there is almost always something you ignore in your posts...not the same thing in every post, but if there is anything in the context that is bad for the Ukrainians, you seem to just ignore it.
China is leaning towards giving russia aid, both food and "military" aid...probably ammunition and consumables like anti missile flares for aircraft
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/explainer-plausible-chinese-military-aid-russia-83451560
https://time.com/6157184/russia-military-china-ukraine/
and that will extend the conflict considerably.
don't get me wrong, i admire your optimism, but i don't think it's realistic to make predictions when you don't take these kinds of factors into account.
i hope the russians cave in and have to withdraw today, and that the sanctions in place remain there long enough to cripple putin from ever being able to do anything like this again, but that isn't how the world usually works..