Past performance is the best predictor of future behavior, works for Vlad too, some habits are hard to break. Vlad's KGB instructor was right, Vlad has a bad sense of risk. Well we've got his number now and in this week of critical fighting I figure Zelenskiy will have him by the balls. I'm certain there will be some big surprises for the Russians when the Ukrainians counter attack after Vlad's orcs get's worn down and far from their supply bases, they are still trading distance for time. They are stretching out Vlad's logistical support through territory that must have been well seeded with weapons on their line of advance, people told to hide and await orders behind the Russian lines. The next week will see fierce fighting and gains by the Russians and after that a counter attack by the Ukrainians with a big focus on the Russian logistics and supply lines. There are a lot of antitank weapons, NLAWS, Javelins and others too and I figure we will see them used in earnest. Right now the Russians should be running into a constant series of ambushes and blown bridges. If it gets bad for the Ukrainians the IDEs will proliferate where the Russians are advancing too.
Every day the Ukrainians grow stronger and with NATO help could field a 5 million man fit young army, well equipped and trained good enough to get the job done. If they are given enough time before becoming over run by the Russians they can make this happen. They were almost on par in regular troops with the Russian forces who invaded and they are all inside the country now. So what happens when the Ukrainians can field an additional 200K men in addition to those they have now? It will be weeks before Vlad can maneuver in the countryside, the ground won't dry out before the end of April probably and he will be bottle necked on the roads and attacked from every urban area they pass through. After the fighting force passes through an urban area, they will need to leave troops behind almost every mile of the way to Kyiv to secure his supply lines. The Ukrainians have been getting massive arms shipments flowing to the fighting areas or training bases for weeks and must have partisans waiting in hiding in these places on the Russian line of advance.
Vlad just picked on a little kid in good shape who happens to study martial arts and who suddenly just punched him in the face, broke his nose and knocked his two front teeth out. He's reeling on his back foot as his eyes water, the guys in his gang and the whole school are watching in the playground, as Vlad who is much bigger, circles throwing punches, in frustrated rage he sucker punches some little girls and kicks some younger kids standing looking, as blood runs down is face and he sees red, while being tormented and and stunned by the rain of blows and kicks. However the kid has a lead pipe hidden in his pants and he's waiting for Vlad to tire himself out, give him and opening and he'll clobber him between the eyes with the pipe and kick him in the nuts at the same time.
"You Must Hit First." Inside Putin's Past Writings
