Fogdog
Well-Known Member
You show no understanding of what those sanctions are intended to do.
He has oil and the world needs it, so that bit of trade was carved out from sanctions and it's good thing too. For now. Europe is working out how to reduce its consumption of oil and gas from Russia. For now, the flow goes unabated. Cutting Nordstream 2 means there will be no increase in supply. Japan, India and China all buy oil from Russia. Total Russian revenue in 2021 from oil and gas was about $720 million per day. Costs have gone up, not double but assuming it does double, that means $1.5 Billion per day. The war is costing Russia 20 billion per day.
So, each month this war runs Russia takes in $45 B in oil revenue and spends $600 Billion to on the war. This is not sustainable. The sanctions are making it impossible for Putin to pay for replenishing the war material he uses. He can't keep this up. Even if he reduces the Ukrainian army so that it cannot conduct an open war, Putin would have to occupy Ukraine. How much does that cost? Are his people willing to send their kids into that kind of horror?
Regarding Nukes. That's up to Putin. The US is not going to send troops into Ukraine because they don't want to increase the chance of Putin making the mistake of launching them. It is a reason why they are seeking diplomatic solutions. But you must know that the US and NATO are not going to surrender to Putin just because he might launch. This is old brinksmanship. Nobody can win that kind of war. But the decision would be Putin's. We'll slag Russia if he does and MAD will be complete.
