War

Roger A. Shrubber said:
they took out one tank...then the others spread out and returned fire, and the video cut away. i didn't see any of them running out of the area.
from that video, i don't know if the Ukraines survived, or if they got killed by return fire. i don't know if the column was broken, or just momentarily disrupted. there were a lot more russian vehicles coming close behind those...a lot more...
they're going to have to do better than trading one for one, they don't have the man power to play that game against the russians.
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They will soon have much more combat power than the Russians as they field new NATO or consultant trained units and have a lot more anti tank weapons. I saw a longer version of that video, it was an anti tank weapon attack and I only saw a couple of NLAWs used, I believe that column was retreating. Much of the news is hype, but if you listen to the pros and look at the situation the Russians are in with 100% of forces in country, it becomes clear they are fucked. They will seek to trap as many deep inside Ukraine as they can with future operations. I'd blow that bridge on the Belarus Ukraine border that feeds the whole offensive on the west side of Kyiv. At the same time I'd make them think there was a revolution going on in Belarus and they were cut off while attacking their rear and everywhere else with overwhelming force, or trapping them in a pocket(s) and negotiating surrender terms. Once that is taken care of, like Napoleon, leave local militia and concentrate force the same way in another place.
 
If you look at northern Ukraine, just south of Chernobyl on the main highway, there is a vital bridge across the Pripyat river, that if blown, would cut off the entire Russian army west of the Dnieper river from resupply or support. I figure eventually we should hear more about this, they need to destroy it, or maybe not and might want to keep it for an offensive drive, in that case they will need to hold it and prevent the Russians from blowing it.

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www.thedrive.com

Bridge Appears In Chernobyl Exclusion Zone That Could Give Russia Unique Access To Ukraine

The construction of a pontoon bridge across the Pripyat River comes as concerns persist that Russia may be about to attack Ukraine.
www.thedrive.com www.thedrive.com
 
There was a lot of fighting near and in Irpin about 5 miles north of the main highway west into Kyiv. It looks like that highway into Kyiv is still open and will remain so IMHO, there are are also several rail lines open into Kyiv.
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Here is an image of just north of Irpin along a natural defensive line of a stream and marsh, open ground. It is a very built up area on the approaches to this area, urban warfare country and a bridge over the stream that can or has been blown. The Ukrainians have been getting lot's of arms since this began and are furiously training new combat troops. This illustrates the difficulty the Russians will have and how hopeless their task with the available forces.
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Vlad might be pissed and motivated, but he lacks the money and military power and needs to preserve some. It will be weeks before he can act on a large scale and I doubt he can.
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As the Russian army struggles in Ukraine, the West braces for what Putin might do next

The war has not gone according to the Kremlin's plan. There could be escalation ahead.



An explosion is seen in an apartment building after a Russian army tank fires in Mariupol, Ukraine, Friday, March 11, 2022. (Evgeniy Maloletka/Associated Press)

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Here is the strategic situation for Vlad in eastern Europe and Vlad's problem. Have a look at the map and the distances, notice the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic between Lithuania and Poland, it's about 50 miles from Belarus and isolated in the west. It is only 50 miles from north to south and TV can travel at least 100 km, with a good antenna, more if they want it to go in in a certain direction, radio reaches further. Both Kaliningrad and Belarus are or can get TV and radio broadcasts from the west and those broadcasts will be in Russian if they are not now. I imagine there would be support for TV people kicked off the air in Russia and who make their way west. The owners of the stations would be able to keep their foreign money if they did.

What do the people of Kaliningrad want now or in a few months, what would the polls say? What would a UN supervised referendum result in? An independent city state, join with a neighbor? Or stay with Russia and in the poor house? Wonder why there is more trouble in Russian speaking Belarus? Part of the answer might be western media coming over the borders and geography, they have much more information from the west and now from the south with Ukraine. If they think they have it bad now, just wait, Vlad will have to dig out the old cold war jammers, but they don't work on the digital TV frequencies that can be used! So Vlad has a big problem with information in these places, a potential UN referendum in one and a revolution in the other, as the dominos fall.
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Ukraine’s teenage students prepare to fight the Russian army - BBC News

As Russian forces approach Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, thousands of people are enlisting to defend the city.

These guys were in Brovary north east of Kyiv across the river, about 5 miles from eastern Kyiv and about 7 miles from the river.
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Vlad must have been squeezing Lukashenko's balls until his eyeballs popped out, to try and get Belarus to attack Ukraine. But I think Lukashenko will have trouble pulling it off at home, too much western and Ukrainian media, his army knows the truth, all the colonels do and might revolt if they are ordered into Ukraine and the population wouldn't like it either, this is not Russia, they have much more exposure to the west and to western media. We will see.

www.newsweek.com

Lukashenko Warns of 'Mercenaries,' 'Biological Weapons,' Chernobyl Attack

"There are foreign mercenaries moving along the Belarusian border towards the Chernobyl power station," Lukashenko claimed.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com
 
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Past performance is the best predictor of future behavior, works for Vlad too, some habits are hard to break. Vlad's KGB instructor was right, Vlad has a bad sense of risk. Well we've got his number now and in this week of critical fighting I figure Zelenskiy will have him by the balls. I'm certain there will be some big surprises for the Russians when the Ukrainians counter attack after Vlad's orcs get's worn down and far from their supply bases, they are still trading distance for time. They are stretching out Vlad's logistical support through territory that must have been well seeded with weapons on their line of advance, people told to hide and await orders behind the Russian lines. The next week will see fierce fighting and gains by the Russians and after that a counter attack by the Ukrainians with a big focus on the Russian logistics and supply lines. There are a lot of antitank weapons, NLAWS, Javelins and others too and I figure we will see them used in earnest. Right now the Russians should be running into a constant series of ambushes and blown bridges. If it gets bad for the Ukrainians the IDEs will proliferate where the Russians are advancing too.

Every day the Ukrainians grow stronger and with NATO help could field a 5 million man fit young army, well equipped and trained good enough to get the job done. If they are given enough time before becoming over run by the Russians they can make this happen. They were almost on par in regular troops with the Russian forces who invaded and they are all inside the country now. So what happens when the Ukrainians can field an additional 200K men in addition to those they have now? It will be weeks before Vlad can maneuver in the countryside, the ground won't dry out before the end of April probably and he will be bottle necked on the roads and attacked from every urban area they pass through. After the fighting force passes through an urban area, they will need to leave troops behind almost every mile of the way to Kyiv to secure his supply lines. The Ukrainians have been getting massive arms shipments flowing to the fighting areas or training bases for weeks and must have partisans waiting in hiding in these places on the Russian line of advance.

Vlad just picked on a little kid in good shape who happens to study martial arts and who suddenly just punched him in the face, broke his nose and knocked his two front teeth out. He's reeling on his back foot as his eyes water, the guys in his gang and the whole school are watching in the playground, as Vlad who is much bigger, circles throwing punches, in frustrated rage he sucker punches some little girls and kicks some younger kids standing looking, as blood runs down is face and he sees red, while being tormented and and stunned by the rain of blows and kicks. However the kid has a lead pipe hidden in his pants and he's waiting for Vlad to tire himself out, give him and opening and he'll clobber him between the eyes with the pipe and kick him in the nuts at the same time.

"You Must Hit First." Inside Putin's Past Writings

 
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