Kirby said that despite the most recent attacks, the US is still able to "flow" military assistance into the region, including "weapons systems" and other materials.
The national railway has always played a crucial economic role in Ukraine, transporting agriculture and heavy industry exports across the country's vast territory. But since the Russian invasion began in late February, the train network has become Ukraine's lifeline to the outside world: It's how weapons, supplies and humanitarian aid get into the country.
For the more than 230,000 Ukrainians working for the railway network, the recent attacks have been a reminder of how dangerous -- and vital -- their jobs have become. "We are worried. When we hear the siren, we have to run to the shelter. Just yesterday, two missiles hit nearby," Andriy, a railroad worker on one of the lines leading from Poland to Lviv, told CNN. Andriy declined to give his last name due to concerns for his safety. The railroad is a strategic asset and its employees are not officially authorized to speak to the media.
As the railroad plays such an important role in the conflict, Ukrainians have also used it tactfully, striking against key parts of their own network in Russian-occupied areas of the country. Last Thursday, Ukrainian forces blew up a bridge that connects the Crimean Peninsula to a part of southern Ukraine occupied by the Russians in an attempt to disrupt their flow of weapons. Serhiy Bratchuk, a spokesman for the Odesa military administration, said Russian forces were using the bridge to "supply weapons and fuel from Crimea."
Russia intensifies attacks on railways, taking aim at Ukraine's lifeline to the outside world | CNN
Ukraine's railways have always been crucial to the economy. Since Russia invaded, the network has become a crucial conduit for weapons, supplies and humanitarian aid -- and one that is now increasingly under attack.www.cnn.com
printer
Well-Known Member
Uptick in Combat Missions Signals Changing Role for Russia’s Air Force in Ukraine
A spate of airstrikes by Russian combat jets in eastern Ukraine last week was a sign that Russia’s Air Force may be changing tack after failing to achieve aerial superiority over Ukraine, analysts told The Moscow Times.
Russian pilots have largely taken a risk-averse approach to air combat in the two-month war, choosing to attack ground targets inside Ukraine with long-range missiles rather than making themselves vulnerable to anti-aircraft missile systems with long flights over enemy territory.
Uptick in Combat Missions Signals Changing Role for Russia’s Air Force in Ukraine - The Moscow Times
A spate of airstrikes by Russian combat jets in eastern Ukraine last week was a sign that Russia’s Air Force may be changing tack after failing to achieve aerial superiority over Ukraine, analysts told The Moscow Times. Russian pilots have largely taken a risk-averse approach to air combat in...
Once this becomes a war rather than a 'special operation' the russians will be willing to take more chances and losses.
printer
Well-Known Member
The general was accused without "Azart"
Frauds with radio stations worth billions of rubles have disappeared from the case of the former deputy chief of the General Staff approved by the Prosecutor General's Office
As it became known to Kommersant, the Prosecutor General's Office, having approved the charge, sent to court for consideration on the merits a high-profile criminal case on alleged fraud and corruption in the supply of equipment to the armed forces, the main defendant in which is the former Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces Khalil Arslanov. The defense of the latter has already prepared a petition to return the case to supervision, since it does not include all the charges that were initially incriminated to the colonel-general. As a result, for example, it turned out that Mr. Arslanov was accused of taking a bribe for actions that were not in the file. He categorically denies any guilt.
www-kommersant-ru.translate.goog
How the cookie crumbles in Russia.
Frauds with radio stations worth billions of rubles have disappeared from the case of the former deputy chief of the General Staff approved by the Prosecutor General's Office
As it became known to Kommersant, the Prosecutor General's Office, having approved the charge, sent to court for consideration on the merits a high-profile criminal case on alleged fraud and corruption in the supply of equipment to the armed forces, the main defendant in which is the former Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces Khalil Arslanov. The defense of the latter has already prepared a petition to return the case to supervision, since it does not include all the charges that were initially incriminated to the colonel-general. As a result, for example, it turned out that Mr. Arslanov was accused of taking a bribe for actions that were not in the file. He categorically denies any guilt.
Генерала обвинили без «Азарта»
Из утвержденного Генпрокуратурой дела бывшего замначальника Генштаба исчезли махинации с радиостанциями на миллиарды рублей
www-kommersant-ru.translate.goog
How the cookie crumbles in Russia.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Looks like the Russian air force is in for some heavy losses if they fly low over Ukrainian held territory, especially if the Ukrainians know what they are gunning for. They have manpads of various types and SAM3s, now that Uncle Sam is giving them what they want, it will also include better AA missile systems. Also the Germans just sent a large number of mobile AA guns to Ukraine that would be a nasty surprise for any low flying jet. Electronic engineers and computer techs can be trained on such systems much more quickly than regular recruits, so I don't imagine they will send just anybody to train on them, there are plenty of trained brains lugging a gun there.Uptick in Combat Missions Signals Changing Role for Russia’s Air Force in Ukraine
A spate of airstrikes by Russian combat jets in eastern Ukraine last week was a sign that Russia’s Air Force may be changing tack after failing to achieve aerial superiority over Ukraine, analysts told The Moscow Times.
Russian pilots have largely taken a risk-averse approach to air combat in the two-month war, choosing to attack ground targets inside Ukraine with long-range missiles rather than making themselves vulnerable to anti-aircraft missile systems with long flights over enemy territory.
But with depleting stocks of high-precision missiles, infantry shortages and the pressure of the Kremlin’s demands for success in eastern Ukraine, Russia looks likely to rely more heavily on air strikes in the weeks to come.
“Russia has been really conservative with its use of tactical aviation in the conflict, so I think we’re at a point now where they are taking a different approach,” Dara Masicott, a senior policy researcher at the U.S.-based Rand Corporation, told The Moscow Times.
Despite predictions Russia would be able to overwhelm Ukraine’s much smaller Air Force and achieve air superiority early on in the war, the expected air blitz never materialized. This failure has apparently reduced Russia’s capacity to conduct sophisticated military maneuvers, left key ground operations unsupported and resulted in heavy losses.
Even though Russia’s fixed-wing combat aircraft fleet was 15 times the size of Ukraine’s at the start of the war, Ukrainian aircraft are still flying sorties.
“Fighter, bomber and assault aircraft of the [Ukrainian] air forces continue to perform tasks in the airspace of Ukraine,” the Ukrainian Defense Ministry said in a statement last week.
Russia’s failure to cripple Ukrainian air power can be attributed to a lack of organization and operational-level incompetency, according to analysts.
“At an individual pilot level, the Russians aren't as good as we thought,” said Robert Bell, a former NATO official and professor at Georgia Tech Institute.
To destroy enemy assets and establish air superiority, an air force needs to be able to mount complex air operations involving many planes, analysts said. Instead, Russian jets have generally been seen in groups no larger than two, flying at low altitudes and at night.
Having retreated from northern Ukraine last month following a bungled attempt to capture Kyiv, Russian forces have been concentrated along a 300-mile front in Ukraine’s east.
Fighting along one axis of advance typically makes air operations simpler to coordinate.
Russian air sorties are up over 150%, to about 300 a day, since the shift to the east, according to Sam Cranny-Evans, a military analyst at Britain’s Royal United Services Institute think tank.
Signs of Russia ramping up its air operations include air raids on the badly damaged port city of Mariupol and recent attacks on the northeastern city of Kharkhiv. Footage released Tuesday by the Russian Defense Ministry showed a low-flying SU-24m bomber dropping unguided missiles – also known as ‘dumb bombs’ for their lack of precision – in an unspecified area, likely eastern Ukraine.
Many videos recorded by local residents have emerged online of Russian jets operating at low altitude over eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region.
But these operations are still much rarer than many expected and remain limited to areas close to air space controlled by Russia.
One explanation for Russian caution may be the large quantity of short-range air defense missiles supplied to Ukrainian forces by Western countries since the start of the invasion.
“The Russians may remember their experience in Afghanistan, where the Stinger [missile] denied them dominance in the air,” James Lewis, an analyst at the Strategic and International Studies Institute in Washington, told The Moscow Times.
The Ukrainians have destroyed at least 26 Russian combat aircraft and 39 helicopters since the beginning of the invasion, according to Oryx, an intelligence blog that tracks Russia's military losses using open source analysis.
While shooting down Russian aircraft may be critical for Ukrainian morale, these losses actually do little to reduce Russian capability.
In addition to hundreds of fighter aircraft, including the new Sukhoi SU-57 stealth fighter jet, Russia has over 122 SU-34 bombers and 360 attack helicopters capable of carrying anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles, according to a report by the Center for Naval Analysis.
"The Russian Air Force is one of the most powerful, high-tech and maneuverable components of the modern Russian army,” Russian President Vladimir Putin boasted last November at a meeting with military commanders and defense industry executives.
Quite why Russia has held much of its air power in reserve is unclear, with some analysts suggesting it is to preserve aircraft in the event of a wider escalation with NATO.
A U.S. defense official described Russia’s offensive in the Donbas as “very tepid” Monday, suggesting Russia was being “risk averse” in an attempt to minimize losses.
But, as Russia’s stocks of high-precision munitions dwindle, its Air Force will likely need to adopt more aggressive tactics and use more unguided missiles. This will require pilots to get closer to their targets and take more risks with Ukraine’s anti-aircraft defense systems.
The reported new commander of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, Alexander Dvornikov, was nicknamed the “butcher of Syria” for authorizing just such an approach in civilian areas of the Middle Eastern country during the Russian military intervention to prop up the regime of Bashar Assad.
“The approach you’re going to see is the approach you saw in Syria, where the majority of weapons were unguided,” analyst Massicot predicted.
That will likely mean not only more civilian deaths, but an increased attrition rate for the Russian Air Force and greater destruction on the ground.
“You’re going to have a lot more cities that look like Mariupol,” Massicot said.
Uptick in Combat Missions Signals Changing Role for Russia’s Air Force in Ukraine - The Moscow Times
A spate of airstrikes by Russian combat jets in eastern Ukraine last week was a sign that Russia’s Air Force may be changing tack after failing to achieve aerial superiority over Ukraine, analysts told The Moscow Times. Russian pilots have largely taken a risk-averse approach to air combat in...www.themoscowtimes.com
Railways are a hard target to hit, easy to repair and the further into Ukraine they are, the greater the risk to planes and pilots. I think the Russians will do some damage, but will not impact logistics greatly. They will take heavy losses trying IMHO.
printer
Well-Known Member
Protecting 100 miles of rail might not be easy. I read an article today, no idea which one as I have read a lot, the Russians hit 15 rail lines. Then the crews have got to go out and repair it with nothing moving. You make it sound like they are totally inept. Even the recent news says the russians are hitting these places. What do you not understand?
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DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
I worked in the rail industry and know a thing or two about it. They have not been mounting the scale of attacks of sufficient accuracy to have a major impact on logistics IMHO and vital points like bridges can be defended. Hitting something with a dumb bomb using a jet requires low level and accuracy, that makes them vulnerable to the most plentiful AA weapons the Ukrainians have. Russian pilots have been getting less than 8 hours of flying a month, barely enough to maintain competency. Maintenance issues are even more critical in the air force and they are even more vulnerable to corruption than the army. They are not totally inept, but close, operating over enemy territory will be an experience for them, which is why they avoided it.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Railways have 50 foot sections of tracks complete with ties and old flat cars carry dozens of them. The damaged section is removed along with the ties and the new section popped in with a crane and bolted or thermite welded into place. Repairs to rail lines can be done quickly this way and they have cars of track sections placed at strategic locations. Derailments and torn up tracks happen regularly and this is the usual solution to get things moving quickly. One of my jobs was to go to derailments and assess the damage to equipment and I've seen this done many times.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Russia targets supply routes as the U.S. and NATO allies pump weapons into Ukraine
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Putin would 'think twice' about using strategic nuclear weapons
Former US Army Vice Chief of Staff General Jack Keane says he doesn't think the chances of Russia using strategic nuclear weapons are very high.
Former US Army Vice Chief of Staff General Jack Keane says he doesn't think the chances of Russia using strategic nuclear weapons are very high.
printer
Well-Known Member
My dad worked at Canadian Pacific in repairs. A rail line went right past our farm. Yes, it is not the end of the world having a section of track hit. But the repair crew has to go out and fix the section. They could be the sitting duck while doing it. The trains with the armaments have to be off the track until it is repaired otherwise they might be sitting ducks also. No reason the Russians can not do it the old fashion way.
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DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
According to reports (PBS) they haven't hit any arms shipments of significance yet, apparently many of their missile attacks are inaccurate. It will be an interesting couple of weeks coming up, I can't see this being a long drawn out static war as many are saying, the Russians will collapse IMHO. The Ukrainians might be outnumbered in equipment, but they have many more trained boots on the ground who are using far better tactics with a better command structure. Equipment is pouring in, there are limits and the Ukrainians appear to be using their munitions wisely. Vlad had 85% of his BTGs in Ukraine according to credible reports and has lost around 25% of his forces so far with a current attrition rate of around 2000 Russians casualties a day. Current estimates are 20,000+ dead and the standard formula is three times as many out with wounds or captured.
printer
Well-Known Member
And that is where I think you are wrong, this will be a drawn out war. It will end like the cold war did, the one who runs out of money fighting it loses. In that case it was Russia. This time around they have Germany giving them $1B a day. Russia is not about finesse, they are about raining down as much as they can and turning everything to dust. Their weakness was their corruption. I posted an article from their news on the conviction of one of their Putin 150 who skimmed off of the money to modernize their military radio network. Russia is rotten to the core. The only thing saving them is the massive stockpile of armaments from before Putin's time. As long as they have the shells and the manpower to fire them they will continue. They are dug in where they are, they may not be advancing but everyone says it will take more blood than the Ukrainians have to shed to take back the areas they have. How many casualties do the Ukrainians have? They do not say. But that would not be something they would want the Russians from knowing. This is going to be a war of attrition. Will the West put itself on a war footing for the next year when Ukraine can stop the war and roll back the Russians to the line before February?
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
I think the precision weapons the Ukrainians are getting will make a difference in breaking through fortified positions. In any case I think the next couple of weeks we will see what the Ukrainians can do. As far as I know Vlad has nothing left to throw in on the ground manpower wise and won't have a force trained enough for months, provided he declares war and mobilizes. It is gonna cost and will be no cake walk, but given the resources I think their aim is to defeat this army before the next one can be deployed. Vlad's aim appears to be to go all out before the Ukrainians can deploy modern arms and try to slow that deployment down as much as he can. Once the Russian army collapses or there is a breakthrough, panic will ensue I figure.
Military losses mount in Ukraine as war rages on
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
U.S. Targeting Intelligence Is Helping Ukraine Find Russian Generals to Kill, Officials Say
In addition to real-time targeting information, the U.S. is now reportedly supplying drones that can be used to identify and kill individual soldiers.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
One can see why it's easy for Uncle Sam or the EU to get Turkey's cooperation, aside from Erdogan's canal. Turkey gets 90% of it's grain from Ukraine and most of it's oil from Russia and Erdogan has his nuts in a bit of a vice. If Ukraine won the war, took Crimea and provided a sea shortcut to Europe through the Black sea, things might turn around for Turkey economically and Erdogan's canal to the Black sea would have a roaring trade.
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www.aljazeera.com
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Turkey’s inflation rate soars to almost 70 percent
The consumer price index has risen by 69.97 percent year-on-year in April compared with 61.14 percent in March.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
I think they biggest consequence of this war, provided it doesn't go nuclear, is the myth of Russian invincibility inherited from the mighty Red army has been destroyed. Russia's neighbors and former Soviet subjects are recognizing this and becoming bolder in asserting their rights and sovereignty. Many are small and weak, but they could band together in an alliance that with outside help could make Russia think twice. Depending on how stupid and desperate Vlad is, his army in Ukraine will be either mauled severely or destroyed over the summer IMHO. His equipment cannot be replaced and there is every indication that what he has left is mostly junk. He might be able to build manpower over the next few months, but the heart will be ripped out of his military organization and it will take years to rebuild, much less reform.
As Russia grows weaker, others will take advantage of the situation to gain independence and countries like China will seek geopolitical gains in central Asia. Vlad plan of bullshit revolutions and breakaway provinces will be used against him to eventually break up Russia by other powers. People in far away places will rediscover their native cultures and many ethnic Russians might want to get out from under sanctions and join the 21st century. With outside help they might just succeed, or at least cause Moscow blood and treasure trying to impose imperialism.
As Russia grows weaker, others will take advantage of the situation to gain independence and countries like China will seek geopolitical gains in central Asia. Vlad plan of bullshit revolutions and breakaway provinces will be used against him to eventually break up Russia by other powers. People in far away places will rediscover their native cultures and many ethnic Russians might want to get out from under sanctions and join the 21st century. With outside help they might just succeed, or at least cause Moscow blood and treasure trying to impose imperialism.
BudmanTX
Well-Known Member
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
It is a smart move, hold them where they are attacking from dug in positions and let them soak up casualties. Then because they have the most troops concentrated where they are attacking, attack them where they are not dug in and preferably along their supply routes. They just need to get in artillery range to cut road and rail links to the south. Apparently most of the artillery promised recently is in the field being used, the crews were trained in the EU while the paperwork was being done, so this might have something to do with Ukrainian attacks. I posted an announcement from Zelenskiy about it, he mentioned a new phase of the war too. I noticed things are pretty green in Ukraine, that will provide lot's of cover and lately the Russian drones have been dropping like flies.
Things are flowing in, but there are production limits and from what I've seen the Ukrainians understand this and are practicing fire discipline, conserving ammo and resources. It will be a grind, even after they eject them from most of the country this summer and unfortunately will cost many Ukrainians their lives. I figure the next couple of weeks will be critical and we will see what the Ukrainians can do with modern arms after wearing the Russians down. I think some of the better territorial units will be in the front lines on this push, they recently changed the law to allow them to operate outside of their own provinces. Some of these territorial units are as good as regular army troops, others are old guys who man check points and generally back up the army.